2026 federal budget analysis: SMH, The Age experts have their say
Jim Chalmers’ fifth budget broke election promises, but the government says it simply had to rebalance Australia’s wealth.
Changes to tax settings, including negative gearing and the Capital Gains Tax, will make home ownership more achievable to younger generations but less enticing to investors – while millions of workers will receive additional tax offsets.
Our panel of experts – senior economics correspondent Shane Wright, political editor Peter Hartcher, economics editor Ross Gittins, senior writer Jacqueline Maley and chief political commentator James Massola – parsed the budget papers and delivered their verdicts.
Chalmers is not only betting his fifth budget will deliver Millennials and Zoomers a chance at owning a home while delivering a much-needed boost to productivity, but that the war against Iran ends soon.
The war is the dark cloud over this entire budget. Chalmers’ forecasts are predicated on oil gradually falling from $US100 a barrel through the rest of this year.
But if oil spikes to $US200 a barrel then economic trouble ensues.
Read Shane Wright’s full analysis here.
Because it’s a Labor dream, this budget will be attacked by the Coalition as a nightmare.
Which is exactly what the Albanese government is hoping for.
By fighting to protect investors and older people, the Coalition will defend a dying demographic. And alienate the fast-growing younger.
Read Peter Hartcher’s full analysis here.
It pains me to say nice things about politicians, but this is a good budget. Translation: there’s a lot in it you’re not gonna like, and not much you will.
The budget’s far from perfect, of course. But it’s good because it gets on with doing what needs to be done – not something you can say about every budget.
To tell the truth, the courage Anthony Albanese has shown in proposing a budget as reforming as this one has surprised me.
Read Ross Gittins’ full analysis here.
The economic forecasts that underlie Chalmers’ budget are a pick-a-path, depending on the whims of Donald Trump and his fearsome Iranian adversaries.
Trying to predict anything in this environment is like tap-dancing on jelly.
Chalmers, with this budget, is gambling against self-interest; betting on the fact that enough older Australians acknowledge the generational inequity, and will support his property tax reforms.
Read Jacqueline Maley’s full analysis here.
This is the budget Chalmers has been itching to hand down for a decade.
It will be framed by Labor as an economically responsible budget that makes difficult but necessary decisions to raise taxes, cut spending and boost productivity.
But it’s more significant than that because of the scope and ambition of what Labor is trying to achieve. It’s also unbalanced in that it embraces some big challenges and shuns others.
Read James Massola’s full analysis here.
Get across all our coverage
- Winners and losers: This is who benefits from the budget, and who misses out
- Tax changes: Negative gearing, CGT, family trusts and how this will affect the property market
- Generational divide: Baby Boomers, Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z, this is what the budget means for you
- Listen: Shane Wright and Samantha Selinger-Morris unpack the budget on The Morning Edition podcast
- What you said: Everyday Australians tell us what they think of the budget
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Shane Wrightis a senior economics correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect viaXoremail.
Peter Hartcheris political editor and international editor of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect viaemail.
James Massolais chief political commentator. He was previously national affairs editor and South-East Asia correspondent. He has won Quill and Kennedy awards and been a Walkley finalist. Connect securely on Signal @jamesmassola.01Connect viaXoremail.
