It appears abundantly clear at this point that the NFL’s goals of securing new broadcast agreements with each of its five primary partners before the 2026 season kicks off was a pie-in-the-sky fantasy.
As it stands, the NFL has so far only engaged CBS in any formal talks, mostly due to a change-in-control provision triggered by Skydance’s purchase of Paramount last summer, which allowed the league to compel CBS to the negotiating table. As for the other partners — Fox, NBC, ESPN, and Prime Video — no such talks have occurred.
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And there’s a growing belief, at least among some observers, that there simply are not any new deals to be had prior the the NFL’s opt-out options following the 2029-30 season (or 2030-31 for ESPN).
Andrew Marchand, a sports media reporter for The Athletic, recently expressed his skepticism on the NFL’s early rights renewals during an episode of his Marchand Sports Media podcast with Puck’s John Ourand. Marchand offered compelling reasons why many of the NFL’s current partners are better served by waiting until their opt-out clauses hit at the end of the decade, rather than striking renewals now.
Marchand begins with Prime Video. The Amazon-owned streamer pays about $1 billion per year for its Thursday Night Football package, well below the rate paid by every other NFL broadcast partner. (For reference, NBC’s Sunday Night Football package is the next-most-inexpensive package at around $2 billion per year.) In terms of value, Prime Video might top the list compared to every other NFL broadcaster. Combine that with the fact that it might be the one partner that doesn’t need the NFL as much as the NFL needs it, and there’s little reason for Prime Video to opt for an early renewal.
“I just think if I’m Amazon, I think they’re probably just gonna sit it out and say, ‘We’ll see you in ’29,’” Marchand said. “They have trillions of dollars, they just had a great earnings call, like, why are they in a rush? They have a deal. A deal’s a deal. Why are they in a rush to give the NFL more money? They don’t need to. And if they have to pony up in ’29-30, they can do that. …So if I’m Amazon, I don’t think I’m bidding. I don’t think I’m in a rush to give more money. And I think I’m in a position where I don’t have to.”
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Ourand agreed. “Amazon is different than the TV networks because Amazon doesn’t need their NFL package as much as the TV networks do,” he said.
As for ESPN, Marchand argues that, because the network is already paying the most money for its package (a cool $2.7 billion per year), the network can rightfully demand more out of the NFL.
“If I’m ESPN, I’m paying $2.7 billion, paying the most of anybody, I’m going to Roger Goodell, I’m going to [NFL media exec] Hans Schroeder, and I’m saying, ‘I want the best package. I should have the best games,’” Marchand said.
Considering ESPN is already paying the most, its opt-out doesn’t hit until a year after every other broadcaster, and the NFL now owns a 10% equity stake in the network, there’s reason to believe ESPN can hold out until 2030-31 for its new deal.
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Finally, Marchand goes to Fox. The network’s CEO Lachlan Murdoch has recently backpedaled on his prior excitement about renewing its NFL deal early, saying publicly he believes Fox is already paying market price for the league. Moreover, Fox and the Murdoch media empire have been one of the primary voices pushing the narrative that taking NFL games off of broadcast television may jeopardize the NFL’s antitrust exemption. Not coincidentally, the Justice Department recently opened an investigation into that very matter.
Then there’s the fact that Fox is a much smaller company than the other four NFL broadcast partners, and thus less equipped to stomach a massive increase in rights fees, and the network might be more willing to hold out until 2029-30.
“Fox is sitting there and they do not want to spend that money,” Marchand said. “You look at their market cap, it doesn’t really make sense for them to spend too much more money.”
“The sense that I’m getting is that Fox is willing to say, ‘We have you under contract through the out after the ’29-30 season, who knows what’s going to happen with media over the next four years, we’re willing to roll the dice. And we think when it comes time to renegotiate in ’29-30, are we going to merge with somebody? Is somebody going to buy us? Or are you really going to be willing to test the antitrust exemptions that are coming from Congress and take our package and possibly give it to a streamer or allow streamers to get more?’” Ourand added. “And I think that’s a bet that Fox seems more willing to make right now.”
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Of course, this is all a very fluid situation, and if the NFL lowers its target price enough for networks to be interested in the early renewals, thus eliminating the end-of-decade opt-outs and allowing the current contracts to run to term in the 2033-34 season, that can change the calculus for the networks.
But for now, it appears the NFL is hitting pause and the networks are content to play the hand they were dealt.
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