Is Hanson’s rise Albanese’s fall? Not so fast

A month ago, Anthony Albanese gave a remarkably sanguine admission of the fact that sometimes there is nothing you can do to stop political decline. “I firmly believe that if you govern in the right way, and you get the policies right, then the politics will look after itself,” he told The Saturday Paper. “And if it doesn’t, due to circumstances beyond your control, well, that’s OK.”

Is Labor in political decline? The opinion of pundits right now seems drastically split. On one hand, there is acceptance that Labor is very likely to win the next federal election – because it starts with a huge seat majority and the conservative vote is split between teals, One Nation and the Coalition. At the same time, there is a growing hum of commentary suggesting the government is in trouble, Albanese is unpopular and fighting back could be tough.

Saturday’s result in the byelection for the West Australian state seat of Secret Harbour will amplify that hum. The WA Labor government suffered a huge swing against it, its MP’s primary vote being almost halved. One Nation won decisively.

Albanese would have had a good sense this was coming: context for the fact that last week, visiting the state, he gave a clear indication he is aware that anything might happen between now and the next federal election. That indication came in the form of a clear commitment to continue the ridiculously generous deal WA gets on the GST.

This undermines his first point from last month – that if policies are right, the politics will look after themselves. The WA GST deal is bad policy, hugely expensive and unfair to all other states and the people who live in them – as the Productivity Commission’s recent interim report made clear.

But the commitment shows Albanese is entirely genuine when he refers to the possibility of circumstances running beyond you. The only good reason to keep the GST deal is the knowledge that the moment Labor breaks its word, every one of its opponents in WA will move in for the kill. And the only reason that matters is if you believe it is possible that, at the 2028 election, those WA seats might turn out to be essential. Albanese is not betting Labor will be in political strife by 2028, but he is obviously taking out insurance just in case.

On the politics, this is understandable. The Secret Harbour byelection means little federally. First, it’s a state seat. Second, byelections indicate nothing about the future. They are not full elections, which people know: voters are free to lodge a protest without having to worry about changing the government.

This has been true in most of One Nation’s recent successes: in the Farrer byelection in NSW and in the South Australian election, when everybody knew Labor would win. But then Albanese, who is always thinking ahead, will be cognisant this is a real risk in 2028, too. If voters believe Labor is guaranteed victory, they might feel free to vote One Nation, whatever their reservations about the party’s seriousness.

Or perhaps One Nation will become more serious – something it is clearly attempting. Recently, it hired one of Scott Morrison’s former advisers. He had been working at the Australian Banking Association. Then it hired another ABA employee. About the same time, it announced it would cut tobacco taxes. That policy had potential cut-through – everybody knows about illegal tobacco – and aligned with calls from some economic experts.

This move towards seriousness will be undermined if its Farrer MP, David Farley, ends up leaving the party, as is rumoured.

Last week, a higher-than-expected inflation figure came in, leading to speculation about a rate rise in November or even September. It is true that a rate rise will be bad for the government – and may help One Nation. But the signals are hugely mixed, with some economists advising caution while we wait for more data. And this should give the political class pause.

A significant factor in Labor’s struggles last term was inflation. Poor(ish) polls were often read as a sign of broad trouble, rather than simply what happens to every government during an inflationary surge. By the election, inflation had fallen and the government won. And despite the entire political class having lived through this, there is a fair bit of amnesia around. It could be that some of Labor’s current polling troubles (which, it must be said, its opponents would kill to have) are the result of wider dissatisfaction. But it is also possible they are largely traceable to inflation.

In which case, if inflation begins to slide again, Labor could see a recovery similar to 2025. There is every chance that will happen. The Reserve Bank, in its August monetary statement, observed that its May prediction – that the Middle East conflict would rapidly drive up prices – had been incorrect. Predictions aren’t lasting long.

But the government will face other hurdles. As inflation comes off, voters are likely to sharpen their focus on the government’s achievements – a focus Albanese has invited. In the same interview in which he accepted the role of circumstance, Albanese made the point that seeing everything through the prism of One Nation could distort things. “You can get swamped by, ‘What are we doing about Hanson?’ No, no, no, no. It is the wrong question. ‘Are we governing properly?’ is the right question.”

That is a good reminder for those of us writing about politics. As the government prepares to release its immigration policy, it may be a useful reminder for Labor, too. Last week, it seemed the government was cutting the country’s refugee intake – before the prime minister made clear it would remain where it was. If the GST deal was a sign that sometimes the politics comes ahead of sensible policy, the refugee decision was a welcome sign that One Nation isn’t yet quite as influential as it sometimes seems to be.

The truth is that none of us really know what type of immigration policy is likely to stop One Nation’s rise. The focus – for Labor and everyone else – should be on whether the policy is a good one.

Sean Kelly is an author and regular columnist. He was an adviser to Labor prime ministers Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd.