They say opposites attract. Well, Fleet Admiral Gial Ackbar didn’t say it, but he did warn about traps. The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets couldn’t be more diametrically opposed this season.
You may be wondering if the Bills are walking into a Meadowlands trap against the Jets in Week 10. Spoiler alert: It’s mostly impossible to answer if that’s true or not until the game ends.
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At 7-1, the Bills have the best overall record in the AFC. They’re in first place in the AFC East, with the 5-4 New England Patriots their next closest rival. Under the direction of new head coach Joe Brady, Buffalo hasn’t lost a beat. In fact, they’ve corrected several steps commonly tripped over in the past, just to ensure they’re in pocket.
There is one hiccup, if you consider losing to the Patriots as such. At the time, they were a reeling team… that, well, somehow remember its championship ways against the Bills. It was just a three-point loss, but, yes, to perhaps Buffalo’s most unlikable rival.
That’s reason enough to suspect that quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills are locked in, ready to fight off a 2-7 Jets team hoping to play the role of Jersey Devil. Buffalo has won four games in a row, while the Jets have lost four consecutive games. You know the Jets would love to end that win streak and begin one of their own.
It’s not going to be an easy task. In fact, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Bills as 7.5-point road favorites (-7.5) over the Jets. As of publishing, the over/under was at a surprising o/u 50.5. Does that imply a big day for Buffalo’s offense?
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The Bills boast an elite offense, best in the NFL in points per game (32.0), total yards per game (386.4), and they lead the league in first downs (189). Under Brady, Buffalo wants the ball first and they’re going to score (most of the time. Usually, a lot of points: As in 33 points or more in five of eight games played in 2026.
Interestingly, the Bills are a run-first team and they boast a very difficult attack. Running back James Cook III is currently fifth in the NFL in rushing yards with 814 yards on 169 carries. He’s just 66 yards behind the league leader (Bijan Robinson), and could very well contend to repeat as the NFL rushing champion this season.
It’s good that Buffalo has a potent run game, because their core of pass catchers still leaves just a bit too much on the bone in any given week. It’s not that Allen and the offense struggle through the air, but it’s fair to say it resembles something other than prolific. Strange, right? I mean, there’s little to complain about because for as unconventional as it proves statistically, the passing attack passes the eye test.
Important or not, no Bills pass catcher — wide receiver, tight end, or running back — is on pace for a 1,000-yard season. They still find plenty of consistent success with running back Ty Johnson (NFL’s most efficient receiving RB) and wide receiver Khalil Shakir catching passes. But the team struggles with separation at the catch point.
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They won’t play backups and emergency quarterbacks every week, and Geno Smith does provide a much tougher test for Buffalo’s defense in Week 10. Smith has a fantastic complement of pass catcher who as a group have the best route win rates through nine weeks of play (per SFdata9ers).
You read that correctly, and to the tune of 20.8%, which is better than five percentage points above the second-place unit of the Cincinnati Bengals (15.1%). As for the Bills’ struggles there, they’re second-to-last in the NFL with just a 7.2% route win rate.
If Smith has time, he’s finding someone winning routes and very open better than one in five passes. Buffalo needs to respect the Jets’ passing game. It’s a situation that should have cornerbacks Christian Benford, Davison Igbinosun, Dee Alford, and Maxwell Hairston wide awake and ready to strike.
