As the momentum is growing ahead of Switzerland’s vote to cap immigration, many parallels are being drawn with the divisive 2016 Brexit referendum in the UK. An expert explains whether the comparison is valid.
As Switzerland prepares to vote on a divisive initiative that is aimed at cutting immigration and potentially breaking agreements with the EU, many are drawing comparisons with the UK’s referendum on whether to split from the EU in June 2016.
For example, a recent report by SRF public broadcaster, noted that the the pro-Brexit slogan used in the referendum campaign “Take back control”, is “strongly reminiscent“ of the Swiss People’s Party (SVP) campaign to convince voters to back their plan to cap the population by getting immigration “under control”.
In the Brexit vote, as in the Swiss “No to 10 million” initiative, concerns over immigration were the main driver behind those who supported the campaign.
If the Swiss back the initiative on June 14th, it could lead to the country pulling out of the free movement agreement it has with the EU, which is also what resulted from the UK’s divorce from Brussels.
So while the comparisons are natural, are the two votes really the same?
Cenni Najy, head of politics at the economic organisation Centre Patronal has said he sees “striking parallels”.
“The situation is comparable but not the same as in the UK,” Najy, who is against the initiative, tells The Local.
The main and obvious reason the two votes are not the same is that the United Kingdom was a fully-fledged member of the European Union. Switzerland has never been – instead, it has had access to the EU internal market through wide-ranging bilateral agreements.
Najy warns however that there are lessons from Brexit that Swiss voters should be aware of.
If the initiative passes and Switzerland’s population hits 9.5 million in a few years time, any Swiss government would be forced to renegotiate the free movement agreement.
Even if Switzerland is forced to pull out of its free movement deal with the EU in order to keep its population down – as the initiative demands – it doesn’t necessarily mean immigration will be controlled.
Like after Brexit, immigration won’t end
Like the UK, Switzerland will probably have to hire more third-country nationals to fill the jobs in sectors suffering from personnel shortages, the analyst says.
“In the five years after Brexit far fewer EU nationals have come to the UK, but the number of people from outside the EU has skyrocketed – in other words, a highly-skilled workforce from neighbouring countries was replaced by heterogeneous groups from further away,” Najy says.
“If an island like the UK failed to ‘take back control’ on immigration, then Switzerland, which has borders with four EU countries, won’t be able to either,” Najy says.
He believes Switzerland will end up turning to cross-border workers to fill the gaps in the labour force.
If the vote passes, “we would be moving away from one migration system only to create another, one that is more chaotic, less European and less regulated than the one we have today,” Najy told Swiss Info.
Because of Brexit the number of asylum seekers increased in the UK partly because the country is no longer part of the EU’s Dublin agreement – a law that determines which European country is responsible for examining an asylum application.
Najy warns a similar situation could occur in Switzerland.
“If the initiative is applied, Bern might lose its access to a large community of countries that manages extra-EU immigration through cooperation and automatic exchange of information,” he adds.
In any event, Switzerland pulling out of the EU agreements would likely trigger a political crisis with the EU, Najy added. A similar crisis occurred after Brexit during the years of tense and tortuous negotiations.
Similar warnings over security fears
Karin Kayser-Frutschi, president of the Conference of Cantonal Police Directors, recently sounded a warning to voters, not about immigration, but relating to crime.
Concretely, if the ‘No to million’ initiative was approved she warned Switzerland’s security would be “seriously compromised”, because any subsequent break in ties with the EU could “limit or even end the country’s access to the EU’s police database.”
Similar warnings were made to the UK about its own security being weakened by Brexit.
READ MORE: Switzerland’s security to be ‘seriously compromised’ if anti-immigration vote wins
Fears over Swiss economy justified after impact of Brexit
In the run up to the Brexit referendum, those campaigning to stay in the EU, raised fears of the economic impact of leaving the EU along with its single market and customs union.
Similar fears are being raised by the Swiss government and business leaders about the negative impact on the country’s economy if Switzerland is forced to break it’s agreements with the EU in its attempt to cap it’s population.
The UK’s GDP is said to have declined by 6 to 8 percent due to Brexit – with wages falling by the same amount, proving that it wasn’t just scaremongering on the part of those campaigning to remain.
Could there be a similar hit to the Swiss economy in the future if the “Not to 10 million” vote passes and ties with the EU are broken?
There is no clear answer to that at the moment, Najy says, but due to different trade ties with the EU, consequences for Switzerland “might not be as harsh”.
Swiss People’s Party reject the Brexit comparison
Nicolas Kolly, a lawmaker from the People’s Party, told Swiss Info the comparisons between his party’s proposal and Brexit are wrong.
“Our initiative is not a Swiss Brexit,” he said.
Kolly argued that the proposal could be implemented without ending the free movement of persons, by focusing first on asylum, family reunification and safeguard clauses.
He said Switzerland would still be able to recruit the skilled workers it needs. “Even with the initiative, around 40,000 people a year could still immigrate,” he said and blamed the UK for not coming up with a “coherant” immigration plan after Brexit.
‘The Brexit benefits will not occur’
To many readers of The Local however, the comparison with Brexit will eventually be proved valid if the initiative passes.
Jacqueline Sims, who lives in Prangins said: “As happened with Brexit, the expected benefits will not occur and many sectors will be severely compromised. Quality of life will in fact deteriorate rather than increase.”
Asked about the outcome Andy from the UK who lives in Zurich said: “I think a slightly milder form of Brexit will be the result and we can all see how that worked out…”
Christopher Henderson-Fairey, warned: “The government needs to show the average Swiss family that they too benefit (from immigration). Otherwise we will have a Swiss Brexit moment.”
And one unnamed reader noted the similar feeling of insecurity around the two votes.
“I moved here precisely because of Brexit. To have to experience the upheaval again is very disappointing,” they said.
