US inflation rose 0.4% from September to October, slightly above expectations but still a cooldown in price increases as the cost of gas dipped during the month.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release the usual year-over-year inflation figure as part of the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the price of a basket of goods and services, as data was not collected in October 2025 during the government shutdown.
But the newest data shows that prices are still increasing at a moderate pace. Economists estimate that, if interpolating the data for October 2025, the topline inflation figure for October 2026 would have been 3.9%, according to Oxford Economics. That would have been the highest its been since May 2026, when inflation reached 4.2%, a three-year high.
Higher energy costs driven by the Iran war have been the main factor behind increased inflation. Energy prices continued to rise slightly in October, rising 0.7% after going up 5.2% in September. In September, the overall monthly change in CPI from August was 0.6%.
The new data comes after a midterm election that will give Democrats control of Congress, in what was largely seen as a rebuke of Republicans over high prices. In their postmortem of the midterms, Republicans, including JD Vance, have specifically pointed to frustration over increased gas prices as a reason why the party fared so poorly in the election.
Gas prices cooled slightly in October, dropping from an average of $4.41 a gallon at the beginning of the month to $4.22 a gallon, prices are still more than $1 a gallon higher than a year ago, according to AAA. On Monday, the average price for a gallon at the pump fell below $4 for the first time since July.
The cost of diesel, which is used to power trucks, farming equipment, buses and trains, is nearly $2.50 a gallon higher compared with prices last year but has also been going down since October. Gas prices have continued to drop.
In September, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023 and are expected to hike rates again at their next meeting in December. Higher interest rates slow the economy by making borrowing money more expensive, and can slow inflation. The Fed’s target inflation rate is 2%, which it considers a stable pace for price increases.
Growth in the labor market surpassed economists’ expectations in October, giving more room for the Fed to hike rates. The unemployment rate has been relatively steady, hovering just above 4%.
Because today’s inflation is so closely tied to energy prices, it’s unclear how much and how quickly a rate hike could ease prices. But the Fed’s chair, Kevin Warsh, said the central bank is dedicated to making sure price increases ease up.
“Our job is to ensure that relative price changes in some sectors do not broaden across the economy, and that inflation expectations remain as they are anchored,” Warsh said on 28 October.
Consumer sentiment increased slightly at the end of October as gas prices eased, according to the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers. At the same time, the US stock market was experiencing a dip as investors voiced skepticism over the influx of AI spending.
“While sentiment lifted for lower- and middle-wealth consumers, it fell 5% for those with the largest stock portfolios in the wake of a relatively turbulent period in stock markets,” said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers, in a statement. “Moreover, consumers’ comments revealed growing anxiety over a possible AI bubble.”
