We’re close to the halfway point of the fantasy baseball season, meaning we’re dealing with a larger sample to digest. We discussed several multi-category players in last week’s hitter skill and luck factor article. This week, we’re examining a mixture of veterans with a lengthy track record. Have their skills changed? Or have they been unfortunate this season, leading to us trusting the larger sample?
If we said the Cardinals would rank inside the top 12 in wRC+ (103) before the season, we probably would’ve wanted to invest more into their lineup. Alec Burleson is a key, steady part of the Cardinals’ lineup, batting in the top third. He has been showing consistent skill and production.
Burleson’s plate discipline looks similar to previous seasons, with an 81.2% contact rate and a 9.3% swinging-strike rate. Both have been within 1-2 percentage points of his career averages. The main skill change involves Burleson’s batted ball approach, pulling the ball more (49.8%), 11 percentage points above his career average. Specifically, Burleson is pulling the ball into the air, with an 19.1% pulled air rate, over five points higher than in 2025.
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That coincides with Burleson barreling up the ball more consistently, with an 8.7% barrel rate per plate appearance, one point higher than his 2025 numbers (7.3%). When he pulls the ball into the air, Burleson’s barrel rate spikes to 31% with nine of his 13 home runs coming on balls pulled into the air. That aligns with the projections expecting a career-best home run total of 25+ this season.
Burleson continues to be undervalued as a four-category contributor with more power upside than expected. Go buy high on Burleson if you need some offensive help.
Michael Harris II often batted toward the bottom third of the Braves’ lineup. Around late-April and into the middle of May, Harris moved more into the middle of the lineup. However, since May 29, Harris has hit first or second in every game. The .339 BABIP is fueling his .306 batting average. However, Harris can run higher BABIPs, as seen in previous seasons.
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For most of Harris’ career, the launch angle has been an issue, evidenced by a career groundball rate at 49.2% and a single-digit launch angle (7.4 degrees). This season, Harris is hitting more flyballs (38.5%), up seven points from his career average. That’s also led to a four-degree increase in his launch angle (11.5 degrees).
Unsurprisingly, Harris’ 11.2% barrel rate this season is up over three percentage points from the career norm. However, Harris’s swing tilt stayed the same, so hitting more flyballs could be something fluky that could regress. The swing tilt is the input, while the launch angle is somewhat of the outcome based on the swing tilt and swing path. Sometimes a hitter’s approach against different pitch types can also increase launch angles. For instance, his launch angle on breaking pitches (23 degrees) is up from 15 degrees (2025). There’s a slight increase in Harris’ launch angle against fastballs this season (8 degrees), up three points.
The visual below shows hitters with a three-point increase in launch angle and a two-point increase in barrel rate per plate appearance (Barrel/PA).
Harris is on the short list of players with a three-point increase in their launch angle and two-point jump in barrel rate per plate appearance this season. That list includes Drake Baldwin, Elly De La Cruz, Xavier Edwards, Shea Langeliers, Luke Raley, James Wood and Jacob Young. Harris is elevating the ball and hitting them harder, an optimal combination. It’s a minor note, but Harris is also tweaking with his batting stance, being 26 degrees open after 18 degrees open (2025) and 11 degrees open (career). Theoretically, Harris’ more open stance might allow him to hit different pitch types into the air more often.
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Interestingly, Harris’ stolen bases have been somewhat nonexistent. Harris has a 6% stolen base opportunity rate, three times worse than his career average (18%). For context, Harris stole 20 bases in seasons where his stolen base opportunity rate was at 20% or higher. The projection systems seem to be optimistic on his stolen bases, so there’s a good chance he finishes with 28-30 home runs and 12-15 stolen bases after being more around 20/20.
With Ronald Acuña Jr. sidelined with another hamstring injury this season, Harris could soak up counting stats in the leadoff role for a while. There’s an estimated timeline for Acuña to return in late June, but the Braves could be cautious after he already suffered two hamstring injuries this season. At worst, Harris moves back into the middle of the order, instead of the bottom third like in the previous seasons.
I would be buying into these launch angle changes for Harris since he already showed high-end power inputs (bat speed and exit velocity). Just be sure Harris is healthy, he’s been dealing with a back injury that forced him to exit Tuesday and was out of the lineup Wednesday.
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The Mets have surprisingly been third-worst in wRC+ (89), ahead of the Phillies and Padres. Injuries and struggles have been the themes for the Mets. They have Jorge Polanco, Francisco Lindor, Ronny Mauricio, Luis Robert Jr. and Tyrone Taylor on the injured list. Bo Bichette had a bounce-back season with the Blue Jays last year. When Bichette’s BABIP is high, his batting average tends to be higher.
