You can play it safe in fantasy football each week and usually be in alright shape at the end of the day. But that isn’t any fun. Dare to be bold. Our Yahoo analysts share their one bold prediction for fantasy in Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season.
To be clear, I was considering this as the bold prediction for Week 5 even before we got news that Michael Pittman Jr. will miss multiple weeks with a foot injury. Pittman and Aaron Rodgers’ connection hasn’t gotten off to a great start with the veteran receiver missing so much time.
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While I’d be hesitant to say Rodgers has a pristine connection with Wilson, he has emergency as a key variable in the offense, particularly as an answer against man coverage. Wilson averages 2.53 yards per route and has gained a first down on 10.9% of his routes against man coverage through four weeks. He is far and away the leading player in both categories.
On tape, you’ve seen some nice wins with Rodgers finding him in critical spots for chunk gains. The Colts have backed off their man coverage rate from early in the season but still rank inside the top seven, per Fantasy Points Data. Wilson can snag a few big plays in this week’s matchup. — Matt Harmon
Wilson will once again serve as the Seahawks’ lead back while Jadarian Price remains on injured reserve and Zach Charbonnet sits out at least another week. There’s no reason for Seattle to go away from Wilson after his 120-yard, two-touchdown performance that made him the RB6 overall in Week 4.
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Next up is a 49ers defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs, including double-digit days to Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, Jeremiyah Love and RJ Harvey over the first month. In their final regular season encounter with the Niners last season, Seahawks runners (Kenneth Walker, Charbonnet) combined for 230 scrimmage yards and a score, en route to both finishing as top-12 fantasy RBs. A couple weeks later in the playoffs, they combined for 165 yards and three TDs against San Francisco.
My confidence in Wilson has also increased following a season-high four targets and 39 receiving yards, while running a route on 35% of the dropbacks last Sunday. That’s notable for a player who traditionally has not had a significant role in the passing game. You can confidently start Wilson until Charbonnet returns in the coming weeks. — Justin Boone
My rankings reflect this. Brissett has scored 18+ fantasy points 10 times in his last 16 starts dating back to last season, and they are typically easy to point out, as he’s more sensitive to great defenses than others. The Lions are just that. This game has a wild 54.5-point game total, and the Cardinals are at home with their skill group healthy.
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Detroit’s secondary is not healthy, nor has the man-coverage corners to run the scheme they want to deploy. They’ve also allowed the most fantasy points to TEs this season, so Trey McBride should feast as their safety blanket, while Michael Wilson, and even Marvin Harrison Jr., have matchup advantages down the field. The Cardinals are fifth in projected points (24.5), and we know how game script will be with the Lions likely scoring at will against Arizona’s 28th-ranked scoring defense. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow may not have his star WRs, nor will be pushed by the Dolphins offense, and Brock Purdy faces the best defense in the NFL with a 21.25-point team total. — Hayden Winks
If we had any questions about Houston’s passing game, Nico Collins gave us the answers last Sunday. During his two-game absence, no Texans pass-catcher reached a 20% target rate. Sure, Dalton Schultz partly filled in the gap against my Bengals (who doesn’t, though?). But Collins immediately walking into a 31% target share and a third of the air yards shouldn’t be a surprise. And C.J. Stroud having his only days on the positive side of any efficiency metric when No. 12 was on the field isn’t a coincidence. Houston’s duo now gets to face a Titans defense that’s one of the three teams with bottom-10 marks in pressure rate and YPG allowed to WRs. Outside of Malik Nabers’ WR55 dud in Week 3 (Giants skewed run-heavy), No. 1 receivers against Tennessee have finished as the WR23, WR5 and WR7. With volume alone, Collins is in line for another top-six finish in Week 5. — Chris Allen
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I’ve been impressed by David Blough. Why? His plan to cause a communication breakdown at the safety spot for the Seahawks was among the best I’ve seen — utilizing motion and quick snaps to force confusion. Unfortunately, in-game circumstances have prevented that from showing itself for four straight quarters.
With Jayden Daniels back and the Giants struggling to stop the run and create pressure, the Commanders have a great chance of staying in rhythm on early and late downs. So who benefits the most? Obviously Stefon Diggs, but look out for Antonio Williams if Terry McLaurin misses this game, as the rookie has really caught the eye both outside and inside. Washington rotates four receivers, but if Williams keeps on this trajectory, he might be undeniable in 3-WR sets. — Josh Norris
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Michael Wilson will finish Week 5 as a top-five fantasy receiver.
Wilson enters Sunday with 30 targets over his past two games, including 17 against San Francisco and 13 against New York. That volume is supported by a 27% target share, a 35.7% first-read share and eight red-zone targets through four weeks.
Now, he draws the matchup every receiver wants. Detroit has allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers, including a league-high 63.4% success rate and 0.77 EPA per target. Every receiver to earn at least seven targets against the Lions has averaged 30 fantasy points. Arizona-Detroit also carries one of the week’s highest projected totals, creating the exact environment needed for another double-digit target afternoon.
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Wilson does not need a fluky two-touchdown game to get there. Give him 10 catches, 120 yards and one score, and he pushes past 28 PPR points. The usage is already elite. This matchup turns that usage into a week-winning ceiling. — Ray Garvin
Brock Purdy is one of my favorites, but we need to be realistic about this date with Seattle. The Niners were smashing most teams at the end of last season, but the Seattle defense held the answer key. Purdy faced the Seahawks twice in January (once in the playoffs) and the results were a mess: nine points scored, no touchdowns, 267 total passing yards. The bold call is for Purdy to fall outside the top 15 at the position this week; I’m benching him in one key spot for Jordan Love. — Scott Pianowski
Rome Odunze’s slow start came to an end in Week 4 after a grueling three weeks for fantasy managers. Nobody started him last week, and most aren’t considering him for this week. It’s not all perfect, but Tyson Bagent in this matchup can cause another spark in your flex spot. The Packers have struggled specifically against receivers on the outside, where Odunze has lined up on 76% of routes this season. Drake London had 194 yards, Justin Jefferson had two touchdowns and even Adonai Mitchell was targeted 12 times. Bagent isn’t Caleb Williams, but he provides value in his own way playing through the system and completing 70% of passes last week, much like Case Keenum in Week 3. It’s time to puff your chest out and plug Odunze into those lineups. — Joel Smyth
