TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Israeli election results are in, showing the makeup of the country’s next parliament but leaving open the question of who will be prime minister.
Party leaders will now hold high-stakes negotiations as they try to cobble together a 61-seat coalition in the 120-member assembly, known as the Knesset.
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It’s a tough path ahead for both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Neither of their camps won a majority, and Arab-led parties, which won a historic 19 seats, could play a decisive role.
Any possible coalition would require candidates to make tough compromises that could outrage their own voters. If they are unable to do so, new elections would be held early next year, with Netanyahu’s government staying on as caretaker until then.
Here is a look at the possible scenarios:
Eisenkot and the Arab parties
On paper, the most straightforward solution would be for Eisenkot to join forces with the Arab-led parties in a solid, 67-seat coalition opposed to Netanyahu. Even if they don’t join his coalition, they could provide crucial backing for a minority government.
But that would be politically risky for Eisenkot and his Jewish allies.
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Israel’s Arab citizens, who make up 20% of its population, are Palestinians whose families remained in Israel after the 1948 war surrounding its creation. They have close ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza and largely support their cause, leading many Jewish Israelis to view them with suspicion.
Only once has an Arab party joined a governing coalition, in 2021, and that government only lasted around 18 months.
Netanyahu is already portraying any such alliance as a betrayal of Israel’s Jewish identity and a national security threat, raising the pressure on Eisenkot’s allies, particularly those on the right, to reject it.
Unity government
Netanyahu could try to convince Eisenkot and his right-leaning allies to instead ally with the prime minister.
This constellation could give Netanyahu a 67-seat majority and would send Arab-led parties, as well as ultranationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish factions, to the opposition. Such a government could tackle pressing issues like military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox or work to shore up Israel’s economy.
It would require a lot of promise-breaking, though.
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Eisenkot and his allies have vowed not to sit in government with Netanyahu after blaming him for the security failures surrounding Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack, accusing him of undermining Israel’s democratic institutions and highlighting his ongoing corruption trial.
A government led by Netanyahu is unlikely to approve an official inquiry into the Oct. 7 attack, a central demand of opposition voters. And in the past, when Israeli opposition leaders have defied their voters to join Netanyahu, their political support has plummeted.
The arrangement would also require Netanyahu to jettison far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies who stood by him after the attack and through multiple wars and other crises.
Poaching defectors
Netanyahu is likely looking for weak links in the opposition bloc, which spans Israel’s political spectrum.
He could try to lure some of his former allies, like right-wing party leaders Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman. Both strongly support nationalist policies like expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank, and would find it particularly difficult to partner with Arab parties.
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But they have clashed with Netanyahu, often on personal terms, for years, and had vowed not to partner with him. They are also deeply opposed to the military exemptions that are a make-or-break demand of Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies.
Eisenkot has fewer possibilities, as Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud, and his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies, have been fiercely loyal to him over the years.
New elections
If neither side manages to secure a majority, the country could be headed toward another election, likely early next year. Netanyahu’s government would remain in a caretaker role until then.
This scenario could be disastrous for Netanyahu’s opponents, who had momentum heading into this election, even though the outcome fell short of their expectations. They enjoyed a boost from tens of thousands of Israelis who flew in from abroad to vote but might not travel a second time.
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Netanyahu would meanwhile buy time to shore up his coalition. Smaller right-wing parties that failed to meet the threshold for entering parliament essentially wasted pro-Netanyahu votes. They might not run a second time, or their supporters might switch over to the bigger far-right parties, strengthening the prime minister.
After a similar stalemate in 2019, Israel held five elections in 3 1/2 years.
Tia Goldenberg has been covering Israeli politics for nearly two decades.
