We’re on to the double-digit weeks starting here in Week 10, and we certainly know a ton about each team, who the quarterbacks like targeting, who teams trust to give the ball and how aggressive or conservative they are in high-leverage spots. That said, injuries can decimate real NFL teams and fantasy rosters all the same, and we saw the first “Black Monday” of the season in Week 9. Not only did we get Puka Nacua likely headed to IR for at least four weeks and potentially the rest of the season, but the Arizona Cardinals lost Michael Wilson to a neck injury for the rest of the season.
While losing some of your best players is never fun and can take some people out of fantasy, winning a championship while piecemealing your roster together can be incredibly memorable and rewarding. Of course, it’s always bad to lose a wide receiver who has been averaging 23.1 fantasy points per game, but you can’t pack it up! As bad as it feels, adding that waiver-wire wide receiver or running back who ends up going off during the playoff weeks and leads you to the promised land is exhilarating. And that, my friends, is how I came to be the proud owner of a Rashaad Penny Seahawks jersey at the beginning of 2022.
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However, can I interest you in Jacoby Brissett to the Ravens, Josh Downs to the Chiefs, Keenan Allen to the 49ers or Kirk Cousins to the Raiders? Trade deadline madness gave us these moves, which could potentially change the calculus for these teams and players for the rest of the fantasy season.
We’ve compiled the groupings of games here to make it easier to find the games you want:
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Block 1: WAS-NYG, NE-DET, KC-ATL, HOU-CLE, MIA-IND
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Block 2: JAC-TEN, MIN-GB, CAR-NO, BUF-NYJ
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Block 3: SEA-LV, LAR-ARI, SF-DAL, PIT-CIN, LAC-BAL
“The Outlook” will give you the details, stats, analysis, recommendations and everything else you need to make informed fantasy football decisions. Every fantasy-relevant player on each team will be profiled in this article. We want everyone reading this to bring home championships in their fantasy leagues!
I’m incredibly excited to bring this article to all of you this season, and I hope you enjoy the ride. If you have any questions, feel free to find me on Bluesky (@ktompkinsii.bsky.social) or tag me in a post with any lineup questions. I’ll do my best to answer them for you.
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Let’s get into it!
All game and implied point totals listed were compiled via DraftKings Sportsbook on Tuesday for WAS-NYG, NE-DET, KC-ATL, HOU-CLE and MIA-IND.
Teams on bye in Week 9: Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
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Favorite: Giants -2.5
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Game Total: 41.5
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Implied Point Total: Giants 22, Commanders 19.5
Must-Start Players: QB Jayden Daniels
RB Rachaad White
There’s nothing overly interesting here about White, as he is definitely a player who is a starting running back for one of the 32 NFL franchises. He has slight receiving equity in the Washington offense, but so does Austin Ekeler, who ran more routes (19) in Week 9 than White (13). White is also pretty inefficient on the ground and is really only worth starting if he gets into the end zone. Those opportunities can be thwarted if Jayden Daniels decides he wants to pull the ball down and run. So, to summarize, White is a solid volume play, but there are multiple avenues for that work to be taken away from him, whether it’s by his quarterback or the other running back in the backfield.
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Fantasy Advice: White is merely a flex play against the Giants in Week 10, who are right in the middle of the pack in terms of allowing fantasy points to opposing backfields.
Commanders WRs
Both Stefon Diggs (3-51-0, 69% routes) and Antonio Williams (3-25-0, team-leading 88% routes) had quiet days, as Van Jefferson (5-58-1) caught a touchdown in his first game as a Commander and Chig Okonkwo (6-56) collected some short-area targets from Daniels. Jefferson and Okonkwo both led Washington with seven targets apiece, but this Commanders offense is an “everybody eats” offense that lacks concentration, with nine players recording receptions. After Diggs, Williams and Okonkwo, no other Commanders player ran routes on more than 65% of dropbacks.
Fantasy Advice: With a Thursday NFC East date against the Giants looming, both teams will be looking to avenge their 27-27 tie in Week 5. Diggs and Williams are the only players who should be rostered and potentially started as flex plays for Week 10. Okonkwo is a low-end TE1 in a week when at least two regular starting tight ends (Dallas Goedert and Colston Loveland) are on a bye.
