It’s already Day 10 of the NBA season! What have been the biggest surprises so far? Most concerning starts? Under-the-radar developments? Our writers weigh in on the first week-plus of play and power rank their five best teams in the early going.
Tom Haberstroh: Damian Lillard, Ja Morant and the Portland Trail Blazers bringing the joy back to Rip City. After a tumultuous summer of cuts and political infighting, the basketball — that actual sport by which everything revolves — could not be more refreshing. Dame Time is back, Ja Morant has arrived and Deni Avdija is flourishing.
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Steve Jones: The Trail Blazers. Ja Morant has played with joy and hustle, getting to his spots with drives and cutting to make defenses pay for helping. Damian Lillard’s ability to be used on- and off-ball has opened up a ton. There’s a consistent energy boost from Jrue Holiday, Robert Williams III, Sidy Cissoko and Scoot Henderson that keeps the Blazers consistent. Every year there is a team that shows early buy-in that turns into success; the Blazers have worked to answer offseason questions.
Dan Devine: The Grizzlies, who opened 4-0 after not having a single four-game winning streak all of last season. It obviously starts with Ty Jerome getting enough minutes and touches to make all that math matter, but there’s also: Cam Boozer walking into the NBA as a 15-10-5 guy even without his shot falling; Cedric Coward and Jaylen Wells shooting the cover off the ball as young wings; Zach Edey and Isaiah Stewart leading the league’s best interior-rim-protecting unit; etc. Trading away Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane made Memphis feel like a team in the midst of a full-tilt rebuild, but it was also one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NBA last season. Give ’em a clean bill of health and an instant-impact rookie, and the Grizz might be a hell of a lot better than we thought.
Kelly Iko: The Rockets. A team that has floundered near the bottom in half-court offensive efficiency for years is fourth courtesy of an absolutely lethal Fred VanVleet pick-and-roll approach. Houston has been able to quietly take the ball out of Kevin Durant’s hands more, lessening the creation and decision-making pressure he was left with last season, and simplified some of Alperen Şengün’s choices (a career high in scoring efficiency). It’s still quite early in the season for longevity purposes, but it’s been a welcome change.
Iko: The Heat.Miami’s win over Atlanta felt like a must-win, which is concerning in itself. But for this particular group, boasting some of the most versatile defenders around, to be 27th in efficiency is shocking. A frontcourt led by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo is fifth in opponent rim rate (and conversion), but is getting torched on the perimeter. Davion Mitchell isn’t generating the same pressure he typically does, Klay Thompson is an absolute shell of himself defensively and things move a bit sluggishly on that end of the floor altogether. This looks more like a play-in team than a noisemaker in the East, and that’s concerning given the offseason resources exhausted.
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Haberstroh: Players’ bodies. Anthony Edwards, Kawhi Leonard, Jalen Duren, Paolo Banchero, Jalen Williams, Tyrese Haliburton, Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Ingram, Ben Simmons. That’s nine current or former All-Stars who are out for the foreseeable future due to their bodies breaking down. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Jones: The Nuggets, because of my expectations for how they would build on last year. It may not matter as the wins are likely to stack up, but their defense can’t be this for them to find their high level of success, especially if the offense isn’t hitting all the right notes. Fix one, get it done, get back off to the races.
Devine: The Kings. It’s not exactly a surprise; I think everyone expected them to be very bad. But they are 0-4, have already lost two games by 25 or more points, and are getting outscored by more than 16 points per 100 possessions. Several potential rays of sunshine — Ben Simmons, Maxime Raynaud, Keegan Murray, Dylan Cardwell — are already out injured. Rookie point guard Darius Acuff is on pace to become the first rookie to take 20 shots a game in 50 years, which would be fine if he weren’t missing two-thirds of them. Domantas Sabonis is averaging 19-17-7 on 72% shooting and it just, like, doesn’t matter? At all?
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Asked how a team in Sacramento’s position might turn it around, Zach LaVine rattled off some of the key factors: strong organizational leadership from up top, an on-court floor general, an experienced veteran head coach. And then he straight up said, “We don’t really have any of that right now, and it’s not going to come anytime soon.” Which, y’know: Yikes!
