Opinion: Is Vancouver primed for a political earthquake or just a tremor?

Vancouver is known for its active geological plate tectonics, but its political fault lines are proving to be equally volatile. Divided by wealth, housing tenure, and competing urban priorities, the city is at constant risk of a political earthquake. With voters heading to the polls on Oct. 17 to elect a mayor, 10 councillors and various civic boards, the stakes for our city’s future are as high as ever.

Facing off against incumbent Mayor Ken Sim and his ABC council majority are a constellation of partially aligned progressive left-of-centre parties — COPE, OneCity, and the Greens. Pete Fry has emerged as the progressive mayoral candidate.

Also in the field are three parties presenting themselves as more centrist alternatives: former ABC staffer Kareem Allam and his Vancouver Liberals, former NPA councillor Colleen Hardwick and her Team for a Livable Vancouver slate, and former ABC councillor Rebecca Bligh and her Vote Vancouver party.

The crowded field to be followed by a provincial election one week later makes for an unpredictable race.

The fault lines in Vancouver society are particularly pronounced.

The municipality, ninth largest in the country, holds the second-highest level of income inequality among major Canadian cities, behind only Toronto. Fifty-five per cent of the city’s households rent, yet these renter households survive on a median income of $63,200, compared to $100,000 for homeowners.

The human cost is visible on our streets, with over 2,700 people experiencing homelessness — a 12 per cent increase since 2023 — and approximately 6,500 more teetering on the precarious edge of losing their housing. Even with a recent population decline following decades of continuous increase, housing costs remain disconnected from more static local incomes.

Faced with these distinct but related crises, the current council’s fiscal choices have been revealing.

The city’s operating budget continues to expand, rising to $2.39 billion for fiscal 2026/27. To fulfil a promise of a zero property tax increase for 2026, council slashed vital non-police services, which included the complete dissolution of the city’s sustainability department.

This aligns closely with the governing ABC party’s 2022 campaign priorities. While the administration successfully hired 100 police officers, they faced heavy criticism for failing to deliver promised support for mental health nurses.

Vancouver’s local governance is also increasingly colliding with the province of B.C. Invoking its authority as the senior level of government, Victoria mandated neighbourhood densification targets to combat the provincial housing shortage.

While aiming to increase supply, these rule changes have restricted cities’ access to policy instruments previously used to extract community amenities from developers during rezoning. The Canadian Urban Institute estimates that each new dwelling unit requires $107,000 in housing-enabling infrastructure, and it remains unclear who will pay to support the additional development.