Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report, where we are beginning to feel a sense of creeping sadness over the impending conclusion of the World Cup on Sunday.

Anyway, here’s what’s on tap for the day: the cognitive dissonance of America First, the Iran war resumes with possible Houthi involvement, and two new Biden books.

The America First Contradiction

The Trump administration has spent almost two years bashing allies for not spending enough on defense and pressuring countries to take more responsibility for their own security as part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s America First philosophy. And, naturally, as allies become more self-reliant, it’s inevitable that the United States will have less influence over their politics.

But the Trump administration still wants it both ways: a world in which Washington continues calling the shots despite less commitment and involvement from the United States.

‘Common cause.’ The cognitive dissonance of this approach was on full display this week as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined why the administration is pushing for the dismantling of the International Criminal Court (ICC). “Using all the tools at our government’s disposal, working beside every ally with whom we can make common cause, we will dismantle the ICC—brick by brick, if necessary,” Rubio wrote in the Wall Street Journal on Monday. Separately, a U.S. official told CNN that nations that “refuse to reject the ICC’s false authority while relying on U.S. assistance are likely to come under increased scrutiny.”

In short, the Trump administration is seemingly planning to hold U.S. assistance over the heads of the 125 countries that are party to the ICC to pressure them into moving against the body.

The campaign against the ICC ties into Trump’s more general disdain for the rule of law and lack of respect for international law, but it also highlights how the administration hopes to continue using U.S. influence around the world to squeeze countries into complying with its goals. But it’s difficult to exploit such leverage when you also push for countries to be less dependent on the United States and alienate them by slashing security assistance programs or threatening to withdraw troops—on top of a constant stream of insults and erratic behavior.

‘A faulty understanding.’ A thread on X this week from Elbridge Colby, U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy and a strong proponent of America First, inadvertently highlighted this contradiction.

Colby warned against a “collective ‘middle powers’ strategy”—the idea, prominently espoused recently by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, that the world’s middle powers should band together to protect themselves from being bullied by the great powers. Colby said this approach “is based on a faulty understanding of international relations.” His posts seemed to reflect a sense of anxiety that countries are seeking out other partnerships and disengaging from the United States, which Trump critics have long warned would be an inevitable result of his America First philosophy.

Colby insisted that the administration was seeing an “upsurge” in engagement with Washington, but his posts struck a defensive tone as he emphasized the superiority of the “U.S. defense industrial base.”

“This is not to say allies and partners should give up spending more or investing in their own DIB [defense industrial base]. *To the contrary.* More spending will help us all, and especially our allies’ own security. And we welcome allies’ investment in their own DIBs, but in ways that are collaborative with America’s rather than trying in vain to replicate or supplant it,” Colby said.

His posts generated significant discussion (and ridicule) online, including from Wolfgang Ischinger, the chairman of the Munich Security Conference and a former German ambassador to the United States. “Bridge, if you feel that you need to point all this out publicly, this suggests that you are correctly beginning to understand that many of your allies have lost trust in US reliability. What would remain of the US as a superpower without the global web of Partners and Allies?” Ischinger wrote.

Bruno Maçães, Portugal’s former secretary of state for European affairs, mocked Colby, writing, “We are not concerned about this so I will write a 20 tweet thread about it.”

It seems the Trump administration is starting to realize that it’s difficult to wield U.S. influence like a hammer when you spend much of your time smashing the foundations of it.

Let’s Get Personnel

Darline Graham Nordone, the sister of late South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, was sworn in by the Senate on Tuesday to take up her brother’s seat—three days after his death at age 71.

The Senate on Wednesday also held confirmation hearings for two Trump nominees—Jay Clayton for director of national intelligence and Todd Blanche for attorney general—both of whom endured some tense exchanges with U.S. lawmakers. Blanche faced questions on the Epstein files and Blanche’s personal relationship with Trump from Republican Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana, while Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff sparred with Clayton over Clayton’s refusal to acknowledge that Trump lost the 2020 election.

