The NFL‘s first week gave fantasy football managers plenty to overreact to. We knew some relatively obscure players would explode in their season debuts and other big names would barely show up. The goal for Week 2’s Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em is figuring out which performances matter and which matchups can push a borderline starter into or out of a lineup.
The fantasy points allowed (FPA) numbers below use PPR scoring and are a 70/30 blend of 2025 results and Week 1 performance. As more games are played, we’ll have a better baseline for judging between a good and bad matchup. FPA rankings run from first (fewest FPA at that position) to 32nd (most).
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As always, these calls are meant for players near the edge of your lineup. Nobody needs to bench a superstar because of one difficult matchup.
MORE: Fantasy football waiver wire FAAB Week 2: Tyler Shough, Bryce Young lead QB adds
Don’t go chasing Week 1, please stick to the rivers and the lakes that you’re used to. Week 1 gives us useful information, but one game is still one game.
The best approach is to combine what happened with what we already knew. A player who earned a strong workload deserves more confidence. A player who scored on one long play might not. Matchups can help break those ties.
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That is where FPA becomes useful. It should not replace talent, role or volume. It can help when choosing between two players in the same range.
This week’s starts generally draw defenses near the bottom of the positional rankings. The sits face teams closer to the top.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray (1) throws a pass during a preseason opening game against the New York Giants. Credit: USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
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Week 2: at Chicago Bears, 23.9 FPA to QBs (31st)
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Week 1: vs. Green Bay Packers, 3-of-5 passing for 18 yards, 1 INT; two carries for nine yards
An obvious condition is attached here. Murray must clear concussion protocol before he can be trusted in any fantasy lineup. Should Murray be held out, Wentz won’t miss a beat and I’d be comfortable ranking him around QB15 in Week 2.
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Murray’s Minnesota debut lasted less than a quarter after a hit knocked him out against Green Bay. Murray completed three of five passes for 18 yards with an interception and added nine rushing yards before leaving. Carson Wentz took over and eventually led Minnesota to a 39-22 comeback win.
Chicago ranks 31st in our blended FPA to quarterbacks, meaning only one defense has been more generous.
Murray’s rushing ability also helps. Fantasy managers obviously need to follow his status throughout the week, but a healthy Murray belongs back in the starting conversation.
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett (7) drops back to pass during the game against the Las Vegas Raiders. Mandatory Credit: David Brytus-Imagn Images
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Week 2: vs. Seattle Seahawks, 13.9 FPA to QBs (1st)
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Week 1: at Los Angeles Chargers, 27-of-37 passing for 277 yards, 1 TD; six carries for 14 yards
Brissett played well enough in Arizona’s opener to make this call uncomfortable. He completed 27 of 37 passes for 277 yards and a touchdown while helping the Cardinals beat the Chargers 26-14. He also avoided throwing an interception.
That is exactly why this is a matchup sit instead of a reaction to bad quarterback play.
Seattle ranks first in blended FPA to quarterbacks. The Seahawks are allowing 13.9 points per game to the position by this measure, the toughest number on the board.
Brissett remains useful in two-quarterback and superflex leagues, but managers with comparable options should not chase his strong opener into a much more difficult Week 2 matchup.
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San Francisco 49ers running back Kaelon Black (26) rushes the ball against the Los Angeles Rams in the second half at Melbourne Cricket Ground. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
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Week 2: vs. Miami Dolphins, 27.0 FPA to RBs (29th)
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Week 1: at Los Angeles Rams, 14 carries for 65 yards; one catch for five yards
Do I believe Black is the new 49ers RB1? No. This is a matchup play. The Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL. I’m letting you know now. It’s not Cleveland or Tennessee. It’s Miami. So with that in mind, even the firmest Christian McCaffrey superfan (also me) will acknowledge the Niners will take it easy on him in the second half of this Week 2 matchup. Black will be called up in relief for another sizable workload.
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The rookie carried the ball 14 times for 65 yards against the Rams and added a five-yard reception. Christian McCaffrey had only 10 rushing attempts, although he remained heavily involved as a receiver. Black finished with 15 touches in his NFL debut.
That is enough work to make him interesting against Miami.
The Dolphins rank 29th against running backs in blended FPA. Only three teams have surrendered more. San Francisco should also have opportunities to run throughout the game, which gives Black a realistic path to another double-digit carry total.
He is not suddenly an every-week starter, but this is the type of matchup where a secondary back can become a useful flex if game script works in his favor.
