As much as Iowa Hawkeyes fans want to believe a Week 1 game between a Power Four school and a small school is already decided, there is a reason we play these games on the field, and not on paper.
Anyone remember 2024? The Northern Illinois Huskies went into South Bend and completely stunned the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in an upset no one saw coming.
The Hawkeyes, despite being the better team, have to be on high alert for this game, as the better team doesn’t always win if things start going sideways.
Iowa has one clear advantage over Northern Illinois
This is a classic case of not overthinking what works, which is something Kirk Ferentz and Iowa do very well. The Hawkeyes know what works for them, and they stick to it. That is all Iowa has to do in this one.
The projected starting defensive line for the Huskies comes in at 267.5 pounds. Iowa’s offensive line starters average an even 300 pounds across the board. That’s a 33.5-pound advantage for Iowa.
In a Week 1 game that figures to be warm, Iowa has to stick to its guns and lean on the Huskies for four quarters, wearing them down in the trenches.
This game doesn’t come down to the defense or the special teams; it is all on the offensive line in Week 1 to create running lanes for a backfield, which has the potential to go for over 300 rushing yards in this game.
With Iowa City averaging 80 degrees on September 5, Iowa should see carries for Kamari Moulton, L.J. Phillips Jr., Xavier Williams, and Nathan McNeil. And personally, hopefully the last two get the bulk of the carries to keep everyone fresh as they continue to develop as the younger duo.
What to expect from Iowa’s quarterback play in Week 1
Please, please, please, and I can’t say it enough, PLEASE, Iowa, do not go into this game without the quarterback competition resolved. Entering the regular season without a starter begs for trouble.
Whoever the starter is, though, should have a great opportunity to gain some confidence in this game. The Huskies are going to be forced to stack the box against Iowa’s ground game, which should provide plenty of one-on-one matchups outside.
The Hawkeyes shouldn’t be forced to throw it around the yard in this one, nor should they try to. With that, I don’t care to see the stats being impressive, but I want to see a high completion percentage and a willingness to get the ball to guys in different ways.
What do I mean by that? Tim Lester needs to mix in plenty of play-action, which should be Iowa’s bread and butter this year. He also needs to get his quarterback comfortable throwing between the numbers to tight end DJ Vonnahme. That’s how Iowa unlocks another aspect of this offense.
Riley Donald’s Week 1 Prediction
Listen, this game should be Iowa’s first chance to knock off the rust. It’s a harsh way to put it, but we are being realistic here.
I don’t think we see Iowa hang up 40 points or anything. In fact, I think it’s more likely we see Iowa score in the range of 21 points than running it up.
That isn’t a reason to panic, though. Iowa doesn’t blow out non-conference teams in ways you might expect. It’s not their thing. Iowa handles business and moves on immediately.
That’s what I predict here. Iowa should run for 250 yards or more on the ground, hold Northern Illinois under 200 yards of offense, maybe give up one or two good drives, but have a firm hold on this game, even if only up by 10 points.
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