As the New York Mets explore ways to upgrade their roster heading into 2027, the trade market could be their best avenue to address several pressing needs.
With a relatively weak free-agent class outside of Tarik Skubal, David Stearns and the rest of the front office may have to get creative this winter. That could mean making some bold decisions involving players already on the roster.
One player worth considering as a potential trade chip is Zac Thornton, whose unexpected breakout rookie season has made him one of the Mets’ most intriguing assets.
But while Thornton’s value may never be higher, would New York actually benefit from trading him?
Why Zac Thornton’s trade value may never be higher
Thornton entered the 2026 season as an unfamiliar name to most Mets fans. Although ranked among New York’s top pitching prospects, the left-hander was overshadowed by the likes of Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and even fellow prospect Jack Wenninger.
The 24-year-old struggled in his major league debut in May, allowing four runs in 4.1 innings against the Washington Nationals. The Mets sent Thornton back to the minors following that outing, and he didn’t return until late July. From that point forward, however, he gave New York little reason to consider moving him down again.
Overall, in 15 starts, Thornton posted a 3.42 ERA in 84.1 innings with 68 strikeouts, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 4.51 FIP.
The left-hander’s emergence was a breath of fresh air for New York, finding success with an approach that differs from most young pitchers. Thornton averaged just 92.3 mph on his four-seam fastball, a rarity for a young starter in today’s game.
Instead, the rookie relied on exceptional command and an ability to induce weak contact. Thornton’s 5.3% walk rate ranked in the 95th percentile per Baseball Savant.
His ability to consistently pound the strike zone helped him pitch deep into games, completing at least six innings eight times. Thornton also showed great poise and a flair for the dramatic in some of the Mets’ biggest games, highlighted by seven innings of two-run ball against the New York Yankees in September.
However, entering 2027, Thornton could be a candidate for regression, making the possibility of trading him while his value is high all the more enticing.
The left-hander’s underlying metrics raise some legitimate concerns about whether he can sustain his rookie success. Perhaps the most glaring is the sizable difference between his 3.42 ERA and 4.52 xERA. That gap suggests Thornton’s results were considerably better than his expected performance, raising the possibility of a drop-off next season.
Compounding those concerns, Thornton’s 17.8% whiff rate ranked among the lowest in baseball, making him heavily reliant on his command and ability to induce weak contact. If his location isn’t as sharp next season, he could have a much harder time finding success without the ability to consistently miss bats.
And while Thornton’s fastballs performed well, combining for a run value of +7, his breaking and offspeed pitches combined for a -6 run value.
All this is to say that while Thornton enjoyed a remarkable rookie season, the future may be more uncertain.
Still, a 24-year-old left-hander with years of team control and an impressive rookie season under his belt would be an appealing asset for many teams. However, the Mets should resist the temptation to move him.
Why the Mets would be making a mistake trading Thornton
There are two key reasons why keeping Thornton is in the Mets’ best interest.
The first and most obvious is that New York already needs to upgrade its starting rotation this offseason. Trading away a pitcher who’s penciled into that rotation would only create another hole.
Stearns said during his end-of-season press conference that he would like to have 10-12 starting pitchers between the majors and minors heading into 2027. Moving a promising young starter like Thornton would only make that goal more difficult to achieve.
And while the Mets have several promising young arms outside of Thornton, there’s no guarantee how many will develop into reliable major league starters. Outside of Nolan McLean, every other young pitcher still has something to prove before the Mets can confidently count on them as long-term fixtures in the rotation.
The second reason is that while Thornton’s underlying metrics may not be particularly encouraging right now, that doesn’t mean they can’t improve. After all, the left-hander is just 24 years old and still coming into his own as a pitcher.
Both Thornton and the Mets recognize this. After his final start of the season, Thornton acknowledged that he still has more room to grow, expressing confidence that he can increase his fastball velocity next season. The left-hander said his goal is to sit between 94 and 96 mph.
Andy Green echoed that sentiment, suggesting Thornton needs to add more weight and muscle to his 185-pound frame to increase his velocity. Green also emphasized the importance of improving his secondary pitches as he continues to develop.
While trading Thornton when his value is this high may be enticing, the Mets would be better off holding onto him and giving him the opportunity to build on his rookie season. His future may be uncertain, but the potential reward of keeping him outweighs the risk of a possible decline.
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