The NBA Playoffs are officially here – and the Atlanta Hawks will be participating in them.
After winning 46 games and playing like one of the best teams in basketball during the second half of the regular season, the Hawks earned a berth in the playoffs as a fascinating No. 6 seed with potential to upset one of the best teams in the NBA, the New York Knicks. It is also possible that the Knicks win in 4 or 5 games, but the Hawks have been playing great basketball for about two months now and it’s time to turn that momentum into a strong playoff performance.
It won’t be easy and this iteration of the Knicks has tons of playoff experience from their ECF run last summer. However, today’s game is an opportunity to set the tone of the series. A road win in the opening game of the series to silence a raucous New York crowd would go a long ways to showing Atlanta shouldn’t be counted out of this matchup.
By the Numbers
Atlanta’s offense in the halfcourt will be a question for this postseason, but their regular-season performance deserves praise for being so strong despite moving on from Trae Young and focusing around Jalen Johnson. They were 6th in points, 13th in FG%, 5th in 3P%, 20th in FT%, 18th in rebounds (18th in OREB, 13th in DREB), 1st in assists, and 10th in turnovers per game. They’re 14th in offensive rating this year.
The defense will almost certainly be at a disadvantage against the Knicks, but they’ve been able to hang with opponents throughout the second half of the season. They’re 18th in points allowed, 18th in FG% allowed, 12th in 3P% allowed, 21st in rebounds allowed, 5th in steals, and 18th in blocks. They’re 10th in defensive rating this year.
New York’s offense is extremely formidable and the burgeoning chemistry between Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns has taken it to another level. They are 10th in points, 11th in FG%, 4th in 3P%, 10th in FT%, 7th in rebounds (6th in OREB, 11th in DREB), 13th in assists, and 6th in turnovers per game. They’re 4th in offensive rating this year.
There are going to be some rough moments for the Knicks on defense during the playoffs, but they’ve been much better on that end than they were last season. They are 5th in points allowed, 5th in FG% allowed, 20th in 3P% allowed, 3rd in rebounds allowed, 19th in steals, and 27th in blocks. They’re 7th in defensive rating this year.
Three Reasons The Hawks Can Take Game 1
The playoffs are often defined by the players who are physical, generate contact and have the ability to make tough shots. All of that applies to Jalen Johnson. He’s as comfortable driving to the rim as he is taking a contested three-pointer. Johnson shot 35.7% from deep on 4.7 attempts a game while also shooting 70% at the rim (75th percentile among all forwards on high volume). His playmaking is going to be absolutely essential for the Hawks during the postseason and the Knicks are going to be forced to keep one of their best defenders on him at all times. That sets up Johnson to find teammates for easy looks and conduct Atlanta’s halfcourt offense like he’s done all season. He gives them a chance to set the tone of this series.
One of the biggest mismatches – on paper – is the Knicks’ struggles with slowing down shooters on the perimeter. They’re in the bottom third of the NBA for 3P% conceded and that bodes well for a player like CJ McCollum. He should be fresh and well-rested for Game 1, so the Hawks should lean into it and start him for this matchup so that he can give Atlanta’s offense a lift with his shooting. I do think it’d be worth exploring other starting options as the series goes on, but McCollum’s an excellent weapon for the Hawks to attack one of New York’s weaknesses with.
Atlanta’s pace is a huge advantage against most of the teams they play. They’re 5th in pace while New York is 26th, so they can tap into that mismatch. While things do tend to slow down in the postseason, it is also true that the more athletic teams tend to swing a game or two in their favor as a result of playing at a faster tempo. Atlanta’s ability to get back in transition and convert those opportunities into points is excellent. They’re 3rd in points off turnovers and fast-break points. New York is sixth in defending those situations in terms of points conceded, but the Hawks still hold the advantage.
Three Reasons The Hawks Can Lose Game 1
Mitchell Robinson is one of the biggest X-factors for this series because he’s both one of the best free throw shooters in the NBA and a terrible free throw shooter. If the Hawks can match his physicality on the boards with inspired performances from Onyeka Okongwu and Mo Gueye, that would go a long way towards showing that Atlanta’s biggest theoretical weakness won’t matter as much. It’ll also be interesting to see if the Knicks can survive Robinson getting intentionally fouled to slow down their offense.
New York’s other big man is also a force to stop for a different reason. Karl-Anthony Towns is arguably the best big man shooter ever while also being a great rebounder and having some big performances in the postseason. He’s also prone to bad decisions and quiet performances in the playoffs, so it’s hard to say which version of Towns the Knicks are getting. That being said, he’s torched the Hawks this year. In two games against Atlanta, KAT has averaged 28.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and one steal on absurd 63/50/94 splits.
The Knicks’ bench hasn’t gotten a lot of attention, but it will be interesting to see how pieces like Jose Alvarado and Deuce McBride affect the games for Atlanta. McBride in particular has experience as a series-swinging piece after strong performances against the 76ers in the first round of the 2023-24 playoffs. Alvarado was acquired at the trade deadline and has made a difference for the Knicks with his tenacious defense and ability to get hot from deep. Atlanta’s bench will have to dig deep in order to match them.
Injuries
Atlanta Hawks: Jock Landale has been ruled out.
New York Knicks: None.
How to Watch
Here is how you can watch tonight’s game:
Tip-off time: 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Projected Starting Lineups
Hawks
G – CJ McCollum
G – Nickeil Alexander-Walker
F – Dyson Daniels
F – Jalen Johnson
C – Onyeka Okongwu
Knicks
G – Jalen Brunson
G – Josh Hart
F – Mikal Bridges
F – OG Anunoby
C – Karl-Anthony Towns
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