The Detroit Tigers were down six runs before they came to bat in the second inning at Wrigley Field on July 21. The Chicago Cubs sent their first seven hitters to base against Framber Valdez, who threw 42 pitches and recorded two outs. The Tigers needed Ty Madden to finish the first inning of what became an 11-2 loss.
Valdez still gave Detroit 174 innings over 31 starts, a workload the club needed as injuries disrupted its rotation. But his ERA rose from 3.66 with the Houston Astros in 2025 to 4.03 in his first year with the Tigers. With Tarik Skubal gone, Detroit needs more from the most experienced arm in its projected 2027 rotation.
Two First Innings Did Outsized Damage
According to Baseball Savant, Valdez had a 6.75 ERA in the first inning and a 3.45 ERA across all subsequent innings. More than half of his 23 first-inning earned runs came in two starts. The Cubs scored six in July, and the Minnesota Twins scored six on April 8 in a game the Tigers lost by two runs.
Valdez had a 3.41 ERA across his other 29 opening frames. That puts the size of those two innings in perspective. At Wrigley, a leadoff triple turned into a bases-loaded jam after a walk and a hit batter. Four straight singles followed. By the time Valdez struck out his first hitter, Chicago had scored four runs.
The strikeout decline made it harder for Valdez to stop rallies once they started. His strikeout rate fell from 23.3% to 17.8%, per Statcast. Hitters missed on 31.8% of their swings against his curveball, down from 43.7% with Houston. The loss of those swings and misses was already apparent in Detroit’s first half.
Detroit Already Tried an Adjustment Worth Keeping
Manager A.J. Hinch told MLB.com that the Tigers used Valdez’s warmups to practice landing his breaking ball early in games. Valdez also moved toward the middle of the pitching rubber and threw more curveballs than sinkers in September. He posted a 1.93 ERA over four starts that month and retired the first nine hitters he faced in his final outing against the Washington Nationals.
The Tigers can build on that by giving hitters a reason to respect the curveball from the first trip through the lineup. If Valdez can land it for a strike early in a count, he has another way to get ahead when hitters come out looking for his sinker. With two strikes, he can use the same pitch below the zone to finish an at-bat without needing a play behind him.
Detroit will have room to evaluate younger starters, including River Ryan, whom it acquired in the Skubal trade. Valdez can make that transition easier by turning his regular workload into more games the Tigers can win. The first sign of a rebound will be what he does when an opponent puts runners on before he has settled in.
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