Virginia went to Winston-Salem on Saturday as a 12.5-point underdog, its biggest of the season, against a Wake Forest team that was 6-1, ranked No. 14 and coming off a bye. This was the same Wake Forest that was picked to finish 13th in the ACC’s preseason media poll. The ‘Hoos, meanwhile, were missing even more of their two-deep than usual. Leading rusher Jekail Middlebrook and fellow running back Noah Vaughn were ruled out, Rico Flores Jr. had season-ending surgery, Kameron Courtney was out with a high ankle sprain and all three of Brandyn Hillman, Ethan Minter and Corey Costner were still out at safety.
A game that had the potential to get ugly did so early. Wake Forest scored on each of its first nine possessions, led 20-0 at halftime and 44-0 late in the third quarter. Virginia’s only touchdown, a 47-yard pass from Beau Pribula to Da’Shawn Martin with 50 seconds left in the third, kept the ‘Hoos from being shut out for the first time since 2017. Wake outgained Virginia 538-330 and outrushed it 309-16.
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The 51-7 final drops Virginia to 4-5 (2-4 ACC) with three straight losses, and the 44-point margin is the largest of the Tony Elliott era. The ‘Hoos now have a bye before closing with California, North Carolina and Virginia Tech.
Here are five takeaways from the loss.
As I mentioned earlier, this was a team that was picked in the preseason to finish 13th in the ACC, and by most estimates it has one of the lowest NIL budgets in the league. As opposed to Virginia’s miracle 2025 season, which followed an influx of investment in the program and relied on multiple last-second victories, Wake Forest has won its last four games by a combined 187-31. It looked every bit the No. 14 team in the country early in this game.
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Jake Dickert, the Wake Forest head coach and one of the hottest coaching names in the country right now, had two weeks to prepare for this game, and it showed from the first snap. Wake’s first four possessions covered 250 yards and produced two touchdowns and two field goals. Its offense found answers for everything Virginia showed. Wake went 9-for-14 on third down and ran the ball 51 times for a season-high 309 yards and looked like the far more physical and aggressive team from the jump. Quarterback Gio Lopez’s offensive coordinator, Rob Ezell, coached him at South Alabama, and the chemistry the two had was clear to see and a stark contrast to the Virginia offense.
Virginia’s plan didn’t survive the opening drive, a three-and-out from a script that has usually been the best stretch of this offense. Virginia’s two best first-half drives ended with an interception on fourth down and a turnover on downs at the Wake 6. The turnover on downs was a direct snap on fourth-and-1 from the Wake 6. That play has been Virginia’s most reliable short-yardage call all season, but it has been reliable because Middlebrook was taking the snap. With Xay Davis in his place, it was stuffed for no gain. On another drive, Des Kitchings left tight end Dakota Twitty one-on-one with Langston Hardy, Wake’s best pass rusher, and the result was a holding call that wiped out a gain and set Virginia behind the chains, a death sentence for this offense. Virginia went 1-for-12 on third down and 3-for-7 on fourth.
Even special teams fit the pattern. Elliott joked this week that Daniel Sparks kicks the ball so far the coverage team gets outkicked by about 20 yards, and acknowledged Virginia ranks last in the country in return yards allowed. On Saturday, Kam Shanks returned two punts for 94 yards, including a 64-yarder that turned a 60-yard Sparks punt into a net of negative-4 and set up a two-play, 14-yard touchdown drive. Personally, I believe that is simply a lack of execution. When one of your few consistently good players in Sparks is playing well, I don’t think you try to rein in what makes him special.
During the first half, Elliott’s message in his sideline interview was simple: “Just got to execute.” It was the same thing he said at his Tuesday press conference, when he also said he sees no lack of effort from his players. I believe Elliott believes that, but Saturday was hard to watch. By the second half, heads were down. Wake’s backup quarterback pushed the pile five yards on a fourth-and-1 sneak, and Kyndall McCaleb broke multiple tackles on a 27-yard touchdown run to make it 51-7. One team was playing with passion, and the other one wasn’t.
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Virginia is 4-5 and needs two wins in its final three games to get to six. Those games are California and North Carolina at home and Virginia Tech on the road. After the last month, I’m not sure where the next win comes from.
The offense is the reason. Before Martin’s touchdown, Virginia had gone almost six full quarters without a touchdown, dating to the first quarter against Duke, and it has scored three offensive touchdowns in its last 12 quarters. It has gone 1-for-12 and 5-for-17 on third down in its last two games and is converting 30% of its third downs on the season after converting nearly half of them a year ago. On Saturday, Virginia ran 19 times for 16 yards. Its running backs carried 10 times for 15.
The record away from Scott Stadium is now 0-4, and those four losses have come by a combined 96 points. Virginia does not have to win on the road to reach a bowl, but it does have to win twice with an offense that has scored just 36 points in its last three games.
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The fair counterweight is that the path exists. Both Cal and North Carolina come to Charlottesville, where Virginia is 4-1. Cal entered the weekend 3-5 and had given up 100 points in its previous two games, including a 41-7 loss to this same Wake Forest team. Elliott said this week he expects most of his injured players back after the bye. But this was a team picked sixth in the ACC coming off a program-record 11 wins, and it now needs a strong finish just to make a bowl.
Pribula finished 20-of-29 for 212 yards, a touchdown and an interception, but in my opinion, the numbers flatter him. The interception came on fourth down in Wake territory. On the next drive, he had a receiver wide open, held the ball and took a sack. On third down a few plays later, he threw the ball into the dirt. The touchdown to Martin came with Virginia down 44-0. In seven games against Power Four opponents this season, he is now 103-of-170 for 1,146 yards, with just seven touchdowns, at 6.7 yards per attempt.
