(Editor’s note: The following is a guest post by Ryan Woodall, assistant coach at Edmonds-Woodway High School in Edmonds, Washington)
Football and life are games of living and learning, then improving. It’s hard to learn when you’re dominating. You need a couple punches in the mouth to truly ascend. Think of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game last year. The Seattle Seahawks allowed 38 points, but after that, the Rams were truly the only team to score 20+ on Seattle. The Cardinals reached 20+ when down 41-15 in the 4th quarter, while the Titans scored a last-second TD to get over 20. This year the Commanders got Seattle early, but the 49ers and Chargers didn’t truly feel like their offense dominated.
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After watching the film, here are the storylines from Monday’s loss to the Chicago Bears:
*Success = Positive EPA
*All stats are from Sumer Sports
The Bears stayed committed to running the ball on 1st down. They did so 15 times with only 3 being successful (20%), averaging 1.6 yards on those carries. Overall the Seahawks had the Bears in 2nd & 8+ 12 times Monday. Across the NFL from ’22-’26 (regular season), series that have a 2nd & 8+ gain a first down 49% of the time. The Bears gained a 1st down 7/12 for a 58% conversion rate.
Piggybacking off the 2nd & 8+ numbers, the Bears’ chances of reaching a 1st down go down significantly with another stop on 2nd down. Across the NFL from ’22-’26 (regular season), series with a 3rd & 8+ have a 26% conversion rate, while 3rd & 5+ has a 33% conversion rate.
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3rd & 8+ = 1/5 = 20%
3rd & 5+ = 2/7 = 29%
3rd/4th & <5 = 6/8 = 75%
On 2nd down you don’t need it all; you just need to get half back. The Bears had quick route concepts to get what they needed without risking sacks. The quick throws beat some tight coverage. They had runs with combo blocks to move a DL and get up to a backer. Again not playing to get it all, just get to a manageable 3rd. The Seahawks also gave them a few with missed tackles, plus allowed Caleb Williams to escape when the Bears tried to throw deeper.
The Bears know the challenge that comes with facing Seattle. 49% of the time the Seahawks only have 6 defenders in the box. Their light boxes allow the 10th most yards (4.1) while seeing the 6th most rush attempts (52).
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The Bears’ plan for the light box was to Combo (2 blockers are responsible for 1 DL & 1 LB together) where they could. But you can’t combo everyone, especially with only 5 OL, which prompted the Bears to bring in TEs or WRs to help combo with OL or seal off the edge rushers. The combos generally worked, but there’s still OL 1v1 blocking, which is where Seattle was able to fight off and help minimize the gains. LBs also did well hitting the OL first, to control the block and ricochet off to make tackles.
November just started, but Caleb Williams wasn’t waiting for Thanksgiving to feast. Williams had 17 throws between the numbers and hashes (known as the “seam”) for 170 yards, accounting for 69% of his yards with 11 successful. Williams had 7 throws 10+ yards downfield, tallying 99 yards (40% of total) with 5 being successful. On all Dig routes (deep in), Williams was 5/6 for 110 yards (45% of total). In weeks 1-7, the Seahawks allowed 72 yards/game between numbers and hash, with an average target depth (ADOT) of 3.9. This suggests check downs and quick throws were accumulating over the game. Williams finished with 7.6 ADOT.
