NEW YORK — It has largely been forgotten to history, but the last time Coco Gauff came in as the US Open favorite, her first-round match turned into an anxiety check. Down a set to Laura Siegemund, whose tricky strokes and gamesmanship got under Gauff’s skin, it forced her to dig deep right away en route to her first major title three years ago.
There was a moment in Gauff’s 2026 debut Tuesday at Arthur Ashe Stadium when things could have taken a similar course. After cruising through the first set and quickly breaking to start the second against, Gauff’s opponent Zeynep Sonmez started redlining.
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In tennis parlance, redlining is essentially when an underdog decides they have nothing to lose, starts taking big risks and gets into a groove where every shot seems to go in. In a blink, Gauff went from cruising to a quick victory to down 2-3 and facing a break point. With Sonmez taking huge cuts at the ball and landing some heavy punches, it looked like things might get complicated.
But Gauff in 2026 is not as easily flustered under the weight of heavy expectations as she was at age 19. Instead, Gauff can now turn matches like this into just another day at the office, raising her game on cue to wrap up a 6-3, 6-4 win in 80 minutes.
Though Gauff’s form was uneven in the first part of the tennis season, there’s a reason why she looks like a good bet to win her second US Open this year. Since the start of Wimbledon, Gauff is 16-2 and won the Cincinnati title in dominating fashion — similar to the run of form she found in 2023 when she rode the wave all the way to her first Slam.
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The other thing in Gauff’s favor: There are major questions about the rest of the field. No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka has been in a funk all summer, and No. 2 Elena Rybakina withdrew from Cincinnati after injuring her foot (though she won her first-round match Tuesday relatively easily). Other contenders have been inconsistent lately, and this summer’s Slam winners — French Open champ Mirra Andreeva and Wimbledon winner Linda Noskova — have struggled adjusting to their new status in the game.
That leaves Gauff as the woman to beat this time, especially in New York where she is arguably on par with Carlos Alcaraz as the biggest star and fan favorite.
Because she is so popular and carries a high ranking, Gauff is always expected to do well in the Slams. But Gauff’s track record has been defined by periods where she wins a lot of matches on the regular tour without playing very well, then crashing out early in majors.
But when she’s really playing well, you can see a big result coming from a million miles away. And everything in her game right now suggests that she’s in a great place: The serve is firing, the forehand is solid enough and lately she’s been getting huge payoffs from getting to the net with frequency and intention.
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Gauff is arguably the best player in women’s tennis at masking her flaws. But when she isn’t struggling with any flaws, she’s extremely hard to beat.
Obviously, there’s a long way between now and Sept. 12 when the women’s champion is crowned. But after losing a heartbreaking Wimbledon semifinal to Karolina Muchova in a third-set tiebreaker, Gauff’s game has taken off on the hard courts.
Turning back a challenge from Sonmez without too much drama was exactly the kind of match she would have drawn up to start a run to the title. Now she just needs to do it six more times.
