After the 2021 season, a season that saw the Reds just miss the playoffs, the Cincinnati Reds decided that it was time to tear the big-league roster down and try to rebuild. The team traded players like Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, and Sonny Gray before the season started, and made moves later in the season that included ace Luis Castillo, Brandon Drury, Tyler Naquin, and Tyler Mahle. In 2023, they were projected to lose 100 games for the second consecutive season, but an influx of young talent ended what looked like a lengthy rebuild. The team acquired Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand from the Twins for Mahle, they acquired Chase Petty from the Twins for Sonny Gray and Jake Fraley and Brandon Williamson were the centerpiece of the trade that sent Suarez and Winker to Seattle. Three years later, let’s revisit the latest Reds rebuild.
The Arrival Of Elly De La Cruz And “The Core”
2023 was a wild ride for the Reds. They were projected to lose 100 games for a consecutive season, and the future of the franchise looked uncertain. Reds’ president Phil Castelini made some harsh comments towards the fanbase after the teardown of the roster in 2022, threatening a possible relocation if the team sold, saying “where are you gonna go?”.
McLain was the first piece of the puzzle. He debuted in May 2023 and put up Rookie of the Year-type numbers. Elly De La Cruz made his much-anticipated debut in June, when the team saw their biggest run of success in decades, going on a 12-game winning streak and leading the division at the time. It felt like any time the team started to show struggles, they promoted another prospect, and that helped keep the season alive. The team had six rookies with at least 1 fWAR: De La Cruz, McLain, Fernando Cruz, Spencer Steer, Andrew Abbott, and Brandon Williamson. Marte finished with 0.6 WAR in just 35 games. The Reds finished 2023 with an 82-80 record, missing the playoffs.
In 2024, the team regressed so much that they fired manager David Bell after he was signed to a three-year extension the season prior. McLain missed the entire season recovering from shoulder surgery, and the core of young players regressed in their sophomore seasons outside of De La Cruz, who hit 25 home runs and stole 67 bases to lead Major League Baseball. Marte missed the first 80 games of the season after he was suspended for performance-enhancing drugs, injuries to Hunter Green and Nick Lodolo were also major factors to why the team failed to improve off of their success the season prior.
For 2025, the team talked future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona out of retirement to manage the team. They were set to get McLain back and hoped he would build off his impressive rookie season. They traded Johnathan India to Kansas City for innings eater Brady Singer and the roster looked far better as a whole than it did in 2024. The team made the playoffs that season, sneaking in as the final Wild Card team in the final game of the season when the Marlins defeated the Mets.
De La Cruz has improved in every aspect of the game in every season. He’s improved his batting average each season; his power has remained consistent, and on defense, he’s currently having the best season of his career after leading the league in errors the last two years. McLain has yet to build on his 2023 success. He’s slashed .209/.296/.346 with 28 home runs, 35 doubles, and a 77 OPS+ over his last two seasons after hitting .290 with 16 home runs and a 127 OPS+ in 2023. Encarnacion-Strand was traded in 2026 to Baltimore for cash considerations. Benson was designated for assignment and went unclaimed on waivers. Greene and Lodolo have dealt with injuries again, with Greene undergoing a second Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss the entire 2027 season. Encarnacion-Strand is slashing .273/.308/.527 with 14 extra-base hits with Baltimore, leaving many wondering how it feels like none of the prospects coming through the system are developing once they reach the big leagues.
The future doesn’t look bright right now. The team has one of the worst-ranked farm systems in baseball, and outside of number-one prospect Alfredo Duno, there isn’t anyone in the system who looks like a potential star-caliber player anytime soon.
The Luis Castillo Trade Hasn’t Lived Up To Expectations
Miami Marlins At Cincinnati Reds July 27 0027 | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
The team traded Castillo at the trade deadline to the Seattle Mariners for pitchers Levi Stoudt, Andrew Moore, and infield prospects Edwin Arroyo and Noelvi Marte. Marte was the Mariners’ second-ranked prospect behind future star Julio Rodriguez. Stoudt made his debut with the Reds in 2023. He posted a 9.58 ERA across 10 1/3 innings with a .348 average against him. He was designated for assignment in 2024 and hasn’t pitched at the big-league level since and is currently in the Phillies organization. Moore never made it to the Reds’ big-league roster, reaching Double-A and was traded to San Diego for Connor Joe in 2025. He is currently in Triple-A with the Pirates organization. That leaves Marte and Arroyo.
