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For the Houston Astros, a six-month season is poised to hinge on the final two weeks.
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A sweep at the hands of the AL-leading Rays over the weekend left Houston entering Monday’s off day with a one-game lead in the AL West over the Rangers. The Astros do own the head-to-head tiebreaker against Texas, giving them essentially a two-game lead with 12 games left in their regular season.
The showing against the Rays, in which the Astros totaled seven runs over three games, surely raised questions about their viability as an AL contender. But their more immediate concern must be simply making the playoffs and maximizing the reprieve offered by an awful division.
No team in the AL West entered Monday above .500. The Astros, at 75-75, had the division’s second-worst run differential at minus-53, worsened by a 14-4 blowout loss Sunday at Tropicana Field.
And yet, FanGraphs still granted them a 74.1% chance to win the AL West entering Monday. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections gave them 71.3% odds to win the division. An implosion by the Mariners, who are 10 games under .500 despite dominating Houston this season, only helps.
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“It’s right in front of us,” Astros manager Joe Espada said after Sunday’s defeat. “It’s up to us to grab it and continue to push forward. We control our own destiny.”
Somehow, they do. And although an NL East-leading Atlanta team will visit Daikin Park later this week, the Astros will play three of their final four series against teams with under-.500 records, starting with their three-game set against the Royals that begins Tuesday.
Espada, whose contract is set to expire after this season, is right. The Astros, for all their flaws, control their postseason fate with 12 games remaining. Whether it is realized rests in their hands.
At this stage in his career, each hit for Jose Altuve pushes him toward more exclusive company. But the second baseman reached a round number last Wednesday: 2,500.
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With a double against Phillies lefty Cristopher Sánchez, Altuve became the 103rd player to amass 2,500 hits in Major League Baseball, per Baseball Reference. He and Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman are the only active players to reach the benchmark.
Altuve joined Craig Biggio as the only players to total 2,500 hits with the Astros. And as of Monday, Altuve was one of three players with at least 2,500 hits, 250 home runs, 300 stolen bases and a career batting average of at least .300, joining Derek Jeter and Willie Mays.
Whether Altuve, who’s hitting .245 this season, will be able to maintain that .300 average remains to be seen. So do his chances of reaching 3,000 hits, a number 33 players have reached in MLB.
Altuve, 36, entered this season needing to average 153 hits over the final four seasons of his contract to reach 3,000 before it ends. He has 116 hits this season with 12 games to play. His current average would be a career-low for the three-time AL batting champion.
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Still, Altuve has built a career on defying doubts. He demurred when asked about 3,000 last Wednesday.
“Let’s go one hit at a time,” Altuve said. “I’m happy about the one that I got tonight, and we’ll see what happens in the future.”
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This article originally published at Houston Astros still control their playoff path, but can they right things to get there?.
