When the Atlanta Hawks took Kingston Flemings with the eighth overall selection in the NBA draft, they obviously didn’t take him for his size.
Flemings measured in at the NBA combine at 6’2.5 barefoot and 183 pounds at the NBA Draft Combine. Just being a small guard doesn’t automatically rule him out as a candidate for NBA stardom. Even his 6’3.5 wingspan isn’t a disqualifer for the star upside that the Hawks are betting on.
For some reference, there are several players with All-Star or All-NBA upside that were drafted in recent years and compare to Flemings’ measurements. The high end of those comparisons include Chris Paul and Jalen Brunson, but it’s possible that Flemings ends up hovering somewhere around the level of players like Kyle Lowry and Payton Pritchard. Even if the floor “falls out” and Flemings isn’t able to adjust his game to the NBA’s size and pace, there’s a chance he could carve out a career in the TJ McConnell mold as a defensive pest who can also swing playoff games in limited minutes.
Simpy put, saying that Flemings won’t work in the NBA because he’s too small is a flawed way to look at his testing numbers.
However, it does mean that the Hawks – and Hawks fans – should make sure that their expectations for Flemings do not exceed the realm of reason. On average, small guards do take time to adjust to the NBA even by usual rookie standards. The biggest gap between college and the NBA for Flemings is going to come on defense. While I believe the Hawks will be a great offensive environment for him to thrive and tap into the sky-high potential he has, he probably won’t be an elite defender until later in his career based on the development curve for players in his mold.
Fast, Faster, Flemings
Kingston Flemings is a streak of lightning on the court.
While that’s expected from a smaller player, Flemings had an elite shuttle time of 2.69 seconds. He led the entire draft class with that mark and it shows up in his game. Flemings can turn that breakaway speed into some incredibly athletic finishes at the rim and he even threw down 11 dunks last season. That’s more than Keaton Wagler, who stands at 6’5 barefoot and the 2nd overall pick, Darryn Peterson. Even though he’s a smaller player, it’s hard to see that on offense.
Smaller players sometimes have trouble with playmaking due to bigger defenders overwhelming them and cutting off passing lanes. That isn’t an issue for Flemings. He had an impressive AST% of 32.6% (83rd percentile for his position) as a true freshman while sporting a ridiculous AST/TO ratio of 2.9. That’s in the 92nd percentile for all guards in college basketball and it means that Flemings essentially produced three assists for every turnover.
The offensive system at Houston also did him no favors. They had a team 3P% of 34.7% per Bartovik, which ranked 131st in the country, and a 3P rate of 40.7% (153rd). Houston wasn’t especially efficient inside the arc, either. They shot 51.7% on two-pointers, which was the 177th-best mark in the nation. Despite a clogged halfcourt offense, Flemings made it work as a true freshman.
He helped Houston achieve a team TOV% of 12.8%, which was the fourth-best mark in the country. For his own game, he attempted 10.5 midrange shots per 100 possessions (93rd percentile) and made 44.3% of them (84th percentile). That’s an extraordinarily tough shot diet to maintain at the next level, but it speaks to how he was able to find success on offense despite the lack of a favorable situation.
The Hawks already signed CJ McCollum in anticipation of Flemings taking some time to adjust to an NBA offense. Even so, there aren’t many indicators to suggest it’ll take him a while to figure it out. The only concerning part about his offensive profile is that he shot just 57.2% at the rim (34th percentile). However, that’s also partially attributed to the amount of attempts he got at the basket (9.0 attempts per 100 possessions – 86th percentile among all guards). He struggled to be efficient on a high amount of attempts, but he showed that he can get there despite being undersized at the NBA level. That bodes well for his future upside.
Defense To Be Determined
Given his measurements and position, it will likely take Flemings 1-2 seasons to become a standout defender at the NBA level.
He’s a bit taller than some of these players, but there’s very few players that have had a positive on-off swing in their first two seasons at his age and size. Outside of Jalen Brunson, Chris Paul and De’Aaron Fox, all of these players had a negative net rating in their first two seasons. It’s gone far worse for players like Reed Sheppard, who compare physically to Flemings. He was almost unplayable during his rookie season due to his defense. Fortunately, he’s taken significant steps forward on that end.
Flemings is basically the same size as Sheppard, but Sheppard produced more steals (4.6) per game than Flemings (2.9) per 100 possessions with the same block numbers. Flemings, however, is a very smart defender and took on the toughest matchups all season long for one of the best defenses in the country. The Hawks will have to hope that experience makes the difference.
Fortunately, Atlanta will have one of the best guard defenders in the NBA playing next to him in Dyson Daniels. There’s little pressure on Flemings to start right away and when he does, he won’t always be playing a starter workload due to the options Atlanta has in the backcourt. Sheppard was taken with the third overall pick, so the expectations were always going to be higher from the start.
Flemings doesn’t really need to be an elite defender in order to justify this selection. However, the Hawks need to tap into the special processing and lightning speed combined with a penchant for tough shot-making inside the arc that Flemings brings. The best way to do that is to adjust expectations more towards the offensive end rather than expecting him to turn around Atlanta’s perimeter defense.
The criticisms of Flemings’ size are somewhat valid on defense. That being said, reducing his entire career projection to the defender he’ll be in his first two seasons is unfair. There’s every reason that Flemings will eventually learn to work around the limitations that his height poses on defense because there frankly aren’t many on offense.
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