After a brutally long offseason, college hoops fans can rejoice now that exhibition games are wrapping up and we finally have some real data to dissect for Kentucky Basketball.
When it comes to breaking down data and using it to predict outcomes, there aren’t many people on the planet better than Evan Miyakawa.
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A true basketball junkie, Miyakawa has developed algorithms covering various aspects of the sport, and he recently shared some insights that Kentucky fans are sure to find interesting.
First, Miyakawa took a stab at projecting the top 3-point shooters in college basketball this season. Much to the delight of Wildcat fans, Milan Momcilovic topped the entire list with a projected 43.4% clip from deep, up from 42.8% a year ago. The Iowa State transfer also has at least 100 more career attempts from long range than any other player in the top seven. Two other SEC players made Miyakawa’s top 10: Tennessee’s Tyler Lundblade checked in at No. 5, while Alabama’s Aden Holloway squeaked in at No. 9.
If Kentucky’s two exhibition games are any indication, you can count on Momcilovic to pick up right where he left off and torch opponents with that smooth release. In just under 65 minutes of play, he’s gone 6-of-11 from long range while scoring 16 and 15 points, respectively.
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If you watched the games, you saw how effortless Momcilovic makes it look, and given his proven pedigree, it came as little surprise to see him atop this preseason list.
Miyakawa also used his analytics to determine the ceiling and floor for each SEC Basketball team. The results may not delight Kentucky fans quite like the 3-point shooting projections did.
For this exercise, Miyakawa used his algorithms and put 10,000 games through a simulated season. The simulations projected Kentucky to finish 26th, with a ceiling of No. 6 nationally and a floor of No. 64.
Finishing No. 6 would likely have Kentucky in contention for a Final Four berth. However, finishing No. 64 would have the Cats flirting with a missed NCAA Tournament berth.
Hopefully, the Cats can outperform those expectations in 2027 in what will be a critical third year for Mark Pope and his staff.
