Something I have written about before and will continue to repeat: studying injury reports and accurately predicting which way major news will break is the biggest edge in sports betting right now.
Models and algorithms have gotten so sophisticated. The ability to price rest disparities, travel situations and motivation angles — common tropes among handicappers — are pretty easy to backtest, weight and reflect into the current odds. Often people say simply taking the best odds in the market and having multiple places to bet is the biggest edge. In my opinion, the biggest edge is collecting all the information regarding a players’ potential availability and pricing the probability he plays or not.
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The bettors and the oddsmakers are on a relatively even playing field here in terms of access to information. Whether it comes from coach and player interviews, beat reporters’ eyes and ears, practice videos or any other source, this information is out in the public and the ability to react to it is paramount. Star players dealing with ailments that lead to uncertainty on their playing status are going to cause such significant line movements that a bettor can always take the worst odds in the market and still gain huge edges by being right.
This week, amidst trade deadline talk and hitting the midseason point, my focus is on the injury report. Here are two early bets I like in Week 10.
From preseason priors to current form, this is the worst possible Monday Night Football scenario we could have imagined as fans as the 0-8 LA Chargers visit the 4-5 Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson is out for the season, Tyler Huntley is out with turf toe and Baltimore just acquired Jacoby Brissett in a trade with the Arizona Cardinals to become the immediate starting QB. On the Chargers side, Justin Herbert is dealing with an injury to his middle finger on his left hand that may cause him to be sidelined as well, meaning rookie DJ Uiagalelei would take over.
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The betting market has signaled so far that Justin Herbert will not play. The opening line was Baltimore Ravens -3.5 and it has been moved out to -5. This line will continue to move further out if Herbert is inactive, closer to Ravens -7, or it will be kicked back to Ravens -3 if Herbert does play.
My opinion here is that Herbert will play. The injury is a finger on his non throwing arm and the Monday X-rays came back negative. Herbert said, “Whatever I can do to be 100%, I am going to do,” and head coach Jim Harbaugh noted that Herbert “should be good to go.” This is a promising signal that Herbert will play, and some -5.5s already got kicked back to -4.5.
We have already seen Saints QB Tyler Shough play through broken bones on his non-throwing hand earlier this season. He was handing the ball off with his “good” hand despite the play design typically going the other direction. Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels came back quickly from a dislocated elbow on his non-throwing arm and is playing through the injury with a bulky brace. Those two injuries are relevant because they impacted the QB’s non-throwing arm, but also because both teams are really struggling and are more or less out of playoff contention already.
I will back Herbert to play and say this line closes near Chargers +3, so there is value on the +5 right now.
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Bet: Chargers +5
The Cowboys had two key late scratches before their Week 9 game against the Indianapolis Colts, as both WR George Pickens and CB Joey Porter Jr. were ruled out. Pickens is dealing with a hamstring injury while Porter Jr. is having ankle issues.
I had actually bet the Colts +5.5 on Saturday last week and factored them both at 80% or higher to play despite perhaps being limited in snap count or ability. Neither Pickens nor Porter Jr. missed a single practice last week; Pickens was limited in each and Porter was full in one practice and limited in the others. Cowboys head coach Brain Schottenheimer said he was hopeful both would play. They were late scratches, the line closed at Colts +3.5 and the Cowboys won by 4. It was a perfect encapsulation that betting before the news and getting on the right side of line movement really matters.
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This week, I expect both players to play. The market remains unsure, but with the upgrade in opponent and another week to get in limited practice, I suspect both will go this Sunday. If that is the case, the Cowboys will close +3 here, and grabbing the +4 before and winning on the key number represents a large early week value add.
The 49ers are likely to get WR Deebo Samuel back, but I don’t expect them to get WR Mike Evans healthy for this game. With Samuel, Pickens and Porter Jr as the key injuries, getting these right is the biggest factor in handicapping this game for closing line value.
Bet: Cowboys +4
