Lewis Silverberg, 75, has intensely studied where independent shops are dying, where look-alike chains are dominating and where to get a great gelato. He has guidelines for success.
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Lewis Silverberg has studied every storefront in Vancouver. He says that over the decades he has walked by every one, making an inventory of each supermarket, hair salon, credit union and café.
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Silverberg, 75, has come to know which retail blocks are a success, and which are struggling.
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He knows where storefront vacancies are getting out of hand, where independent shops are dying, where look-alike chains are dominating and where to get a great gelato.
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In the complex retail world of the city of Vancouver, there are many signs of distress.
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Over the years the professional urban planner has advanced a simple theory: “What gives neighbourhoods their character are their ‘high streets,’ their shopping areas.”
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But in Vancouver — where many citizens worry city council is overriding established neighbourhoods with one-size-fits-all retail upzoning — the relationship between the city’s unique communities and its high streets, a widely used British term, is in a state of anxious flux.
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Where can we go for a grocer, a butcher, a baker? Where to head for a haircut or birthday balloons? Is a friendly restaurant or sidewalk café nearby? Can we walk to buy garden plants, a screwdriver or new glasses — not to mention, dare we dream, a book?
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These days, for residents in many Vancouver neighbourhoods, it’s becoming harder to purchase things and services at land-based shops. There may be more fitness studios and big real-estate offices, but there are fewer independent electronic shops and clothing stores.
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In the midst of the agitation, the City of Vancouver paved the way for last month’s opening of the high-end Oakridge Park shopping centre.
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Councillors are also holding a public hearing July 14 to pursue their aim to create 17 new high-density “villages,” which would flood new retail space into neighbourhoods that already have troubled shops.
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In a 2021 report on small business in Vancouver, Silverberg and a team tracked what was happening to shops in Marpole, Collingwood, Hastings North, West Broadway, South Granville, and Commercial Drive.
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They discovered a seven per cent overall decline in a decade in active retail outlets. They recorded a 13 per cent decrease in independent storefronts; a 24 per cent jump in chain outlets and a 30 per cent drop in so-called “comparison-goods” retailers (such as furniture and apparel stores that battle with e-commerce). One of the few upsides was a 16 per cent jump in “food and beverage establishments.”
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This year the Downtown Vancouver Business Improvement Association reported on more trouble. Foot traffic in the city’s core dropped 18 per cent in 2024. In the Homer and Hastings streets area almost two out of 10 storefronts are empty. On downtown’s Granville Street retail vacancies run at a disturbing three in 10.
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When Postmedia News asked the city for an update on these and related figures, a communications person said staff wouldn’t answer because a new “storefronts report” may go to council in July.
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Since Silverberg hasn’t done comprehensive cross-city research himself in the past year, he wouldn’t venture to say how retail is generally doing in the city. He did say, however, that some shopping nodes are doing well, while some aren’t. Specifics matter.
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During a career in which he continues to consult for both government and private business, Silverberg can’t emphasize enough the many subtle differences, including word of mouth, that go into what makes one shopping district work and another fall flat.
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Indeed, Silverberg has learned flourishing shopping districts are often confined to zones of just two or three city blocks. Whether around 41st Avenue and East Boulevard, Granville and Broadway, Commercial Drive and 1st, or Joyce and Kingsway, he can point to adjoining retail blocks — two of which are thriving and, immediately next door, two of which are stagnating.
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Nevertheless, Silverberg has guidelines for success. A thriving neighbourhood shopping area almost always has to have a strong anchor tenant, he said, typically a supermarket.
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And there is a need for a minimum surrounding population density, which he and colleagues calculated at about 40 people per square city block. Retail districts also need to be accessible by all modes of transportation, provide parking and have proactive business organizations.
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While many residents are perturbed that Oakridge Park’s newly opened shopping mall focuses on the luxury market, with about a dozen elite jewelry stores, Silverberg visited it last week and didn’t come away riled.
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He thought it was “beautifully done,” and will do better when anchor tenants arrive. They include a giant Safeway, a large B.C. Liquor Store, a public library and a community centre. And, he added, if Oakridge Park’s mall does poorly in years to come, the owner, QuadReal, can always “tweak” the retail mix.
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Silverberg is more concerned about Vancouver’s villages plan, which envisions 17 new retail centres at street intersections where there are now a scattering of shops. He doesn’t understand the logic behind why the sites were chosen.
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The plan, he said, appears to break the cardinal rule of retail planning: “Thou shall not create competition with existing neighbourhoods,” especially with established commercial centres. It’s far better to retain an existing store tenant, he says, than to find a new one.
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A coalition of 30 prominent Metro Vancouver urbanists and scholars, known as Housing Reset, agree. Last week they issued a statement lamenting how the villages concept will add one million more square feet of retail space to the city.
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“Many established neighbourhood/commercial corridors, all within walking distance from these villages, already suffer 10-to-15-per-cent storefront vacancy rates and thus will be impacted very negatively by this plan to add substantially more commercial shopping areas as competition,” said their public letter.
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While the vibrancy of any retail district hinges on several factors, in the end Silverberg and his planning colleagues agree there is one fundamental test.
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And that is to count the storefront vacancies in any commercial zone. If more than one in 10 is empty it’s likely that a shopping district is in serious trouble.
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As Silverberg rightly says: “Everybody knows that, intuitively.”
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