Hanson argues a cut in migration worth the hit to the economy

Drastic cuts to Australia’s migration intake would be worth a temporary hit to the economy, Pauline Hanson has argued, as she dismisses criticism her headline policy could be recessionary.

One Nation has announced it wants to slash 750,000 temporary visa holders over three years to push the country into net-negative migration, but has not presented modelling on what the cost to the economy would be.

“If it’s going to hit the bottom line for a couple of months, but I think then it will improve, people’s quality of life will improve. Isn’t that what it’s about?” Hanson told News24 on Tuesday.

After the Coalition challenged Hanson to cost the policy, the One Nation leader said she did not trust economists to get forecasts right. She said she was “sick of listening to the big business [sic] who just want cheap labour into the country”.

Politicians of all stripes are staring down the pleas of billion-dollar industries responsible for educating and feeding the country, as parties race to rein in migration and public sentiment on the issue sours.

Under Hanson’s plan, international students would bear the brunt of cuts, while the families of skilled migrants would be barred from joining them in Australia. After a three-year “reset”, the party would aim for a ceiling of 130,000 in net migration – less than half today’s levels.

While universities sound the alarm on what Hanson’s plan could do to the $53 billion higher education industry, Labor’s attempt to slow arrivals by quietly pausing working holidaymaker visas from dozens of countries has come under fire from food producers and the tourism industry.

Visas that had taken days are now taking months, and farmers are bracing for a crunch point as the busiest time of year looms, Richard Shannon from the National Farmer’s Federation said.

“We don’t have any sense from the government on their destination. What is the right number of backpackers in this country to underpin food production and the affordability of fresh produce for Australian households?” Shannon told reporters in Canberra.

The Australian Tourism Industry Council also warned $3 billion in revenue and 20,000 jobs were at risk without a consistent flow of backpackers over the summer.

Nationals leader Matt Canavan on Tuesday vowed the Coalition would not cut working holidaymakers, echoing a promise from Hanson.

“There has been the increasing tendency of our universities to market themselves to supply visas and permanent residency rather than degrees, and that needs to be dealt with … instead of putting the costs on innocent industries, jobs in regional areas, and the overall health of our broader economy,” Canavan said.

Hanson appeared on News24 on Tuesday after opposition home affairs spokesman Jonno Duniam accused her of failing to front up and explain the details of her policy.

“Don’t just throw it out there and hide as they have,” Duniam told Radio National earlier on Tuesday.

“The idea of just bluntly cutting international education and international student numbers is a great headline, but the detail is where it is at.”

He said Australians expected to be able to interrogate policy proposals, and the Coalition’s plan, which he would announce within weeks, would be fully costed.

In a separate interview on News24, formerly Sky News, he denied the opposition would replicate One Nation’s plan.

“I would never copy a piece of work that has not been modelled,” he said, adding every declined visa came at a cost.

“It’s great to throw out some numbers. Some of them [visas] are uncapped. Some of them are capped. We’re not sure which ones, what impact it will have on the economy. Sorry, that is not a robust piece of work.”

Hanson kept a low profile in Canberra on Monday, with One Nation treasury spokesman Barnaby Joyce holding interviews, but avoiding questions about the policy cost.

On the ABC’s National Forum, Joyce told the audience: “The issue of what it is going to cost, I think, is contentious, but I have no concern about following the will of the Australian people.”

Hanson had been under fire for her attack on the prime minister’s late mother for living in public housing for decades, and for branding Indigenous Australians “the most primitive race on earth”, both of which she walked back when she appeared on Tuesday.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.