In fantasy football, you have to look back to move forward. Fantasy points are the goal, but how a player gets there is the key. Analyst Joel Smyth breaks down 10 numbers to know from Week 3 in order to win your matchup in Week 4 and beyond.
91.3%
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Of the Arizona carries for Jeremiyah Love, the third-highest percentage on the week for the rookie’s third career game. Love had 21 carries after averaging 10 the first two weeks. Mike LaFleur has said he’ll go with the hot hand in the past, but Tyler Allgeier was held to just two carries on the day, making it hard to believe it’ll be close to a 50/50 split going forward for the top-five NFL Draft pick. The receiving would be the next step of the breakout, with Love still splitting passing-game work down the middle against the 49ers. Love did have a nice five receptions; it just came on five targets out of 52 passing attempts. If this workload sticks, he’ll be posting RB1 numbers in his good matchups, and still RB2 numbers in the tough matchups Arizona has coming up.
89%
George Kittle‘s route share after Week 3 as he’s back to full-go for the first time this season. With Mike Evans, De’Zhaun Stribling, Demarcus Robinson, Christian Kirk, Ricky Pearsall, and Jake Tonges all injured, there aren’t many other options. After Evans left the game on Sunday, Kittle had five of the remaining 10 targets, ending his day with six receptions, 82 yards and two touchdowns. With Deebo Samuel Sr. playing more of a gadget WR role, he shouldn’t eat too much into the vast amount of targets available (zero targets on Sunday). He may not be at full strength, but Kittle has always been the No. 1 TE in efficiency. The volume bump can make up for it.
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97.1%
Of Buffalo’s RB carries this season have gone to James Cook III, the highest rate in the NFL. Not Kenneth Walker, not Bijan Robinson, not Jahmyr Gibbs, but Cook. I get it’s frustrating to see Josh Allen take goal-line attempts; however, Cook is, in fact, getting a higher percentage of them this season at 44% compared to 39% in 2025. He was still dominant last season. One area he hasn’t capitalized on (yet) is the explosive touchdown runs. Is he failing to create explosive plays like last season? No, he’s actually doing it at a higher rate with four explosive runs (20+ yards) resulting in zero touchdowns. Last season, he had nine the entire season, with five going for scores. Cook has great numbers in two of three games and the best is yet to come.
2
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The number of carries for Jadarian Price after his first-quarter fumble, as well as the number of fumbles he has had through his first three weeks. For Price to excel in fantasy, he has to be near perfect in Seattle. The Seahawks have no issue limiting their top RB in the regular season — as we saw last season with Walker — and as a rookie, Price has an uphill battle after starting the season in a limited role. If you have better or equal options, I’d prefer waiting on Price’s role to develop, if it ever does. With Zach Charbonnet returning at some point, the rookie needs to establish trust and a larger role to be an impact player come the fantasy playoffs.
<5
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Air yards on every Malik Nabers reception in Jameis Winston‘s first start. This does not seem to be the same Winston who thrived as a backup for fantasy in Cleveland in 2024. With 26 dropbacks in Week 3, Winston was held to four passing attempts that traveled 10+ yards downfield. Everything was short and on the ground as the Giants toughed out a victory versus Tennessee with four field goals. Nabers, in particular, saw nearly every target in the short passing attack, with all of his receptions being on screens or throws of five or fewer air yards. The way to combat a struggling offense in fantasy is high volume and big play opportunities; Nabers doesn’t look to have either. Hopefully a QB change will happen in the coming weeks.
91%
Of the Pittsburgh RB touches went to Jaylen Warren, the highest on the week. With Rico Dowdle sidelined, Warren was the most relied-on back in the NFL. His big fantasy day should’ve been much bigger. In the fourth quarter, Warren broke one for an 87-yard carry that was called back due to a DK Metcalf hold, while on another play he broke through with nothing but green grass ahead, but got tackled by the turf monster five yards before the end zone. He looked incredible and proved why he can be the team’s 1A RB going forward. If Dowdle is out another game, the workhorse volume makes Warren an easy start.
3/15
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Plays from inside the five-yard line this season that Carolina has run the ball. Last season, the Panthers were pass-heavy in the red zone and near the goal line, but this rate is ridiculous. The rest of the league runs 60% of the time, not 20%. Chuba Hubbard does get involved in the passing game, thankfully, already scoring multiple receiving touchdowns inside the five, but would still be better off with usage closer to 2024, when he led all running backs in goal-line attempts per game. For the receivers and Bryce Young, it’s a huge bump that has yet to pay off, as both passing touchdowns on those 12 plays were to Hubbard. Jalen Coker, Tetairoa McMillan and the TEs should have more touchdown opportunities that hit with how pass-heavy the Panthers have been deep in the red zone.
133
The amount of times the Texans have dropped back to pass this season, the second-highest in the NFL. Houston was a shock for me when I was checking the numbers, with only New Orleans dropping back to pass more. This is all without Nico Collins, with the addition of David Montgomery and having a top defense. Establishing the run has been a myth to the Texans these last two weeks as they’ve abandoned the run game fast. For Montgomery, it’s been terrible news, as splitting time with Woody Marks has become even more of a limitation. Montgomery either needs to take a much higher share of the volume, starting with the easy one-yard touchdowns that went to Marks on Sunday, or Houston needs to rework its identity fast.
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23
Snaps for both Brian Thomas Jr. and Josh Cameron. Rough. The horrible matchups for Thomas early on in the season is one thing, but now he has been demoted to a WR3 role behind both Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers. Thomas isn’t playing in 2-WR sets and ran 15 routes to Washington’s 30. The Jacksonville wideout will now line up on the outside versus DJ Turner half the time in Week 4, Quinyon Mitchell in Week 5 and Derek Stingley Jr. in Week 6 before the bye week. It’s hard to find a spot with potential until Week 8 versus Indianapolis.
39%
Target share for Jordan Addison after Justin Jefferson left Sunday’s game early. It was Kyler Murray‘s first full game with Minnesota, and Addison became his go-to receiver after Jefferson left in the first quarter due to an ankle injury. Addison was great in fantasy with Carson Wentz under center last season, averaging WR2 fantasy numbers with Jefferson healthy. Addison’s money is made on the downfield throws, which was a worry with Murray at QB. After Game 1, it wasn’t an issue, turning six downfield targets (10+ air yards) into 81 yards and a TD. The Minnesota passing offense is a dangerous one to be a part of as a WR2, and with Addison being promoted to WR1, he’s a great start if Jefferson ends up missing time.
