While Tua Tagovailoa may hold the early advantage in the Atlanta Falcons quarterback competition based on his overall health, we wouldn’t sleep on Michael Penix Jr.
If Penix can win the starting job, he will look to build off his promising yet inconsistent sophomore campaign. The former top-10 pick had some great moments in 2025, and an impressive 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio (nine touchdowns to three interceptions).
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According to Pro Football Focus, Penix could be in line for an uptick in interceptions this season. PFF’s Mark Chichester listed Penix as one of eight quarterbacks likely to regress in interception rate in 2026.
“Penix threw zero interceptions on non-turnover-worthy plays across 276 pass attempts in his first full season as a starter,” wrote Chichester. “League-average rates would project slightly over two for that volume. Combined with a below-average 33.3% conversion rate on his nine turnover-worthy throws, the result was a three-interception season that runs roughly three and a half picks below expectation.”
While Penix may have gotten a few lucky breaks, PFF went on to highlight the former Washington standout’s low rate of turnover-worthy throws last season.
“The low raw totals make this one of the harder cases to evaluate,” added Chichester. “Nine turnover-worthy throws on 276 attempts is actually a genuinely low rate, suggesting real care with ball placement in high-risk situations. But the conversion variance on those plays, and particularly the zero-for-246 on non-turnover-worthy attempts, will almost certainly revert.”
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Quarterbacks who regularly push the ball down the field tend to throw a higher rate of interceptions, making ball placement that much more important. The fact that Penix had just nine turnover-worthy throws is a testament to his underrated accuracy.
At the same time, he still needs to improve his completion percentage (60.1 last season), which often comes down to decision making on those early downs. Perhaps head coach Kevin Stefanski can put Penix in a better position to have success.
Over his first two NFL seasons, Penix has passed for 2,761 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions for a passer rating of 85.8 in 14 games (12 starts). In 2025, he had a career high 88.5 passer rating before tearing his ACL.
Penix will look to keep the pressure on Tagovailoa as the team heads into its third week of OTAs. The Falcons will be back in action on Monday.
This article originally appeared on Falcons Wire: Atlanta Falcons: PFF says Penix will throw more INTs in 2026
