With the MLB season officially in the books, the focus now shifts to the offseason. Tarik Skubal is the biggest free agent and his next-team market on Kalshi has reopened. The New York Mets have taken over the top spot from the Dodgers, with a 40% chance of landing him.
Within the last week, the Los Angeles Dodgers were favored to retain Skubal with a 44.5% chance, while the Mets had 25%. The Dodgers came down to 27% while the Mets stayed put. On Halloween, the Mets made the jump and jumped the Dodgers, with their price growing stronger since.
Kalshi settles based on which team Skubal is with by March 25, 2027. A $10 trade that he signs with the Mets profits $13.78.
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The expectation, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, is that Skubal will make his free-agent decision before the MLB lockout begins on December 1. Passan lists the Dodgers and Mets as the, “two most obvious suitors.”
“Skubal is far and away the best player in this class, and the expectation is he will sign before the Dec. 1 lockout. The two most obvious suitors are the two teams with the highest payrolls in baseball: The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets.”
ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez took a different approach, saying that he believes Skubal would welcome a return to the Dodgers, but that the Mets’ offer could be enough to sway him away.
“My sense is Skubal would love to return to the Dodgers. He truly seemed to relish his 2½ months in Los Angeles. He loved the culture, particularly being among so many established, veteran players who were singularly focused on winning,” Gonzalez wrote. “But it’s going to come down to price. And whether the Dodgers would be willing to match Steve Cohen’s Mets.”
Skubal’s time with the Dodgers was a success despite the Brewers sweeping them 4-0 in the NLCS. In 10 regular season games that Skubal played for the Dodgers this season, they went 8-2. Skubal went 5-2 as the starter in that stretch.
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