Earlier this month, Pate had Notre Dame defeating Texas in the national championship game and ultimately winning the title.
He had the Hurricanes as the 3-seed in his “CFP Prediction Version 1.0” and losing to the Texas Longhorns in the quarterfinals.
Just a few weeks later, he has completely changed course.
Now, Pate has Miami as the 4-seed in his final prediction, with Notre Dame as the 1-seed (meaning the Canes suffer a defeat in South Bend in the regular season).
He has the Canes getting revenge from last year’s title game and defeating the Indiana Hoosiers in the quarterfinals, just to face the Fighting Irish one last time.
Pate believes Miami will defeat Notre Dame and head back to the national championship game and take on a familiar institution that our head coach knows a lot about.
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The matchup carries a lot of interesting storylines because head coach Mario Cristobal previously coached at Oregon before taking over the Hurricanes and all the chatter between the fan bases when it happened (and still occurring to this date).
But the storyline isn’t the reason Miami is his pick.
Pate clearly believes the Hurricanes have the roster and quarterback situation necessary to finish the job this time around.
He referred to the things he has been hearing from Miami and how great camp has been. This is noteworthy because Pate was one of the first national analysts to publicly come out and defend and support the Canes last year early in the season after watching them play in-person and talking to some people.
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He tried to warn everyone about how great that team was last season while everyone was in a “have to believe it to see it” vibe. Once Pate saw that team in person, he knew.
And now, Pate believes in this 2026 team from the jump.
The Hurricanes aren’t relying solely on new QB Darian Mensah to carry them.
Miami returns one of the nation’s most exciting young receivers in Malachi Toney, who is coming off a historic freshman season.
Mark Fletcher Jr. also returns after rushing for 1,192 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2025.
And the Hurricanes added significant talent through the transfer portal, including former Duke receiver Cooper Barkate, who followed Mensah to Coral Gables.
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Defensively, Miami will have to replace major production from last year’s team, but the Hurricanes still have plenty of talent.
Ahmad Moten and Damon Wilson II headline a defensive front that could determine just how far Miami goes in the postseason.
Boston College transfer Omar Thornton has been a camp darling with the amount of buzz he has generated, including true freshman JJ Dunnigan.
The ultimate question(s) surrounding this team are:
Can Miami replace enough of its defensive production to remain one of the country’s best teams? Can they duplicate the success they had in the trenches on both sides of the ball?
Pate believes the answer is yes, and so do I.
