The Toronto Maple Leafs hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, but recent discussion has raised an interesting question: could they pass on consensus top prospect Gavin McKenna?
According to The Athletic’s Corey Pronman, the odds remain extremely low, which is not a surprise.
Advertisement
In a recent mailbag, a fan asked, “How likely does it seem that Gavin McKenna drops past No. 1, and where would he go if he does?”
Pronman responded, “Ten percent? I think Toronto likes Ivar Stenberg and Chase Reid a lot, but the sense I got at the combine is that McKenna is their guy. It’s 50/50 for the San Jose Sharks to take him at No. 2, and he doesn’t get past the Vancouver Canucks at No. 3.”
MORE: Maple Leafs found their answer in 70-point Lightning D-man
That assessment aligns with the broader view around the league. McKenna is widely regarded as the premier talent in the draft class and one of the most dynamic offensive prospects to emerge in recent years.
Advertisement
The Penn State freshman recorded 51 points in 35 games during his draft season. He also starred for Canada at the World Junior Championship, producing 14 points in seven games.
Ivar Stenberg, an elite Swedish playmaker, and Chase Reid, a high-scoring OHL winger, are also projected in the top five, but the Leafs are most likely not going to pass on McKenna’s potential.
Toronto’s situation is unique compared to most teams drafting first overall. The Maple Leafs are not beginning a rebuild. Instead, they are attempting to recover quickly after a disastrous 32-36-14 season.
Advertisement
New general manager John Chayka has already reshaped parts of the roster. The front office has made it clear that returning to playoff contention is the immediate goal.
That reality strengthens the case for McKenna rather than weakening it. His elite playmaking, vision, and offensive creativity could help Toronto immediately. Meanwhile, selecting another prospect would introduce unnecessary risk. Stenberg and Reid are highly regarded players, but neither carries McKenna’s combination of production, upside, and consensus support.
The Maple Leafs also need to think beyond next season. Auston Matthews remains the franchise centerpiece, but the organization requires another elite young cornerstone to build around.
McKenna offers exactly that and offers a solution to fill the playmaking void after the departure of Mitch Marner. His skill set projects naturally alongside top offensive players and fits the faster, more creative style Chayka appears determined to establish.
Advertisement
MORE: Maple Leafs enter race for Ducks D-man who injured Auston Matthews
Until Toronto steps to the podium, surprises remain possible. Still, based on league sentiment and Pronman’s reporting, the chances of the Maple Leafs passing on McKenna appear slim.
