Though by a narrow margin, a rightwing bid to curb immigration to Switzerland looks likely to be accepted at the upcoming referendum.
While the government, the majority of political parties, economists, trade unions, police, and employers’ associations are urging voters to reject the Swiss People’s Party’s (SVP) proposal to drastically limit the number of foreigners coming to Switzerland, just over half of Swiss citizens – 52 percent to be exact – support the measure.
On the other hand, 46 percent oppose it, and 2 percent are still undecided.
This is what emerges from the latest survey, carried out on April 22nd and 23rd among 16,000 voters by Tamedia media group.
As for main reasons for the growing support, the risks associated with immigration – including security, crime, as well as a burden placed on housing and other key infrastructure – are the top concerns cited.
Conversely, opponents believe that accepting the proposal would jeopardise bilateral agreements with the EU and exacerbate the shortage of skilled labour.
Who is for and against the initiative?
It appears that a regional / linguistic divide plays a major role.
Specifically, Italian-speaking Ticino, along with German-speaking cantons, support the initiative (53 and 54 percent, respectively), while support only reaches 48 percent in French-speaking Switzerland.
A divide between urban and rural areas has also emerged: city dwellers reject the proposal by 55 percent, while it has a 57-percent support in rural parts of the country – not coincidentally, the areas where most of SVP backers live.
It is worth noting that the new numbers are different from those in the previous Tamedia survey published in March, when 47 percent of respondents said they were against the SVP proposal, while 45 percent supported it, and 8 percent were undecided.
Against the historical trend?
As The Local recently reported, for the past 55 years, Swiss voters had overwhelmingly rejected referendums seeking to limit immigration.
READ MORE: Past bids to cut immigration in Switzerland failed at the polls
In all instances except one, they sided with the government, which had sounded the alarm against limiting the number of foreign workers in Switzerland.
The ‘No to 10 million’ initiative seems – at least based on the most recent poll – to be going against this trend.
Worst-case scenario
If the proposal does end up being approved, it will spell a disaster not only for Switzerland’s economy, which relies heavily on foreign employees to fill shortages in the labour market, but also on the country’s relations with the European Union.
That’s because it would violate the terms of the Free Movement of Persons Agreement that has been in effect for more than 20 years, and which gives EU citizens unlimited access to Swiss jobs.
READ MORE: If the ‘no to 10 million’ proposal passes, Switzerland would be stifled
