Shohei Ohtani is once again breaking baseball. Through his first 10 starts of the 2026 campaign, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ two-way phenom is pitching at a historical level. With a minuscule 0.74 ERA, he looks virtually unhittable. Yet, despite putting up numbers that rival the greatest pitching seasons of the Modern Era, Ohtani is far from a lock to take home the National League Cy Young Award.
Here is a breakdown of why the game’s most popular and dynamic player might not win pitching’s highest honor.
First, let’s acknowledge just how absurd Ohtani has been on the mound.
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The Insane Pace: His 0.74 ERA through 10 starts is the third-lowest of any pitcher since earned runs became official in 1913. Only Jacob deGrom (0.56 ERA in 2021) and Juan Marichal (0.59 in 1966) have posted better marks. In 2021, deGrom was an All-Star and got Cy Young votes despite only pitching 15 games due to injury. Juan Marichal in 1966 pitched 92 innings through his first 10 starts. These extreme seasons show how insane Ohtani is pitching right now.
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The Outward Metrics: Ohtani has pitched to a great 0.787 WHIP with 67 strikeouts and only 18 walks, a 3.72 K/BB ratio.
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The Underlying Metrics: The underlying metrics love him. He has a 100th percentile Pitching and Breaking Run Value and a 98th percentile Fastball Run Value. While his xERA is over three times greater than his actual ERA, it is still in the 96th percentile. New to this year, his over 50% groundball rate has been a key factor in his ability to limit runs at an elite rate.
There is no argument against Ohtani’s talent, but his workload shows a terrible weakness.
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The Six-Man Rotation: In order to protect Ohtani’s arm and their investment in him, the Dodgers have exclusively used a six-man rotation this year. Because of this, his innings totals naturally lag behind the rest of the league.
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Innings Deficit: On June 8, he sits at just 61 innings pitched. At this pace, he is projected to finish the season around 155-160 innings and not qualify for the ERA title.
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Historical Precedent: Over the last 20 years, the lowest innings total for a full-season starting pitcher to win the Cy Young is 167 (Corbin Burnes in 2021). This Cy Young voting was also one of the closest all time between Burnes and his antithesis, known workhorse Zack Wheeler, who pitched 213.1 innings.
While Ohtani is preventing runs better than anyone, the National League is packed with aces who are racking up volume, massive fWAR numbers and elite counting stats.
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Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): Having just come off a 50.2 inning scoreless streak, the longest by a Phillie since 1893, Sánchez has placed himself as the favorite for the NL Cy Young race. He ranks second in innings in the NL and has a 99th percentile Pitching Run Value and 100th percentile Offspeed Run Value. He leads NL (pure) pitchers in fWAR with 3.6, just edging out Jacob Misiorowski.
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Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers): Milwaukee’s flamethrower (99th percentile Fastball Velo) has the highest ceiling of any current pitcher. Misiorowski leads all NL arms with an absurd 116 strikeouts over 78 innings, leading to a 100th percentile K% (38.4%). For voters who look for batter dominance, Misiorowski is putting up the traditional punch-out totals that Ohtani (67 Ks) is missing.
Ohtani is having one of the most efficient pitching seasons in baseball history. But unless the Dodgers take the training wheels off his workload, or his NL competitors stumble in the second half, the sheer volume discrepancy will likely keep the hardware out of his hands.
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