The Cincinnati Reds aren’t one of the biggest spenders in the league. They hardly ever spend any money of note. But when they do, it always seems to go to the wrong places.
This can be seen with free agent signings like Jeimer Candelario, Mike Moustakas, and Shogo Akiyama over the last decade or two. This offseason, they spent a bit more money than fans are used to. Some of the deals, like Eugenio Suárez’s signing, had the city buzzing with excitement. But some of the moves, like Emilio Pagán’s $20 million deal, might not benefit the Reds in the long run.
Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller recently suggested the Reds wish they could have a do-over with their decision to sign Pagán to a two-year deal during the offseason. This idea might have hit the nail right on the head.
“Kind of hard to argue with the decision here. Emilio Pagán had a 2.88 ERA and a career-high 32 saves last season for the Reds, including ending the year on a 10-inning scoreless streak as Cincinnati eked out that last NL wild card spot on a tiebreaker,” Miller wrote. “Getting to bring that guy back for $10M with a $10M player option for a second season was kind of a no-brainer, especially while relievers like Brad Keller and Seranthony Domínguez were signing for similar amounts elsewhere.
“It hasn’t worked out for the Reds, though. Prior to landing on the IL in early May with a grade two hamstring strain, Pagán had a 6.43 ERA and had blown three of his nine save chances. (Though, by virtue of their early voodoo magic in close contests, the Reds still won two of those three games in extra innings.) And without him, things have gotten even worse for a bullpen that had a ghastly 7.48 ERA in Pagán’s first two weeks on the shelf.”
Giving this kind of money for Pagán’s production last season would make sense, but it was hard to imagine he would be able to sustain that kind of success in Great American Ball Park.
Pagán gives up a lot of hard-hit flyballs. At GABP, these hard-hit fly balls result in a lot of home runs. In close games, as a closer would pitch, this is disastrous.
On the year, Pagán was six for nine on save opportunities with an ERA over 6.00 before suffering a hamstring injury that has placed him on the sideline for most of the season.
The Reds have Pagán as one of the highest-paid players on their roster this season and next season. It’s hard to imagine he’s going to return to the player he was last year during that span of time.
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