Holstein finally came in with about nine minutes left, his first pass attempts since the Delaware game five weeks ago. He completed his first seven passes, spreading the ball to Jacquon Gibson, Davis, Jack Rhodes, Isaiah Robinson and Twitty, and drove Virginia to the Wake 5 before a fourth-down incompletion. He finished 12-of-16 for 102 yards. He looked comfortable, got the ball out on time and escaped pressure to find his checkdowns.
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Was he perfect? Obviously not. But the offense looked like it had life with Holstein in the game. Not counting a one-play kneel before halftime, Pribula’s eight possessions gained 229 yards, 28.6 per drive, at 5.2 yards per play. Holstein’s two gained 117 yards, 58.5 per drive, at 6.2 yards per play. His first drive went 76 yards in 10 plays, and his second went 41 yards in 1:48 before a sack and fumble ended the game. In the third quarter, Pribula’s drives at 23-0, 30-0 and 37-0 went for minus-7, 24 and 5 yards.
Yes, Holstein’s snaps came with Wake up by 44. But so did Pribula’s touchdown drive, and the difference between the two quarterbacks still wasn’t close. Pribula has thrown three touchdown passes in five games since the calendar turned to October. This simply isn’t a tenable position to be putting the offense in game after game.
Elliott said Tuesday, “I don’t know if putting another quarterback in there solves your problems,” but he also said Holstein has been doing well in practice and has earned playing time. While I agree that the issues with the 2026 Virginia Cavaliers extend far beyond the quarterback, I believe a change at quarterback would give the offense a better shot to win.
Holstein went 7-3 as a starter at Pitt in 2024 and has another year of eligibility after this one, so three starts down the stretch would double as an audition for 2027. The bye week is the natural time to make the switch.
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The one sustained bright spot on offense was Martin. The Kent State transfer caught nine passes for 119 yards and a touchdown, the most receiving yards by a Virginia player in a game this season, topping Flores’ 113 against Delaware. He accounted for 119 of Virginia’s 314 passing yards.
His 47-yard touchdown came on a pass over the middle late in the third quarter, the longest play of the day for the ‘Hoos, and it was the only thing that kept Virginia off the wrong side of a shutout. He also made a nice catch on the first play of a late first-quarter drive and was targeted on a deep ball in the second half that was broken up.
This is the role Virginia needed someone to fill. Flores, the UCLA transfer who was supposed to be the No. 1 receiver, is out for the season after knee surgery. Courtney missed his third straight game. John Rogers, who led Virginia in receiving against Duke, went down after taking a big hit on a hospital pass in the second quarter. With those three unavailable, Martin was the one target Pribula could consistently find. He now has six touchdown catches this season, the most on the team, and whoever is playing quarterback over the final three games should be looking his way early and often.
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Jacquon Gibson also deserves a mention. He caught four passes for 59 yards, including a 35-yarder on a good route in the second quarter, one of the few downfield chunk plays Virginia has generated in weeks, and was Holstein’s first target toward the end of the game.
The Virginia defense came in leading the ACC in pass efficiency defense and allowed 538 yards. There wasn’t much to praise, but Fobbs-White was the exception.
In the second quarter, he got a quick win off the edge and sacked Lopez. On the same drive, his pressure forced Lopez to throw the ball away. The broadcast showed him with a 19% pressure rate entering the game, the highest in the ACC, and he came in leading the team with seven tackles for loss. His box score line, one tackle and a sack, doesn’t capture how often he was the only Virginia defender in the backfield. Kam Robinson had the ‘Hoos’ other sack.
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Fobbs-White is one of the few Virginia players who has played at an elite level all season, along with Sparks and right tackle Monroe Mills, whom PFF ranked this week as the No. 1 offensive lineman in college football so far this season.
Late in the third quarter, Fobbs-White’s hit on Lopez drew a roughing-the-passer flag. Lopez left with a right knee injury and did not return. Wake didn’t slow down. Backup Steele Pizzella handed off on the next play, and Jamar Searcy went 7 yards for a touchdown.
The rest of the defense was overwhelmed. Wake had five rushing touchdowns, Jamar Searcy ripped off a 55-yard run and Ty Clark III ran for three scores. It says something that Virginia’s leading tackler was safety Montino Williams, with 10. When a safety is making that many tackles, it speaks to the lack of effectiveness of the front seven.
None of this excuses a 44-point loss, but the injury list matters going forward.
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Middlebrook, coming off a career-high 117 yards against Duke, was out, as was Vaughn. Solomon Beebe led Virginia in rushing with nine yards on three carries. Flores is done for the season, Courtney is still out with a high ankle sprain and Rogers went down in the second quarter.
On defense, Virginia was without cornerback Omillio Agard, who was the highest-graded cornerback in the ACC by Pro Football Network (92.1) before his season-ending ACL tear, and all three of Hillman, Minter and Costner at safety. Linebacker Caleb Hardy was out with a re-aggravated hamstring, and defensive tackle Jason Hammond (season-ending elbow surgery) and defensive end Devon Baxter (shoulder surgery) remain out. That leaves Virginia with very little depth in a secondary that was the strength of this team a month ago.
Virginia has a bye on Nov. 7 before hosting California on Nov. 14, then North Carolina on Nov. 21 before closing at Virginia Tech on Nov. 28. At 4-5, the ‘Hoos need two of those three to reach a bowl. The bye gives Elliott two weeks to get healthy, to fix a punt coverage unit that keeps giving back what Sparks gains and to make a decision at quarterback. After Saturday, standing pat would be the most conservative call of a season full of them.