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Chicago Bears running back Kyle Monangai (25) runs with the ball in the second half against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
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Week 2: vs. Minnesota Vikings, 16.1 FPA to RBs (1st)
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Week 1: at Carolina Panthers, 10 carries for 100 yards and one touchdown
This is the definition of not chasing last week’s box score. That said, the Bears looked excellent and Monangai may never sniff another sit ’em this season.
Monangai needed only 10 carries to reach 100 yards against Carolina, with a 61-yard touchdown doing most of the damage. Chicago scored 59 points, while D’Andre Swift added 124 yards and three touchdowns on 18 attempts.
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The production was real. The situation changes considerably in Week 2.
Minnesota ranks first in blended FPA to running backs at only 16.1 per game. Monangai also remains the second option behind Swift, meaning his volume can disappear quickly if he does not break another long run.
He is a strong bench stash, but expecting another 100-yard afternoon on limited touches is asking too much.
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir (10) runs the ball during the second quarter against the Houston Texans. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
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Week 2: vs. Detroit Lions, 42.2 FPA to WRs (32nd)
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Week 1: at Houston Texans, four catches for 50 yards on six targets
Shakir had a quiet but respectable opener. He caught four of six targets for 50 yards in Buffalo’s 36-31 win over Houston.
The bigger concern was playing time. Shakir logged only 30 of Buffalo’s 57 offensive snaps, while Dalton Kincaid became a major part of the passing game.
Week 2 is where the matchup can cover some of those concerns.
Detroit ranks 32nd against wide receivers in the blended FPA data at 42.2 per game. No defense offers a better matchup by that measure.
Buffalo also has enough offensive firepower to create multiple scoring opportunities. Shakir remains more flex than locked-in WR2, but this is exactly the type of matchup where six targets can turn into a much better fantasy day.
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Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (7) reacts to his reception during the first quarter of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium. Credit: USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
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Week 2: at Denver Broncos, 27.4 FPA to WRs (5th)
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Week 1: vs. Cleveland Browns, three catches for 40 yards on three targets
Thomas caught all three of his targets for 40 yards against Cleveland before hurting his shoulder while diving for a fumble. He returned later, but Jacksonville had already taken control, and Thomas did not see another target.
A few concerns enter Week 2.
First, his health deserves monitoring after the shoulder issue. Second, Denver ranks fifth in blended FPA to wide receivers. Next, it seems Thomas is now the third WR on this team behind some combination of Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington.
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Thomas also entered the year trying to rebound from a disappointing 2025 season. One abbreviated Week 1 performance does not tell us everything, but between his role, health and a difficult road matchup, Thomas is someone I’d rather leave on the bench when a reasonable alternative is available. BTJ is trending toward a season-long sit ’em at this rate.
Cleveland Browns tight end Harold Fannin Jr. (44) scores a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
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Week 2: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 18.7 FPA to TEs (32nd)
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Week 1: at Jacksonville Jaguars, two catches for 21 yards
Almost nothing went right for Cleveland in its 34-10 loss to Jacksonville, and Fannin was part of the quiet afternoon. He finished with only two receptions for 21 yards.
That should not erase what made him appealing entering the season.
Fannin caught 72 passes for 731 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie, and David Njoku‘s departure left him as Cleveland’s clear top receiving tight end.
Now he gets the best matchup in the blended tight end data. Tampa Bay ranks 32nd at 18.7 FPA to the position.
Cleveland’s offense certainly carries risk, but Fannin has the role and matchup to rebound. At a thin fantasy position, that is enough to keep him in starting lineups.
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New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (83) is tackled by Detroit Lions free safety Avonte Maddox (29). Credit: USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
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Week 2: at Baltimore Ravens, 10.8 FPA to TEs (6th)
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Week 1: at Detroit Lions, three catches for 54 yards and one touchdown on seven targets
Johnson rewarded anyone who started him in Week 1.
He caught three of seven targets for 54 yards and scored a nine-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter as New Orleans pushed Detroit to overtime.
The seven targets are encouraging. The Week 2 matchup is not.
Baltimore ranks sixth in blended FPA to tight ends at 10.8 per game. Johnson also has plenty of competition for targets after Chris Olave commanded 13 looks against Detroit, while Noah Fant drew eight and scored a touchdown of his own.
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Johnson remains a reasonable season-long option, but fantasy managers should not assume one touchdown makes him an automatic weekly starter. This is a tougher matchup and a good spot to consider another TE1-range option.
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