The Blighty Pub is so remote that its owners have painted its title on the roof in giant letters, to make sure people flying over can’t miss it. There’s no town centre in Blighty, which is mainly irrigation canals and farmland. There’s just the pub on the highway that runs along the region’s main canal, and a school a few blocks behind it, to service the area’s 190 residents.
That school’s polling booth recorded the highest result for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party in Saturday’s byelection for the south-west NSW seat of Farrer. Of 113 votes cast at Blighty Public School, 101 of them eventually flowed to One Nation’s David Farley – about 90 per cent of the vote.
An analysis of polling booth data shows Farley’s victory was built in places such as Blighty – the small farming communities, towns and villages spotted across the Murray River Valley and the southern NSW Riverina.
These voters helped One Nation pull ahead against community independent Michelle Milthorpe, the second-placed candidate, who recorded her strongest results in Albury, the seat’s largest city.
In a blow to Liberal leader Angus Taylor and Nationals leader Matt Canavan, neither of the Coalition parties – which have held this seat for its entire 77-year history – were even in the race. It was the first time in more than half a century that an election’s top two candidates weren’t from a major party.
There are three lessons that can be taken from these results.
Lesson one: Coalition can be thrown out of its strongholds
The most obvious takeaway from Saturday’s result was voters’ rejection of the Coalition.
Just over two in 10 people in Farrer wanted to elect either of the Coalition parties – the Liberals were on 12 per cent of the primary vote, and the Nationals nudged 10 per cent, on Sunday. Almost eight in 10 voters rejected them, in a clear signal a frustrated electorate wanted to send a message.
Every booth that recorded the strongest result for former Liberal leader Sussan Ley just a year ago swung emphatically against the Liberals 12 months later.
In 2025, Ley’s best result was in Euston, a town of roughly 500 people on the Murray River best known for its grape growing, where she won 66 per cent of the primary vote. On Saturday, Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski received 11 per cent – a collapse of 55 points. The Nationals were on 14 per cent.
In other words, the Coalition received just a quarter of first preferences in a booth it won outright last year. Meanwhile, One Nation’s primary vote in Euston multiplied seven-fold, from 7 per cent to 49 per cent.
These swings were mirrored in all booths that most emphatically elected Ley last year.
In Murray Downs, a cluster of homes and a riverside golf resort, Ley recorded her second-highest result with 63 per cent of the primary vote; Butkowski was trimmed to single digits on Saturday, at 8 per cent. Farley won on first preferences, increasing One Nation’s vote share from 9 per cent to 52 per cent of primary votes.
In Coleambally, an irrigation village where the population has collapsed by almost a fifth since the turn of the century, the Liberal vote went through an even more catastrophic decline. The party’s primary support fell from 62 per cent to 7 per cent, while One Nation’s surged from 5 per cent to 57 per cent.
Lesson two: Urban versus rural divides persist
On the larger Australian electoral map, this now manifests as capital cities painted in Labor-red while regional electorates are the last mainstays of Liberals and Nationals.
The Coalition has been wiped from one of those seats with its defeat in Farrer, but the difference in voting patterns between urban and rural corners of the electorate remain.
At Saturday’s byelection, this manifested as One Nation dominating rural booths, such as Blighty, while the Climate 200-backed Milthorpe won the seat’s most urban polling stations.
This pattern was clearest in Albury, the city of 60,000 that has more in common with Sydney and Melbourne than the rural towns on its periphery. At last year’s election, Milthorpe won every booth in Albury against Ley, in a Liberal-versus-independent dynamic that resembled the showdowns between Liberals and teal independents in capital cities.
Her strongest results on Saturday were again in Farrer’s biggest city. This masthead’s analysis of about 32,000 votes across Albury’s 14 booths shows Milthorpe won 41 per cent of the primary vote. One Nation came in second, with 34 per cent. The Liberals won 16 per cent in their former stronghold and the Nationals won 8 per cent.
On a two-candidate preferred count, Milthorpe beat Farley in Albury, 52.3 per cent to 47.7 per cent. This suggests that Liberal and Nationals votes flowed to both candidates, despite the parties preferencing One Nation.
The only two booths that Milthorpe won outside of Albury were in Farrer’s second-biggest population centre. The independent won Griffith North (52.7 to 47.3) and Griffith West (51 to 49), and came closest to One Nation, with more than 45 per cent of the two-candidate vote, in Griffith’s other booths, as well as polling centres in the towns of Narrandera and Leeton.
But everywhere else, One Nation pulled in front.
Lesson three: One Nation is making inroads everywhere
Hanson’s One Nation made inroads even in the city of Albury. This is the third lesson from Saturday’s byelection, which contains a warning for Labor in the cities.
Albury is similar to the nation’s capitals, where higher-income residents with tertiary education live closer to the city centre than those getting by with less money.
On Albury’s northern outskirts, about 10 per cent of Springdale Heights’ residents have a bachelor’s degree, while its median household income is around $1200 a week. The Springdale Heights booth was won easily last year by Milthorpe 57.7-42.3. This year, she barely held it against Farley 50.8-49.2.
As you move closer to Albury’s city centre, incomes climb, education qualifications increase and support for Milthorpe lifts.
In central Albury and neighbouring East Albury, Milthorpe achieved a two-candidate-preferred victory over Farley of more than 60-40. In both areas, weekly incomes are about $300 higher than in Springdale Heights. About a third of central Albury residents also have a bachelor’s degree, well above the average for all of NSW.
These results hint at the suburban divide that One Nation could exploit in Australia’s capitals.
Outer-suburban seats that resemble the demographics of these parts of Albury, such as the Labor-held seats of Hawke, Bruce and Holt in Melbourne, or Werriwa and Macarthur in Sydney, could be in the sights of One Nation at the next election.
Not that it would be just Labor in trouble. Coalition seats such as Lindsay in Sydney and Longman to the north of Brisbane could also be threatened.
Go deeper on One Nation’s huge win
- Rob Harris in Farrer: It took Pauline Hanson 30 years, and she’s only just getting started
- James Massola’s analysis: This is no ordinary victory — it’s a political earthquake
- History made: This seat has been held by the Coalition for all of its 77 years. Not anymore
- Full results: Every polling booth, every candidate across Farrer
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