The Houston Rockets are staring down the barrel of a 3-1 deficit in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. And, barring an improbable, unprecedented and downright impossible 3-0 comeback, an exit in the next few days.
That’s led to plenty of theorizing around the Rockets’ upcoming offseason moves, with many rightfully thinking something needs to happen following the underwhelming season.
Michael Pina of the Ringer’s piece was especially notable, saying as many as 22 of 30 teams could show ‘varying degrees of interest’ in acquiring superstar forward Kevin Durant.
Having joined Houston in the offseason, Durant has been as advertised when on-court, averaging 29.0 points on 52% shooting across 78 regular-season games, though he’s never quite synced up in Houston, likely due to the lack of a true point guard with Fred VanVleet’s offseason injury. Still, VanVleet isn’t the difference between a first-round exit and contention, and Durant’s age at 38 could play into him looking to greener pastures this offseason, which Houston might oblige.
But what would Houston actually need to get back in trading Durant?
First, we’ll start with what they gave up.
In a deal that involved a record seven teams, the Rockets sent over young guard Jalen Green, a crucial role player in Dillon Brooks, a lottery pick that would become Khaman Maluach, as well as multiple second-round draft picks. It was formerly seen as a thinner package for Durant, though Houston could very well have used plenty of those players and assets over the last calendar year.
Value certainly isn’t linear in the NBA, but Durant’s season was not indicative of fall-off. He ranked within the top-15 in the entire league in points per game, shooting better from the field than all but reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Even more, while he’s missed three of the four postseason games due to unfortunate injuries, he was durable during the regular season, playing in all but four games.
The Rockets would very likely need to see return equal to what they sent Phoenix a season ago, seeing a valuable contributor, a budding young player and either more young prospects or first-round picks. Otherwise, there’s little reason to trade Durant, with him still able to offer leading scorer tendencies, and VanVleet set to return next year.
The odds are that the Rockets would likely have suitors should they want to trade Durant, given Pina’s reporting of 22 interested teams, though they’ll just as easily be able to hang onto the superstar.
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