Jones: The Mavericks finding a way to build an offense that highlights Cooper Flagg’s strengths, takes nothing away from what Kyrie Irving brings to the table and opens things up for everyone to play a role. Their work to move the ball, to have actions running on both sides, and to blend cuts and dribble penetration has stood out early this season. Also, who is ready for Brandon Miller, Most Improved Player?
Devine: The Raptors have nearly as many steals (57) as turnovers (60) through their first four games, and are forcing opponents to cough the ball up on nearly 22% of their offensive possessions. No team has finished a season with a rate above 19% in the 23 years for which Cleaning the Glass has opponent turnover data. And this is with Kawhi Leonard playing two games without looking at all like himself before going on the injured list, and with Toronto giving more minutes to veteran Jakob Poeltl than young doomsday device Collin Murray-Boyles (which I would expect to change sooner rather than later). If the Raptors go from a top-seven defense to the NBA’s best defense, they become a hell of a lot more dangerous as a postseason threat — especially if Kawhi comes back moving and shooting better after his early-season siesta.
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Iko: Alperen Şengün is attempting over two 3s a game — and connecting on over 60% of them! When we talked about ways Houston’s ’70s-style offense could improve, one less-heralded note was Şengün becoming more comfortable taking outside shots, whether as a trailer or because defenses are showing crowds. I think it’s more important that he simply takes the shots than his ability to convert them, which doesn’t take away from what the Rockets do overall offensively.
Haberstroh: Ty Jerome and the Memphis Grizzlies. I get why people are skeptical this can last — the potential for injury derailing everything looms large as does the soft schedule making them look better than they are. But Jerome is the breakout star of the season and his supporting cast is way better than advertised. (You should read about Jerome’s long-awaited breakout.)
Devine: 1. Rockets, 2. Sixers, 3. Thunder, 4. Lakers, 5. Knicks
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Houston’s undefeated with top-five units on both ends, bolstered by Fred VanVleet’s return. Philly’s defense has been surprisingly sensational to start, and while its 27th-ranked offense is still ironing out the kinks, Tyrese Maxey looks like a legit MVP candidate. Oklahoma City’s obviously feeling the pain of the brutal injuries to Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander plus that defense plus a scintillating start for Ajay Mitchell has them up near the top for me. Ditto for the Lakers, who’ve gotten red-hot starts from a top-two offense led by Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, to go with a league-average defense — exactly the formula they need to contend.
Yes, the Knicks opened the season 0-3, and yes, their starters (outside of Karl-Anthony Towns) are still thawing out their jumpers. But after taking care of the Pistons and scoring 77 second-half points to beat the Bulls on the road on the second night of a back-to-back, it seems like the offense is getting unstuck, which makes me feel OK about giving the champs the benefit of the doubt for the final spot here.
Iko: 1. Rockets, 2. Pistons, 3. Sixers, 4. Blazers, 5. Grizzlies
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Houston is healthy and flowing. Cade Cunningham continues to be the straw that stirs the drink and Ausar Thompson has relaunched his bid for DPOY early (as has his twin brother in Houston). Philly is an absolute blur in transition (when generating stops) and might need to lean into that as opposed to the benefits of bringing four offensive stars together. Ja Morant and Dame Lillard are the awkward pairing this league never knew it needed, and who doesn’t love what the kids in Memphis are doing? Fun, energetic, and inspiring.
Haberstroh: 1. Spurs, 2. Thunder, 3. Rockets, 4. Sixers, 5. Lakers
San Antonio’s heartbreaker in Houston woke the team up. OKC’s roster replenishes itself like a tide. Another season, another fast start for Ime Udoka’s Rockets. LeBron James, backup center, was not in the cards so soon. Luka-AR averaging 60 points and 10 turnovers. It’s a show.
Jones: 1. Rockets, 2. Pistons, 3. Sixers, 4. Thunder, 5. Knicks
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Houston has picked up the pace on offense and is still defending, while VanVleet’s return has slotted everyone into more natural roles. Detroit may have gotten better, the defense remains disruptive and Cade Cunningham has been assertive. The 76ers have plenty of work to do, but it’s clear they are working to build this the right way. The defense holding up combined with an ability to problem-solve on the fly is a great early sign. In OKC, adversity has unfortunately knocked on the door with the injuries, but the defense has been suffocating to start the season. The Knicks’ rough start will likely benefit them as the season goes on. When they get back to playing defense at a high level, they are still a top-tier team.
