Could B.C. be headed for a record-breaking mild winter?

British Columbians could be in for an unusually mild winter, with a powerful El Niño potentially contributing to record-breaking warm temperatures across the country.

Environment Canada’s seasonal forecast points to a high chance of warmer-than-average conditions across the country, according to meteorologist Nathan Gillet.

“It’s going to be warmer than average across the country. That’s particularly the case on the coast of B.C.; there’s a high chance of it being mild here this winter,” he said, adding B.C. is also expected to get less snow than normal.

The forecast comes as an exceptionally strong El Niño — a climate phenomenon marked by warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean — is predicted to peak at the end of this year and “decay” through to the spring, said Gillett.

El Niño tends to cause milder-than-usual conditions across Canada, typically more pronounced in the west coast. Environment Canada says the strong El Niño, coupled with a long-term warming trend and seasonal forecast, all point toward a high chance of a record-setting mild winter.

Canada’s warmest winter on record was in 2023-24, another El Niño year. That El Niño, Gillett noted, wasn’t as strong as the one developing now.

That season, temperatures in Canada averaged 5.2 C above the baseline average, surpassing the previous record set in 2009-10 by about 1.1 C.

That warmth, however, was not uniform across the country. B.C. experienced temperatures between 1.5 and 2.5 C above the baseline average, significantly less than other parts of Central Canada, which recorded a 6.5 C gap.

A forecast for a milder winter does not mean Canadians can put their snow shovels away.

Seasonal predictions come with uncertainty, Gillett cautioned. These are probabilistic forecasts that indicate whether above-, near- or below-normal conditions are favoured, rather than precise predictions of what temperatures will be.

Local weather still depends on storms, Arctic air outbreaks and other conditions. “We can get cold snaps possible anywhere in the country. We can’t rule it out,” he said.

Although El Niño is often associated with below-normal rainfall and snowfall, its clearest influence is on temperatures. In B.C., milder conditions could mean precipitation that would otherwise fall as snow is more likely to arrive as rain, particularly at lower elevations.

The Weather Network has issued a preliminary seasonal forecast, predicting a winer that will “lean mild.”

The Weather Network’s forecast reports confidence in a mild December, which could feel like an extension of fall, but January and February are less certain. “The key question is whether El Niño remains dominant,” it said. “If it fades quickly enough, winter will attempt a comeback or stronger finish.”

A mild winter this year would follow unusually warm temperatures on B.C.’s South Coast last year when lack of snow delayed the start of the ski season and Vancouver experienced its second-warmest winter on record.

chchan@postmedia.com