With the influencers, matches ending shortly before sunrise and the American men trying to end a slump and win a major for the first time in almost a quarter century, the women’s draw of the 2026 U.S. Open may not have gotten enough play.
Which is funny because the stars, all in high gear, have played plenty. All four top seeds have advanced to the semifinals, the first time this has happened at a major since 2009. Some have taken the express train, while others have taken the scenic route. All have been pushed. All have persisted. And here we are, the best four—Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff— in the final four, which makes for a pair of spellbinding semifinals.
The first semifinal pits Pegula against the two-time defending champion Sabalenka—one player trying to win her fifth major, the other her first. There are similarities and contrasts here. Both players haven’t necessarily been at their best in New York, but have figured out ways to win. In Sabalenka’s case, it was a quarterfinal epic against Linda Nosková, the Wimbledon champion, which ended in a decisive third-set tiebreaker with a decisive second-serve ace.
In the case of Pegula, it was crawling on dirt, eating leaves and grinding through to an ugly win against countrywoman Emma Navarro. Stalwarts at the top of the sport, these two are no strangers to the public, nor to each other. This will mark their 14th meeting. Sabalenka leads the head-to-head, and perhaps more critically, has never lost to Pegula in a major.
Yet, Pegula has had the steadier year—she’s already won 50 matches—and might be the player you’d least like to face when your shots are missing your range, or your self-confidence is flagging. Like so many late tournament matches with significant stakes, managing the occasion is as critical as managing the power-control demands of the sport. Will a highly partisan crowd lift Pegula, or weigh her down with still more pressure? We’ll predict Sabalenka wins in three sets.
In the other match, fresh off three-set wins, 2023 champion Gauff plays Rybakina, whose quarterfinal win secured her the WTA No. 1 ranking for the first time in her career. For the winner of the previous hard-court major (Rybakina beat Sabalenka to win the 2026 Australian Open), it won’t matter much if she doesn’t emerge with a trophy. Rybakina is that driven.
The two have met only twice before, but both matches were on North American hard courts. Four years ago, when Gauff was just 18, she beat Rybakina in a dramatic match in Canada. Last month, on the same court, Rybakina returned the favor and beat Gauff in three sets.
This match presents a contrast of styles: Rybakina’s offense vs. Gauff’s defense. The power serve of Rybakina (the best in the women’s game) vs. Gauff’s sheer persistence. An extrovert vs. an introvert. A fan favorite vs. a player who is, by her own preference, opaque, despite Hall of Fame credentials. We predict another three-setter with Gauff coming through to set up a rematch of the 2023 final—a match that she won.
Add us as a preferred source on Google
