ESPN analyst Greg McElroy picked a winner for No. 5 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa, a Week 5 Big Ten showdown that brings College GameDay to Iowa City for the first time in 20 years.
On his Always College Football podcast, McElroy took the Buckeyes to win 24-14 on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS. He said Iowa’s defense will keep the game close for a half before wide receiver Jeremiah Smith takes over.
“Kinnick will be rocking,” McElroy said. “I just don’t know if Iowa has the downfield passing attack to punish a defense that’s going to be squatting all game long on the run game.”
McElroy ranked Ohio State No. 1 in his preseason top 10 in August. The Buckeyes have since lost 24-23 at Texas, but they’re 1-0 in Big Ten play, the same as the unbeaten Hawkeyes.
Why did McElroy pick Ohio State?
Smith, a junior, caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-19 win over Illinois last week. His four scores tied the Ohio State single-game record, and he became the first Buckeye with 3,000 career receiving yards.
Quarterback Julian Sayin threw for 367 yards against the Illini, and McElroy said Ohio State’s 11 yards per pass attempt ranks second in the country.
“If Smith gets to 100 yards, you feel pretty confident about Ohio State winning the game,” McElroy said.
McElroy said Ohio State is 63-1 under head coach Ryan Day when it runs for more than 150 yards. Iowa allows just 88 rushing yards per game, though.
Iowa run game versus Buckeye defense
McElroy called Iowa’s run game against the Ohio State front seven the most important matchup on Saturday. The Hawkeyes average 6.5 yards per carry, and running back Kamari Moulton leads the team with 284 yards.
Illinois gained 462 yards on the Buckeyes last week, the most Ohio State has allowed since Oregon put up 496 in October 2024.
Since 2005, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is 118-37 when his team throws fewer than 30 passes, according to McElroy. Quarterback Hank Brown hasn’t thrown an interception this season, and he beat Michigan with a 16-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Reece Vander Zee as time expired.
“Count Brown’s pass attempts,” McElroy said. “If it gets anywhere near 30, then Ohio State has probably taken the run game away, and then it’s chase mode for Iowa, which is a really bad recipe.”
How can Iowa pull the upset?
Ohio State’s last trip to Kinnick Stadium ended in a 55-24 loss in November 2017. Day was the Buckeyes’ co-offensive coordinator that day, and he has called the defeat “a scar that doesn’t go away.”
The loss at Texas is Ohio State’s only true road game this season. McElroy said the crowd could make it hard for an offense that shifts often before the snap.
McElroy also pointed to Iowa’s red zone defense, because opponents have scored touchdowns on fewer than 30% of their trips inside the Iowa 20. Ohio State turns three of four red zone trips into touchdowns.
“If the Buckeyes have to settle for field goals, then Iowa could very well find themselves in this game deep into the fourth quarter,” McElroy said.
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