Oil prices have fallen to the lowest level since late August while stock markets climbed higher, as markets reacted with relief to Donald Trump saying that the war on Iran is “effectively over”.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell nearly 3% to $89.66, the lowest since 31 August, on Tuesday morning, after the US president downplayed the need for military action against Iran “at this point”. The fall came after a near 6% drop on Monday on signs that the conflict might be nearing an end.
Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 index gained 0.9% to 662.54, hovering near a record high, which it had hit in early August on hopes for a peace deal in the Middle East.
Airline stocks rose amid hopes that easing tensions could lead to lower fuel costs, with Lufthansa 1.8% ahead and Air France-KLM up 1.2%.
In London, the FTSE 100 index climbed 45 points, or 0.4%, to 10,828. The oil companies BP and Shell were the biggest losers, down 1.7% and 1.5% respectively.
During a White House press conference, Trump said Israel and Gulf allies in the region were well protected from Iran and an escalation was not needed.
“At this point, taking the military action doesn’t seem to be a very necessary thing – but we’re locked and loaded, ready to go for any reason,” he told reporters during a briefing at the White House.
Daniela Hathorn, a senior market analyst at the trading platform Capital.com, said: “Global markets are extending their recovery this morning after Wall Street recorded a strong session that was relatively broad-based, supported by a sharp decline in oil prices and renewed buying in technology stocks.”
However, the US Federal Reserve will want more evidence of slowing inflation, she said. The latest US inflation data for October will be released at 1.30pm GMT.
Hathorn added: “Ultimately, markets are benefiting from an improvement in the geopolitical outlook, but the underlying macroeconomic and corporate risks remain unresolved. Lower energy prices could help ease inflation expectations, but the Fed will need evidence of broader disinflation before reconsidering its policy stance.
“The key question is whether today’s inflation figures support the recovery or remind investors that resilient economic growth and persistent price pressures could keep borrowing costs elevated for longer. With technology valuations still sensitive to yields, another inflation surprise could quickly bring volatility back into focus.”
Drivers will hope the fall in wholesale oil prices continues to feed through to prices at the pump.
The AA said on Monday at the average UK petrol price had fallen 5p a litre since early October, to 169.7p a litre, and that wholesale markets indicated that another 10p reduction should be on the way.
