This is not a position the Detroit Tigers want to be in.
Entering Saturday, they have lost a season-high seven straight games following a 7-4 road loss to the Baltimore Orioles on Friday. The Tigers’ 20-32 record is the second-worst in the American League, 10½ games behind the first-place Guardians in the AL Central standings and five games out in the wild-card race.
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And it may not get better any time soon. Most of the starting pitching staff is on the injured list, including ace Tarik Skubal, who is recovering from a surgical procedure to remove a bone chip in his left elbow. That has taken the back-to-back Cy Young Award winner off the mound, unable to bolster the Tigers’ rotation and unable to be offered as a valuable trade target while in his final guaranteed year with the Tigers.
At least, that seemed to be the case a couple of weeks ago.
The typical recovery time for an elbow surgery like Skubal’s would take at least two months, and since Skubal had his surgery in early May, many experts thought Skubal wouldn’t be available to pitch until late June at the earliest.
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However, Skubal underwent a new procedure aimed to reduce recovery time. That allowed him to throw a “really positive” bullpen session at Comerica Park just 15 days after his surgery, meaning it’s possible he will be ready to pitch much earlier than originally thought.
That could give the Tigers a boost in an AL pennant chase with so many floundering teams still within striking distance of a one of three wild-card spots.
Or, if the Tigers keep sinking before Skubal returns, it could make a blockbuster deadline deal a lot more likely.
The New York Post’s Jon Heyman believes the chances of the Tigers trading Skubal “are rising” by losing now 15 of 17, while the odds of the team signing the lefty to a long-term deal are “nil.”
Neither Skubal nor the Tigers have addressed the recent trade chatter, especially since the Tigers signed top free-agent lefty Framber Valdez to a three-year deal in the offseason to pair with Skubal at the top of the rotation. But with the team spiraling, more analysts are considering what a Skubal trade would look like for the Tigers.
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ESPN’s Buster Olney called Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris a “realist” in his latest article Friday examining MLB’s potential deadline deals.
“The table read on Harris is that he’s not going to go all-in in a long-shot effort to make the postseason if he thinks he doesn’t have a good enough [team]. But Skubal could have enormous value at the deadline,” Olney wrote.
A big package for Skubal could be complicated by two things according to Olney – how Skubal pitches upon his return and a team’s willingness to take on Skubal’s big salary, as the lefty will be owed around $11 million for the final two months of the seasons. But with Skubal’s all-world pitching abilities, that may come as a bargain for a team looking for a trophy
Per Fansided’s Robert Murray, who spoke with three MLB executives about a potential Skubal deal, there still would be heavy interest from contenders for Skubal’s services. One executive pointed towards the San Diego Padres, who are a half-game behind the first-place Dodgers in the National League West standings and whose president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is notorious for making big trades.
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Another executive pointed to the resurgent Philadelphia Phillies and their president Dave Dombrowski, who is also no stranger to win-now moves (as Tigers fans can certainly remember during Dombrowski’s 14-year stint in Detroit). A third pointed to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have the second-best farm system in baseball per MLB Pipeline, a win-now mentality and a perpetual need for starting pitching with oft-injured starters Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone.
Per that third executive, the Tigers may be able to get two top-100 prospects in return for two months of Skubal, as long as Skubal demonstrates he is healthy enough to pitch at his Cy Young level.
That doesn’t mean the Tigers are plotting a trade just yet, especially with over two months to go before the Aug. 3 trade deadline. But if the Tigers keep slipping further from a playoff spot, and if Skubal can return to his pre-surgery form within the next month, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him pitching for another team before August.
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You can reach Christian at cromo@freepress.com.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: What MLB experts say about Tigers’ potential Tarik Skubal trade