Marte showed future star potential very early on in his career. He was promoted and made his Major League debut in August 2023 and was a key contributor offensively and played solid defense at third base. Unfortunately, things have spiraled out of control ever since. He was suspended for 80 games for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance in 2024. When he returned, it looked as if he had never played third base a day in his life and his offensive production fell off completely. In 2025, he showed flashes of offensive production, slashing .263/.300/.448 with 14 home runs and eventually transitioned to right field. Defensively, his biggest moment was when he robbed a home run in the ninth inning of a one-run game to keep the Reds’ playoff hopes alive. In 2026, he’s received inconsistent playing time and is currently in Triple-A. When he did get playing time at the big-league level in 2026, he chased at a 40 percent rate and struck out 52 times in 190 at-bats.
Offense was never a strong attribute for Arroyo throughout his minor league career. He missed the 2024 season with a shoulder injury that required surgery. In 2025, his offense was alright, hitting .284, but his power dipped. He made adjustments during the offseason, and in 2026, he put up career numbers. In his first Triple-A season, he is slashing .309/.377/.547 with 15 home runs, 13 doubles, and five triples. He was promoted and made his big-league debut after Elly De La Cruz was placed on the injured list with a hamstring injury at the end of May. While on the big-league roster, he was not productive. He’s recorded just four extra-base hits and struck out 31 times in 131 at-bats.
The book isn’t closed entirely on this trade. Marte is still only 24 years old, and Arroyo just turned 23 in August, but so far, it hasn’t turned out the way everyone hoped it would.
Free Agency Failures
Free Agency has not been Nick Krall’s strongest ability. Mike Moustakas’s contract limited any bibber contracts in 2022, leaving the team to sign players like Wil Myers, Luke Maile, Curt Casali, Chase Anderson and Kevin Newman. Myers played in just 37 games with the Reds before he was released.
“How we use our money at the end of the day, that’s going to depend on where we are from a budget standpoint,” Krall told Charlie Goldsmith of the Enquirer. “That’s going to be first and foremost, and over the next couple weeks, we’ll have that set. Then we can go forward.”
Over the next few seasons, I think it’s safe to say they did a very poor job with money in free agency. The team signed infielder Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45 million contract during the 2023 offseason. He was released just a year and a half into his contract. Krall spent $108 million in free agents that offseason. They signed pitchers Emilio Pagan, Nick Martinez, Frankie Montas and Brent Suter in addition to Candelario. Martinez eventually accepted a qualifying offer for $21 million the following offseason.
“We’re trying to eliminate peaks and valleys, that’s where we need to go,” Krall told Charlie Goldsmith during Spring Training in 2022. “We need to figure out how to continue to build through our player pipeline, player development and scouting. That’s got to be the base of everything we do. If that’s the base, that’s how we’ll build long-term success and sustainable success.”
During free agency in 2025, going into the 2026 season, the team was reported to be a “serious candidate” to sign slugger Kyle Schwarber. Ultimately, he re-signed with Philadelphia. The team opted to bring back Eugenio Suarez, who hit 49 home runs in 2025 and 30 the year prior. He has struggled with the Reds in his reunion season. He has hit just 19 home runs and was placed on waivers in August, going unclaimed.
Are There Reasons For Optimism?
One of the better trades during the original portion of the rebuild was when they traded Tyler Naquin to the Mets for prospects Hector Rodriguez and Jose Acuna. Rodriguez became the Reds’ third-ranked prospect and made his big-league debut in August. Acuna is currently in Triple-A and has shown flashes of being a quality pitcher, but struggles with command at times.
Pitching depth is a major concern in the farm system. Abbott was an All-Star in 2025, but he has shown regression and command issues in 2026. Outside of Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns, their 2023 and 2024 first-round picks, the team doesn’t have any prospects that will be big-league-ready within the next two seasons in their top-30.
One of the team’s best offensive players in 2023 was Will Benson. He had the best season of his career that season, hitting far above league average with a 128 OPS+ with 11 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and was young enough to have a long-term place with the team. He regressed over the next two seasons and was designated for assignment in 2026. He was not claimed and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Louisville. McLain has regressed offensively over the last two seasons. He finished fifth in Rookie of the Year voting in 2023.
The Reds have a window. They have a superstar talent in Elly De La Cruz, a front-runner Rookie of the Year candidate in Sal Stewart, and a potential ace in Chase Burns, who was extended to a six-year contract this season. The front office has failed this franchise over the last four seasons. Between poor contracts and subpar efforts at the trade deadline, I fear they have no choice but to tear the team down to the studs and rebuild for a second time in four years this offseason. The only true hope is that a new collective bargaining agreement can help level the playing field in terms of overall spending, but the front office has to make better decisions with the limited budget the current ownership can provide.
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