Across the Atlantic, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government shake-up continued with the ouster of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who announced his departure in a post on X. Fedorov’s ouster came quick on the heels of the resignation of Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and reports of the impending ouster of Olga Stefanishyna as Ukraine’s ambassador to Washington. Fedorov’s immense popularity within Ukraine has made his removal particularly controversial, triggering mass protests across the country on Thursday.

On the Button

What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.

Dire straits. The U.S. military reinstated its blockade on Iran this week as the fighting between the two countries over the Strait of Hormuz erupted once again.

Meanwhile, a related conflict threatens to engulf a second strait. As our colleague Keith Johnson outlined in his latest piece, the four-year cease-fire between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthi militant group in Yemen fractured this week. Experts fear that if the situation escalates, the Houthis could close down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key shipping lane in the Red Sea, as they did following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war that began in 2023. Should they do so, it would severely disrupt oil prices and global trade—even more than the Iran war already has.

Cementing Ukraine’s gains. Zelensky has had a fruitful couple of weeks of diplomacy. He secured a pledge from Trump to give Ukraine a license to build Patriot missile defense systems at last week’s NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. And this week, he secured European support to develop a similar (but cheaper) Ukrainian system during his attendance at the “coalition of the willing” meeting in Paris. Rishi has more on those announcements in his latest piece.

Zelensky’s dealmaking flurry comes as the Ukrainian military continues to pound Russia with repeated drone strikes, pinning down Russian troops at several points along the 700-plus-mile front line and disrupting logistics networks. But expanding on those successes to take back territory is another matter, as our colleague Sam Skove reports.

Snapshot

Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike at the Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza, on July 16.Eyad Baba/AFP via Getty Images

Biden Book Club

Two big upcoming book publications were announced this week from members of the Biden administration—including one from the former president himself.

Biden announced his new book, titled Promise Me, America, in an X post on Wednesday. The book will be released on Nov. 17, two weeks after the U.S. midterm election.

Also coming out with a book is Brett McGurk, who served as Biden’s top Middle East advisor during the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel and the war that followed. The book, which is about one aspect of that attack and its aftermath, is titled Brink: Inside the Race to Free the October 7th Hostages. It will be released on Oct. 6.

Put on Your Radar

Monday, July 20: Andy Burnham is expected to take office as U.K. prime minister.

Tuesday, July 21: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations foreign ministers’ meeting begins, hosted by the Philippines in Manila.

Trump hosts Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at the White House.

Wednesday, July 22: Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is scheduled to be charged in New York.

Friday, July 24: The United Nations Security Council is set to begin the selection process for the next U.N. secretary-general.

Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner, rescheduled after an alleged assassination attempt on him interrupted the first dinner on April 25.

By the Numbers

46—the median percentage of people from 20  countries who view China favorably, according to a new survey by Pew Research out this week. Only 36 percent have favorable views of the United States.

Quote of the Week

“Fuck off.”

—A sailor in the Strait of Hormuz responding to the U.S. military’s radio message touting freedom of navigation in the waterway, according to a recording heard by the Wall Street Journal.

FP’s Most Read This Week

• Ukraine Finally Has a Theory of Victory. Will It Work? by Christian Caryl
• Marco Rubio Burned Down the House to Fix a Sink by Amanda Klasing
• Why We Know More About China’s Next-Generation Fighters Than America’s by Sam Roggeveen and David Vallance

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s reshaping of the Pentagon has now reached the glandular level. Hegseth announced on Wednesday that the department will begin mandatorily testing the testosterone levels of service members aged 30 and over, while younger service members can opt into the tests.

In a video on X titled “The High-T Department of War,” Hegseth explained to service members that the test is about “restoring and optimizing your natural capabilities,” though he said that any recommended testosterone replacement therapy would be “entirely your choice.” Several doctors and researchers are questioning the move, saying that testosterone levels change naturally over time and that periodic testosterone screenings without symptoms are not medically required.