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Must-Start Players: WR Malik Nabers, TE Isaiah Likely
QB J.J. McCarthy
The Giants’ offense is plenty banged up, but it is getting healthier heading into this short week as they prepare to host the Commanders. McCarthy left Sunday’s game but returned, and he is listed on this week’s injury report with a hip injury. He’s practicing through it, and all indications are that he’s going to play Thursday night. While McCarthy’s surface stats (12-of-19, 127 yards; 22 yards rushing) are nothing to write home about, Washington has been a notorious pass funnel. The Giants also happen to employ Nabers and Likely, giving McCarthy two weapons he can use to his advantage and making him a sneaky spot start if you’re up against it at quarterback.
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Just to give you all a peek behind the curtain, I’m starting him because I’ve cycled through Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Malik Willis, Tyler Huntley and Gardner Minshew in a multi-quarterback league. So, if you don’t think McCarthy could be a viable starter, I’d say think again!
Fantasy Advice: This play is only for the risk-averse or those who don’t have many other options, but McCarthy could put up some usable numbers Thursday night. He’s an option; that’s all I’m saying.
Giants RBs
With Cam Skattebo practicing during this short week ahead of Thursday’s game against the Commanders, it seems he’s on track to play and resume his RB1 role for the Giants. After the strange Week 6 game in which Skattebo played just two total snaps, he handled 17 carries and put up 124 yards and a touchdown in Week 7’s game in Houston before missing Week 9’s game in Philadelphia following the bye. Perhaps that was always the plan to give Skattebo’s hamstring injury an extra week to heal after the bye, but it’s likely Devin Singletary works in as Skattebo’s backup against a Washington defense that has struggled against the pass.
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Fantasy Advice: Nothing is a lock with the Giants offense, but Skattebo getting healthy seems to make him a solid low-end RB2 play against a tougher Washington run defense that has held up while getting demolished by opposing passing games.
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Favorite: Lions -2.5
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Game Total: 51.5
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Implied Point Total: Lions 27, Patriots 24.5
Must-Start Players: QB Drake Maye
Patriots RBs
It’s looking like a foot issue for Rhamondre Stevenson will keep him out at least this week, with the possibility that it’s a multi-week knee tendon issue. That means the Patriots are staring down the barrel of Corey Kiner and Lan Larison, two very real NFL football players, I’m sure. Remember when the draft-day decision was between Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson? Life (and fantasy football injuries) truly come at you fast.
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I know a lot of very smart people have Kiner as a popular waiver-wire addition, and if you’re one of the people who stashed him on your fantasy roster, you’re wondering whether it’s safe to deploy him. He saw eight carries and turned those into 55 yards and a touchdown on just 11 snaps with the backups in the fourth quarter. The split between him and Larison figures to be extremely clean, with Larison taking the receiving work and Kiner handling most, if not all, of the carries. The Lions are a tough draw, and they’re traveling to Germany, so there are a lot of factors at play here.
Fantasy Advice: With the tough matchup and not much to draw from with Kiner, we’ll be conservative and call him a volume-based flex play. He’s unlikely to have much receiving work to boost his floor.
Patriots WRs
It does seem unlikely right now that A.J. Brown will play in Week 10, despite news that he’s traveling to Germany. Things are still up in the air, but Demario Douglas has been productive with Brown out of the lineup. He certainly has Drake Maye‘s eye, that’s for sure. More than any other New England receiver, anyway, as he led the team in everything with a 5-102 stat line on nine targets and a team-leading 80% routes per dropback. Mack Hollins (3-36-1) caught a touchdown pass in his return to the New England lineup while running routes on 74% of dropbacks. If you’re into that (I’m not, but he’s going to run routes on the outside, so maybe in deeper leagues?).
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Fantasy Advice: If Brown doesn’t play in Week 10 against Detroit, Douglas is the player I’m starting from this receiver group as a flex play. Hollins is also a cheap stash and a desperation plug-and-play option with routes-based upside.
Must-Start Players: QB Jared Goff, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR Jameson Williams
Well, the check was eventually going to come due for Williams, right? The lobster was too buttery and the steak was too juicy for fantasy managers with Williams, who had scored five touchdowns and finished as WR14, WR4 and WR12 over the last three weeks before Week 9’s dud against the Dolphins. Williams caught just one of his two targets for 31 yards, as the Lions were shockingly stymied in Miami. It’s just one game, and while we know that some peaks and valleys are simply the cost of doing business with Williams, we’re hoping it’s a one-week blip and not a multi-week trend.
