One Nation’s win leaves the Liberal Party exposed
One Nation’s victory in the Farrer byelection poses a dilemma for a Liberal Party caught between being moderate in the city and less restrained in the regions to regain frittered support.
Pauline Hanson’s party has been handicapped by a preferential voting system allowing election of upper house members on small voting turnouts while restricting lower house success, but the Farrer landslide, in which her candidate David Farley romped home with 57 per cent of the two-party vote, has rewritten history.
If Hanson can move on from her career of populist stunts and sloganeering without any policy, the Coalition faces the daunting possibility of One Nation nibbling federal outer suburban and regional seats.
Hanson said the victory was indicative of disenchantment with major political parties, but Liberal frontbencher Tim Wilson would not rule out accepting One Nation into the Coalition, a course that may go down well in the regions but like a lead balloon in city seats across Australia.
The Liberals suffered a swing of more than 30 per cent, a rout resulting from a cluster of political mistakes.
The party has been limping since Peter Dutton lost the 2025 election and disaffected conservative voters, driven by deepening distrust and discontent, drifted as MPs indulged in leadership battles.
Sky News is an important news outlet in regional Australia and its one-dimensional coverage drip fed Farrer voters with a steady diet of One Nation, but the undermining of Liberal leader Sussan Ley had the texture of an insult to locals who had voted for her for 25 years. Then injury was added by the decision to preference One Nation. Its anti-immigration agenda will undoubtedly be a continuing hurt seized upon by Labor in the upcoming Victorian and NSW elections.
Hanson has fulminated against Labor ever since she walked onto the national stage as a disendorsed Queensland Liberal candidate in 1996, but One Nation’s capture of four seats in the March South Australian election and its strong byelection showing in a May 2 Victorian Liberal stronghold illustrates her feasting on her own side of politics.
The issues driving conservative voters’ changes of heart are immigration, cost of living and housing affordability, but Hanson’s great play has been capitalising on voters who believe they have missed out.
And compared to city cousins, voters living in regional Australia are missing out big time. They’ve seen the flight of doctors, airlines and banks while metropolitan areas have been provided with specialist healthcare, allied health, mental health support, specialised disability services and reliable public transport.
By treating regional Australians as second-class citizens, the Coalition and Labor opened the way to One Nation’s historic Farrer victory and the Liberals are paying the political price.
The Farrer result suggests only the National Party could now defend regional seats, but even that looks difficult. That leaves Liberal leader Angus Taylor, having directed preferences to One Nation, with the Herculean task of convincing heartland Liberals, some of whom decamped to the teals and do not want a bar of Hanson, to come home. Good luck with that.
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