Lottery reform is coming to the NBA, solving a significant league-wide problem.
But is it creating a bigger one?
League officials informed their 30 top basketball executives this week that new anti-tanking reforms will go into place next season, a source briefed on the call confirms to Sports Illustrated. The reform, which has been called the “3-2-1 lottery” will expand the lottery to 16 teams, flatten odds and create a relegation zone where the bottom three teams will be penalized with fewer lottery balls for the No. 1 pick. ESPN first reported the NBA’s proposal.
Under the new system, the lottery will be expanded from 14 to 16 teams to include the loser of the seven-seed vs. eight-seed play-in game. Teams that do not qualify for the playoffs or play-in tournament but stay out of the relegation zone—designated as spots four through 10—would get three lottery balls each. Teams with a bottom-three record would land in the relegation area and would have just two lottery balls. Those teams would have a floor of the 12th pick while the rest of the 13 lottery teams could fall as far as the 16th pick.
There could be minor changes to the format, sources tell SI. On the call with league officials, some executives expressed that the floor for a bottom-three team should be no further than the 10th spot. Others think it should be even lower.
In addition, no team would be able to win the first overall pick in consecutive years or be able to win three consecutive top-five picks. Teams also would not be able to protect picks in the 12 to 15 spots. The NBA would also have expanded disciplinary authority to regulate tanking. That could include the option to reduce teams’ lottery odds or modify teams’ draft positions.
A vote on the new proposal is expected to take place at a meeting of the Board of Governors on May 28.
Good news, right? Tanking had become the scourge of the NBA, with nearly a third of the teams showing no interest in winning games after the All-Star break. In this proposal, the NBA doesn’t just disincentivize tanking—it outright punishes it. A relegation zone will force teams to try to claw out wins down the stretch to avoid having their lottery odds reduced. That will (theoretically) significantly increase the quality of play in the final weeks (or months) of the regular season.
Here’s the thing, though: Not every bad team is a tanker. Sometimes bad teams are just … bad. It could be because of an injury, a trade or a player leaving in free agency a year before. The goal of the draft should be to get good players to the bad teams. This reform has the potential to be catastrophic to the bad teams that can’t help but be bad.
Assume the rule was in place this season. Utah wouldn’t have mailed it in before the All-Star break. Indiana, either. Washington probably doesn’t let Trae Young and Anthony Davis enjoy paid vacations in the second half of the season.
In that scenario, Sacramento, which finished with the fifth-worst record, would probably slide into the “relegation zone.” New Orleans, which didn’t have any incentive to win and still sucked, might fall into that range, too. In the NBA’s proposal, two of the worst teams, teams that were largely just bad, could end up with the 11th and 12th picks. Imagine suffering through that kind of season only to be in position to draft a role player.
That’s not the only nightmare. In this system, Orlando, which lost its play-in matchup to Philadelphia, would have a percentage chance to land the top overall pick. The Magic are up 3–1 on Detroit in their first-round series. If they hold on, they would have a decent shot at beating the winner of Cleveland and Toronto in the next round. A conference freaking finalist could end up with a top-three pick.
Look—the NBA knows this is a strong reaction. Maybe an overreaction. It’s probably why the reform includes a sunset provision that frees the league to scrap it in 2029. But the way the NBA likely sees it, teams did this to themselves. If tanking didn’t become a systemic infection, the league wouldn’t have to nuke it away.
But they are, and there will be collateral damage. The chief offenders of tanking this season won’t be in this mix in the next one. Utah will add a top-five pick to a loaded young lineup, Washington will do the same to a core headlined by Davis and Young, Indiana will add a piece to play alongside a returning Tyrese Haliburton. Brooklyn has to improve eventually. Other teams will be left to pay for their crimes.
Nevertheless, the league will push forward. One way or another the NBA was going to address the tanking issue and put a stop to teams intentionally trying to lose games. Problem solved, NBA. Hopefully you didn’t just create a bigger one.
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