The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are about to begin training camp on July 28, and that date also serves as an important one for their quarterback, Baker Mayfield.
Mayfield is currently playing on the last year of his $33 million APY deal, and he’s given the Bucs a deadline of the start of training camp to make that happen. His tenure with Tampa Bay has largely been quite successful, so naturally, both sides want to get that deal done, but both also have to sort through the finer parts of negotiation.
Mayfield is set to get back to his old self in 2026 after a brutal end to his 2025. He’s the starter in the QB room, but he’s set to have a new backup in Jake Browning and was joined this offseason by a UDFA prospect who could stick around for a little bit longer after training camp.
There’s plenty to talk about when it comes to Mayfield and the Bucs’ quarterback room, so let’s dig right in. Here are predictions, thoughts and concerns for Tampa Bay when it comes to the most important position in football.
Prediction
Mayfield will be signed to a huge extension before training camp starts.
Mayfield gave the Bucs a training camp deadline before he claimed he’d stop talking contract stuff and focus on ball. The Bucs could wait out that deadline and see if they could sign him for cheaper after the season, but both sides have been adamant about how much they want to get this deal done — so why wait?
If the Bucs are committing to Mayfield in 2027 and beyond, no matter how he plays in 2026, they might as well extend him early to maximize his value. That value will likely be over $50 million dollars APY, which will put him around Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy.
Mayfield has been adamant that, even if he doesn’t get his extension, he’ll be locked in for this season. But the Bucs don’t want it to come to that, and neither does he, so we expect those talks for a big extension to continue in the weeks leading up to training camp — and then it will get done right before the proceedings kick off.
Thoughts
It sure seems like UDFA Jalon Daniels, whom the Bucs picked up after bringing him in for a top 30 visit during the NFL Draft process, will be Tampa Bay’s QB3 in 2026.
Daniels is competing with fellow QB Connor Bazelak, whom the Bucs signed to the practice squad last year after he performed admirably in lieu of an injured Michael Pratt. The Bucs like Bazelak — they even considered playing him in a regular-season game last year, per Bazelak himself — but they really like Daniels’ traits and the attitude he brings to the film room and the football field.
Daniels has been leading in reps when it comes to the two in OTAs and mandatory minicamp, so there’s no reason to believe that won’t be the case in training camp, too. Daniels has a higher athletic ceiling than Bazelak and could also be more useful as a scout team quarterback on the practice team, as he could play the part of a dual threat more easily.
Bazelak’s intelligence has clearly impressed Tampa Bay, but he’ll have to compete with Daniels for reps both in training camp and during the preseason. And if the split on those reps keeps going like it has, Bazelak may find himself in trouble when the Bucs cut down their roster at the end of training camp.
Concerns
Most fans and pundits attribute Mayfield’s drastic fall-off in the back half of last year to injuries, both of his own and to the cast surrounding him on offense. But what if it was more than that?
It was a dire second half of the season for Mayfield. He started out as an MVP candidate for Tampa Bay through the first eight weeks, but his play over the last nine weeks dropped severely — he went from 0.055 EPA/play to -0.091, a deep-ball completion percentage of 25.7% to 20.8% and a depth of target of 8.6 yards to 7.6 yards in those time spans, per SumerSports.
Injuries certainly had a lot to do with all that, but Mayfield has had his struggles. He leads the NFL in fumbles since joining the Buccaneers (32, four more than the next-highest quarterback) and is fourth in sacks taken in that same time span (116 sacks). In fact, Mayfield’s time to throw in seconds is steadily increasing every year he’s been a Buccaneer, which could be a concerning trend to note (2.53 in 2023, 2.60 in 2024, 2.71 in 2025).
Mayfield is also second in interceptions among the rest of the league in 2023 with 37, short of Geno Smith’s 41. Adding his eight lost fumbles into the equation gives him 45 turnovers and a total turnover rate of 2.68%, which is 19th of 22 quarterbacks with more than 1,000 passing attempts since 2023.
Mayfield has some problems that have been holding him back from being a truly great quarterback in the NFL. But offensive coordinator Liam Coen was able to mitigate a lot of those problems by getting excellent production out of him, and Coen is very good friends with Zac Robinson, who will be Mayfield’s coordinator next year.
With Robinson at the helm and a healthy supporting cast, it’s more likely than not that Mayfield gets back on track. But there’s plenty to be concerned about, and the Bucs will hope the issues Mayfield often faces don’t crop up again at the worst times.
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