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Fantasy Advice: After watching the Packers obliterate the Patriots’ secondary in Week 9, the Lions need to be salivating at this matchup against the team that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers in 2026. Fire up Jamo as a mid-range WR2 with overall WR1 upside across the Atlantic in Munich for Week 10.
TE Sam LaPorta
Since the Week 6 bye, LaPorta has been in a funk, and not in the good “George Clinton” way. More like the “somebody is microwaving fish in the communal break room at work” way. It’s not great! While everybody else is eating well in the hyper-condensed Lions passing game, LaPorta has drawn the short straw over the last few weeks. We’re talking 11 total targets, eight receptions and 83 total yards in the last three weeks against the Packers, Vikings and Dolphins. That’s near-unstartable territory.
That said, it’s Sam LaPorta. We know what he can do. We know what this offense can provide if you’re in the inner circle. Right now, the inner circle is out hootin’ and hollerin’ all over the field, while LaPorta is essentially Squidward looking out the window and watching them all have fun. If he weren’t a tight end, he would have been banished to the land of the waiver wire, but his tight end position gives him a little more rope.
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We’re at our wit’s end here. Please, LaPorta. Do something. Anything.
Fantasy Advice: Man… if you have to? The matchup is NOT great, to be clear. Still, LaPorta was drafted to be your starter. If you don’t have any other options, he’s worth tossing out there to see if he can get into the end zone.
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Favorite: Chiefs -3.5
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Game Total: 45.5
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Implied Point Total: Chiefs 24.5, Falcons 21
Must-Start Players: QB Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs WRs
The Chiefs’ passing game is really stuck in neutral right now, and I never thought I’d say that maybe Tyquan Thornton was the glue holding things together. However, he was the one pass-catcher consistently getting deep. Right now, it’s all short passes and reliance on YAC. I mean, Rashee Rice had a 0.1-yard aDOT on a team-leading seven targets (5-49), and Xavier Worthy (6-48) wasn’t much better with a 2.7-yard aDOT. Suffice it to say that Tuesday’s trade acquisition of Josh Downs and his 9.4-yard aDOT should help in this regard, but the Chiefs were so desperately in need of help in their receiving corps that they had to do SOMETHING. The offense needs some balance, and it cannot rely solely on Kenneth Walker III and late-game Emmett Johnson, as good as they both are.
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Fantasy Advice: As it stands right now, Rice is a WR3, and the newly acquired Downs is a wait-and-see option against the Falcons in Atlanta for Week 10. If the Chiefs come out and say Downs will run a specific number of plays, then we can tread lightly. The odds are that Downs will not run more than 30%-40% of routes per dropback in his first game as a Chief, less than a week after being traded.
TE Travis Kelce
We continue with the “Kelce is a floor play” sentiment in the lead-up to Week 10 because he just posted a floor-level fantasy tight end week. Again, no touchdown, but four receptions for 72 yards on six targets. It’s pretty bankable at this point, and it feels like there’s much more downside than upside if Kelce is going to remain stuck in the 9.0-11.0 fantasy points range he’s occupied for the last four weeks following Kansas City’s Week 5 bye. Not that there’s anything wrong with it, but it’s not going to win you leagues unless the rest of your team is amazing enough to paper over Kelce’s lack of upside.
Fantasy Advice: Kelce is smack dab in the TE1/TE2 streaming conversation, with a low ceiling and a high floor. Not a great place to be, but it’s certainly better than a basement-level floor. The Falcons just traded safety Jessie Bates, so Kelce’s outlook improves a tiny bit heading into Week 10. Still, if I’m looking for upside, Kelce isn’t the player I’m chasing.
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Must-Start Players: RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London
TE Kyle Pitts
After three consecutive games with at least one touchdown from Week 5 through Week 7, Pitts has cratered to just nine combined targets, five catches and 29 yards in his last two games. Averaging five targets per game over his last five games is somewhat passable. However, if the volume isn’t turning into actual receptions and yards, we just can’t take the plunge.
Fantasy Advice: If you’re looking for a touchdown-or-bust tight end play with SOME upside, Pitts fits the bill. Technically, it’s a good matchup for Pitts, as the Chiefs allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. However, with Pitts’ recent lack of production, he’s a volatile option for your fantasy lineups in Week 10.
