Since Peyton Manning was drafted No. 1 overall in the 1998 NFL Draft, 21 quarterbacks have been taken with the top pick. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is widely projected to join that group when the Las Vegas Raiders kick off the 2026 NFL Draft on April 23.
What will it take for Mendoza to be a successful No. 1 NFL draft pick?
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USA TODAY analyzed the career approximate value (AV) of those 21 quarterbacks, plus Manning, using data from Pro Football Reference. Approximate value is a rough gauge of a player’s performance over a given time span, making it a reasonable way to estimate the success of recent quarterbacks picked No. 1 in the draft.
Out of the 22 quarterbacks, Manning far and away tops the list with a career AV of 271. He’s joined near the top by still-active Matthew Stafford (196) and his brother Eli Manning (169).
Those are the only three in the group to have won a Super Bowl (three others – Cameron Newton, Jared Goff, and Joe Burrow – made the Super Bowl, but didn’t win).
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To round out the top five, Carson Palmer is fourth with a career AV of 141, while Newton sits just behind him at 140.
To reach the average of these quarterbacks, Mendoza will need to hit a career AV of 88.2. That would put him just below still-active Baker Mayfield (94 AV) and the duo of Andrew Luck and Kyler Murray (both at 80). Non-top draft pick quarterbacks with an AV of 88 include Super Bowl winner Jalen Hurts, former Raider Daryle Lamonica and longtime Seattle Seahawk Jim Zorn.
Of course, it’s hard to consider the career potential of Mendoza without looking at the last quarterback the Raiders drafted No. 1 overall – JaMarcus Russell in 2007. Russell occupies the bottom of this list with the career AV of 6 that he scored over three seasons and 25 starts.
It’s difficult to quantify just how poor that AV is – out of the 141 quarterbacks to have started 25 or more games since 1998, Russell is 141st when it comes to career AV. That places him right behind journeyman Mike Glennon and 2021 draft pick Zach Wilson.
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Ultimately, that’s the standard Mendoza will be measured against – not just avoiding Russell’s fate, but proving worthy of one of the most scrutinized picks in all of sports.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ranking QBs taken No. 1 in the NFL draft by statistical analysis