Bichette has a career-low BABIP (.285) aligning with his .254 batting average being significantly below his career norm (.290 BA). Sometimes line drive rate can boost BABIP. Unfortunately, Bichette’s 18.6% line drive rate is a career low, over three points below his career average. He is making more contact this season, with a 84.3% contact rate, over three points above his career norm. Meanwhile, Bichette’s 8.3% swinging-strike rate and 53.4% swing rate have fallen by 1-2 percentage points from his career averages, suggesting that he is being more selective.
Most of Bichette’s power skill metrics have been stable with a 5.6% barrel rate per plate appearance similar to his career average (6.5%). We could speculate on what the power metrics would look like if Bichette attempted to pull the ball more, though that would significantly change his approach. The projection systems expect 20 home runs and Bichette’s batting average to regress.
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Bichette doesn’t seem to have the per-plate appearance upside, as he thrives on volume for counting stats. He is more valuable in deeper rotisserie leagues than head-to-head formats. It might be worth seeing what you could net in return for Bichette based on name value. A repeat of 2025 looks likely if we bake in a lower batting average.
Christian Yelich felt like an undervalued hitter after hitting 29 home runs and stealing 16 bases. That reminded us of what a peak Yelich season looks like when healthy. Yelich’s 69.9% contact rate is the lowest since 2020 and over seven points below his career average. He is swinging and missing more, given his 13.6% swinging-strike rate this season, nearly four points above his career norm. Those metrics typically have an inverse relationship, making sense to see Yelich’s lower contact rate and higher whiff rate.
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The visual below shows the hitters with a three-point drop in their average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives this season compared to 2025.
Groundballs and launch angles have been problematic for Yelich throughout his career. Yelich has a 56.4% groundball rate this season, similar to his career average (55.9%). When hitters hit the ball into the ground often, we want them to crush flyballs and line drives. Yelich rocked a 96.5 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (FB/LD) in 2025, ranking 23rd. Unfortunately, Yelich’s EV on FB/LD fell to a concerning 90.3 mph (No. 222 out of 254 qualified hitters) this year.
That further aligns with Yelich’s 4.4% barrel rate per plate appearance, being significantly lower than his career norm (6.2%). Based on Yelich’s track record, we should expect those numbers to regress, though age and previous injuries might cloud our judgement. The projections suggest Yelich should reach 15 home runs, but that’s probably not what fantasy managers expected.
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From a speed standpoint, Yelich has converted 100% of his stolen base chances while having a 10% stolen base opportunity rate. Yelich’s stolen base opportunity has fluctuated throughout his career with 13% in 2025, 22% in 2024 and a career average of 13%. His sprint speed took a bit of a hit this season, ranking in the 44th percentile after a 71st percentile (2025) or higher in recent seasons. He might need to be smarter on the bases if there’s a speed decline. There’s a good chance that Yelich matches his stolen base total from 2025.
Maybe it was unrealistic to expect Yelich to be a 30/15 performer, with 25 home runs being probable. The projections expect a 15/15 type player, which can be more replaceable on waivers. Like Bichette, we can’t blame fantasy managers for shopping Yelich around based on name value.
However, the difference between Yelich and Bichette involves Yelich flashing more upside recently, making him somewhat of a buy-low candidate. I would be buying low on Yelich.
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Fantasy managers drafted Eugenio Suárez for power after hitting 49 home runs in 2025, though 36 of them came while playing with the Diamondbacks. Besides Suárez’s oblique injury, it’s fair to say he is underperforming expectations, with seven home runs and a .212 batting average. He hit two in one game against the Mets earlier in the week. Suárez has been struggling to make contact (67.9%) while whiffing often (15% swinging-strike rate). For context, Suárez’s contact rate is five percentage points below with the swinging-strike rate three points higher than his career norm.
Thankfully, Suárez makes up for his plate discipline struggles with hitting the ball hard. It might be fluky, but Suárez is pulling the ball (41.8%) less often while hitting significantly fewer flyballs (39.1%) this season. He has a 46.4% pull rate and a 42.4% flyball rate throughout his career. Unsurprisingly, pulling the ball less often into the air, aligns with his worst barrel rate per plate appearance (4.8%) since 2017. Hopefully, Suárez’s oblique injury isn’t lingering around, because that would impact him as a power hitter in a sport that relies on core strength and rotational movements.
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The projections expect Suárez to post 25 home runs with a .220-.230 batting average. That’s similar to Suárez’s last full season in Seattle in 2023. The underlying metrics for Suárez look worrisome, so I would be cautious on buying low if fantasy managers expect over 30 home runs.