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Favorite: Texans -4.5
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Game Total: 39.5
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Implied Point Total: Texans 22, Browns 17.5
Must-Start Players: QB C.J. Stroud, WR Nico Collins
Texans RBs
With David Montgomery yet to practice and his last game having come in Week 5, Woody Marks has run the show over the last four games. That said, Marks just isn’t very good, with three straight games under 4.0 yards per carry and no finish better than RB22 in any week. We have a full season and eight games under our belts with Marks, and the truth is that he’s just not an efficient runner and likely never will be. The Texans’ passing game is driving the ship, and Stroud is looking the best he has since his rookie season in 2023. Right now, the Texans’ running game is simply something to keep defenses honest rather than a reliable way to move the ball.
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Fantasy Advice: Cleveland is a middle-of-the-road defense against the run, but given Marks’ lack of efficiency this season and throughout his career, he’s just a volume-based flex play. You’re begging, pleading, crying and throwing up that offensive coordinator Nick Caley gets the offensive line to part the Red Sea and help Marks reach the end zone.
Must-Start Players: None
RB Quinshon Judkins
It was a somewhat disappointing day in Week 9 for Judkins, one that probably should have been better had Shedeur Sanders not run into the pulling guard on a fourth-and-1 and handed the ball off with the wrong arm across his body. That likely cost Judkins a touchdown. Aside from that, he averaged just under 3.0 yards per carry and was on the field for only 14% of routes. Judkins is squarely in the “two-down grinder” role alongside Dylan Sampson. It’s a pretty clean split, but Judkins is very Jordan Howard-esque in that it’s somewhat easy to predict what the offense is doing or wants to do when Judkins is on the field.
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That’s fine and dandy if you’re a team that gets a lot of snaps in positive game scripts. The Browns are not one of those teams, as they’ve won all five of their games by three or four points. So, all of that leads us to Week 10, with Judkins really just being a guy in a bad offense who gets double-digit rushing attempts and maybe a shot at a touchdown.
Fantasy Advice: The Browns seem content to trot Judkins out there for 13-18 carries a game and see what happens. Judkins has averaged 4.0 or more yards per carry in just one of eight games this season, so you’re really depending on volume to drive the bus here. The Texans are slightly below average against the run this season, so give Judkins low-end RB2 treatment as a volume-dependent grinder with the hope that he falls into the end zone.
Browns WRs
Volatility persists in this Browns offense, and a quarterback change didn’t help matters, with Sanders filling in for Deshaun Watson, who missed Week 9 with a concussion. Sanders will cede the starting job back to Watson, but both KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston continued their impressive rookie seasons while playing in the most dubious of circumstances. Concepcion and Boston led the Browns with six targets apiece, with Concepcion putting up a 4-85 line that included Sanders’ first touchdown pass and Boston catching all six targets for 98 yards.
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The duo ran routes on more than 90% of dropbacks. With Jerry Jeudy also present and accounted for as a distant third behind Concepcion and Boston, this trio is an incredibly condensed group at the top. Watson likely returns in Week 10 against his former team, but the volatility in the passing game is real, no matter who the starting quarterback is.
Fantasy Advice: Wildly, the Texans have allowed the second-most passing yards to fantasy receivers, so starting both Concepcion (high-end flex) and Boston (mid-range flex) could provide some solid scoring this week.
TE Harold Fannin Jr.
Fannin went without a target for the entirety of regulation and then got two targets with under two minutes left in overtime. The first came with 1:36 remaining. Then came a 39-yard catch, a stiff arm, a rumble, ANOTHER stiff arm and a final 15-yard run for the touchdown, giving the Browns a chance to win the game with a two-point conversion.
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All of that came after a game with Watson in which Fannin earned 12 targets and put up the overall TE2 performance with a 10-154 line. If that doesn’t show you how volatile this offense is, I don’t know what will. We can start him all we want (and trust me, I HAVE), but it’s like flipping a coin as to whether Fannin will be involved in the team’s offensive game plan or whether he’ll just be background shrubbery.
Fantasy Advice: I mean, we can’t put “Coin Flip Fannin” (I hate that I just coined that) in our tight end spot with any confidence, can we? He’s a streamer and someone to play based on matchups. Unfortunately, Fannin is facing the Texans, who allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. So, in most cases, he’s going to be a sit in Week 10.
This article originally appeared on The Huddle: The Outlook – Week 10 (WAS-NYG, NE-DET, KC-ATL, HOU-CLE, MIA-IND)
