College football analyst Josh Pate questioned whether BYU belongs at No. 8 in the Associated Press Top 25 after the unbeaten Cougars ground out a 17-10 win at TCU, and he raised the same doubt about the rest of the Big 12.
BYU moved up two spots in Sunday’s poll after gaining 216 total yards on a rainy night in Fort Worth, Texas. “I’m pretty sure there are more than eight teams better than Brigham Young,” Pate said on Josh Pate’s College Football Show.
Pate hedged before he delivered that line. He once picked BYU to win the Big 12 in his early predictions, switched to Texas Tech shortly before the season and called the Cougars “a legitimate playoff threat” in July.
“I’m not going to plant the flag hardcore here, but Brigham Young’s at eight,” Pate said. “This is not predictive. It’s not supposed to be a power rating.”
Josh Pate questions BYU’s resume
“Utah Tech, Arizona, Colorado State, TCU. Those are your wins,” Pate said. “They beat TCU by seven yesterday. That’s not a good TCU team. They had 62 passing yards. They had just over 200 yards total offense, but they’re undefeated and a lot was expected of them in the preseason.”
BYU opened with a 63-7 rout of Utah Tech, a Football Championship Subdivision program, then beat Arizona 28-17 and won 41-23 at Colorado State. TCU fell to 2-3 with Saturday’s loss.
Quarterback Bear Bachmeier completed 11 of 24 passes in the rain, and BYU lost running back LJ Martin, the 2025 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, to an apparent ankle injury after two carries. Bachmeier still ran for both touchdowns, including a 21-yard clincher with 2:06 left.
The Cougars’ season-long efficiency profile backs part of Pate’s skepticism. BYU ranks 19th nationally in opponent-adjusted expected points added per play margin (think of it like efficiency per play adjusted for strength of schedule), and its 55% rushing success rate leads the country, while its 43.5% passing success rate ranks 75th.
Pate said voters protect unbeaten teams that entered the season with high expectations. “So that’s just the way an AP voter’s mind works,” Pate said. “They’re not going to start bumping you if they thought something of you until you lose games. You can disagree with that logic. I do too.”
How good is the Big 12?
Pate said the Provo program is hard to place because its league has produced so few cross-conference results. “The Big 12 feels to me like an island,” Pate said. “It’s just offshore. You can see it, but you don’t really know what’s on the island.”
Oklahoma State delivered the conference’s signature result on Sept. 12, beating then-No. 6 Oregon 39-31 in Stillwater, Okla., to end a 21-game losing streak against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker threw for 317 yards and ran for 109 more.
Pate left both outcomes open. “So it could be that the entire top half of that conference is better than we realize,” Pate said.
“But in a wide-open setting like the AP poll, where you’re compared to the rest of the country, all of them may be overrated,” he added. “Don’t know. Quite literally don’t know.”
Five Big 12 teams are ranked: BYU, No. 11 Texas Tech after a 29-7 win at Colorado, No. 12 Utah, No. 18 Oklahoma State and No. 22 Houston. Pate singled out the last two as possible league contenders.
“It may very well be that those teams at 18 and 22 end up being one or two of the best teams in the league,” Pate said. “I’d especially say that about Oklahoma State. I don’t think really many people want to play them right now.”
The 5-0 Red Raiders visit the 3-1 Cowboys on Nov. 14.
BYU faces Iowa State, Notre Dame
BYU hosts Iowa State on Friday at 10:15 p.m. ET before No. 3 Notre Dame visits Provo, Utah, on Oct. 17. Pate contrasted that schedule with the one facing No. 6 Alabama.
“I know Bama’s got the tests coming, so I don’t really worry about it all that much,” Pate said. “I don’t know where all the tests are for Brigham Young outside of when Notre Dame goes out there. And if that’s a definitive 30-10 kind of final, do they plummet or do they just fall six spots or something like that?”
Martin’s status hangs over both home games. Linebacker Isaiah Glasker also left the TCU game in the first half, and BYU coach Kalani Sitake didn’t provide a diagnosis for either player afterward.
“So it wasn’t like those guys were on crutches or anything like that,” Sitake said.
Martin entered the TCU game averaging 109.3 rushing yards per game.
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