Opinion: An expert believes land values are down 40 to 70 per cent in the area, yet that is not being reflecting in property tax assessments
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VICTORIA — The B.C. Supreme Court recognition last year of Aboriginal title over private land in Richmond is having far-reaching effects on property owners, developers, lenders — and property appraisals there and elsewhere in B.C.
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So says Paul Sullivan, an expert in property valuation at Vancouver-based Ryan LLC, in an interview published this week with B.C. Business Council vice-president David Williams.
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The Aug. 7, 2025, decision by Supreme Court Justice Barbara Young recognized Aboriginal title for the Cowichan Nation and private (fee simple) title for landowners over the same area.
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“The Cowichan decision has introduced the concept of a dual interest in land,” says Sullivan. “Two parties may simultaneously hold legitimate claims to the same property.
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“This is genuinely unprecedented. I am not aware of any established methodology for appraising a property where the nature of the underlying title is legally unresolved.”
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Since the decision came down, there have been no recorded sales of properties in the affected area in Richmond, according to Sullivan.
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“No sales does not mean no impact on value,” he said. “It likely means the opposite — that potential buyers are simply stepping back.”
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The absence of sales is not for lack of trying.
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He’s talked with owners who have tried in vain to sell single-family homes, townhouses or apartments in the Cowichan claim area.
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“They tell me they’ve reduced their asking price several times, but have not been able to attract an offer. The market in the claim area appears frozen and those homeowners are nervous.”
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Nor is that a surprise, given what he’s hearing from developers, investors, and lenders.
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“When I ask how they would approach valuing a property subject to an Aboriginal title claim, the overwhelming response is: They wouldn’t be a buyer,” said Sullivan.
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“A developer can model construction costs with reasonable accuracy. What they cannot model is end value if title certainty doesn’t exist. If you are off by 10 to 20 per cent on the sellout value, you can be wiped out.”
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In the absence of actual sales, appraisers have developed hypothetical estimates of the impact of the court decision.
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“Under reasonable assumptions, a hypothetical income-producing commercial property in the Cowichan claim area could currently be worth 30 to 60 cents on the dollar, a 40 to 70 per cent valuation loss relative to pre-August 2025,” says Sullivan.
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“On a leveraged property, that sort of loss would be enough to wipe out the equity. It could even leave a property in negative equity where the loan is greater than the property’s value.”
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Appraisers have also tried to limit their own legal liability when preparing estimates.
