The No. 21-ranked Ducks’ season has not lived up to its sky-high preseason expectations so far. Across the Ducks’ first two games, Oregon saw a closer-than-anticipated win over Boise State that caused the Ducks to slide from No. 2 to No. 6 in the AP poll, followed by what is arguably the worst loss of the Dan Lanning era in Eugene, with Oregon upset by unranked Oklahoma State in a game that caused the Ducks to slide all the way down to No. 21 in the AP poll.
With a loss that detrimental this early in the season, where do the Ducks stand? Can they still make the playoffs, or is even the hope of taking home a national championship out of the picture?
Lanning believes every goal is still in front of this team, but he doesn’t want his players looking too far ahead.
“Stop looking in the future. Everybody wants to make a prediction before the season starts. You know, it doesn’t matter until you play the games. We’ve seen it every year with teams that are supposed to be good that aren’t good,” Lanning said.
“We have the capability to be good,” he continued. “We have good enough players. We have good enough coaches.”
The Ducks have the 23rd-highest chance to make the College Football Playoff with a 1.2 percent chance, per ESPN’s College Football Power Index. What was once a team many never doubted the probability of making the playoffs now has very little margin for error if it wants to do so.
But on Monday, ahead of Oregon’s final nonconference matchup with Boise State, Lanning took accountability and acknowledged that getting back on track starts at the top with him.
“I haven’t done a good enough job, so I know I can do better. So that’s where it starts,” said Lanning.
“And guess what? If I do better, I bet this team gets better, right? And if this team gets better and we play like we’re capable of playing, then we could have a team that could be pretty good,” he added. “But it doesn’t matter unless we focus on today. Let’s stop worrying about tomorrow. Let’s stop worrying about the end of the season. Let’s worry about today.”
Why Dan Lanning’s Message Wasn’t Just a Coaching Cliché
“Take it one week at a time” can sound like one of those things coaches say because they are supposed to say it. But in Oregon’s case, Lanning’s message about looking ahead is more than just a standard response after a loss.
The Ducks entered Stillwater as heavy favorites after beating Oklahoma State 69-3 the year before. With the talent Oregon had returning and the expectations surrounding this team, there was plenty of reason for the Ducks to believe they would be able to walk into Boone Pickens Stadium and take care of business.
Instead, Oregon was pushed around.
The Ducks managed just 90 rushing yards on 30 carries, while Oklahoma State put up 554 total yards and scored 39 points. The way the Ducks lost showed a team that wasn’t prepared, nor appeared disciplined.
Oklahoma State was able to take advantage of mistakes that a team with Oregon’s expectations can’t afford to make. The Cowboys also picked up on tendencies from Oregon’s offensive line, including differences in stances that helped them identify whether the Ducks were running or passing.
Those aren’t the types of details Oregon can afford to overlook, especially with Big Ten play still ahead. But as bad as the loss looked, there is a different way to look at what happened in Stillwater.
Oregon needed to be reminded that its talent and preseason expectations weren’t going to win games for it.
Boise State nearly did that in Week 1, but Oregon still walked away with a win. Oklahoma State didn’t give the Ducks that same way out. Oregon was outplayed, outmuscled and outprepared, and there isn’t really a way to explain that away.
Oregon was always going to have to find out what kind of team it was beyond the preseason hype. Now the Ducks have a loss that exposed the areas they need to fix before the games become even more important.
If Oregon can use what happened in Stillwater to clean up its line play, tackling, penalties and overall attention to detail, the loss doesn’t have to define the season.
Oregon’s Playoff Hopes Took a Hit, But Its Goals Are Still Within Reach
The loss in Stillwater certainly changed the outlook for Oregon, but it didn’t erase everything the Ducks were playing for entering the season.
Oregon’s path to the College Football Playoff is much harder now. The Ducks have gone from being one of the teams expected to compete for a national championship to a team that has already used up its margin for error.
The Ducks still have a clean slate in Big Ten play. If Oregon can run through its conference schedule and put itself in position to compete for a Big Ten Championship, the Ducks will have a path back into the playoff conversation.
A strong Big Ten record paired with wins over some of the conference’s best teams could still give Oregon a strong enough résumé to earn an at-large spot. The difference now is that the Ducks can’t afford to keep giving the selection committee reasons to question them.
Oklahoma State’s season could also play a role in how Oregon’s résumé looks by the end of the year. If the Cowboys go on to dominate in the Big 12, the loss becomes easier for the selection committee to view as a road loss to a quality opponent. If Oklahoma State struggles the rest of the way, it becomes a much more damaging loss for Oregon.
But Oregon can’t control what Oklahoma State does. The Ducks can only control themselves.
They need to get more consistent offensively, especially after converting just 5-of-14 third downs against Oklahoma State. They need to clean up the defensive issues that allowed the Cowboys to score 39 points, and they need to eliminate the penalties and self-inflicted mistakes that have followed them through the first two games.
The Ducks’ preseason expectations may be gone, but their season isn’t quite yet.
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